HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Irene wasn't 952 at landfall though. Bob was 962 (RI) Gloria was 961 (NY) Carol was 955 (NY) I thought it was 951 at Cape Lookout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 yea that would be bad, why are west side winds so low on the GGem? Probably due to a number of factors..friction reduction and less isallobaric component Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The core of Sandy is small, yet check out how vast the polarward outflow canopy is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Worst case for Boston would be a GGEM scenario. Having it back in from the ESE going over the Cape into RI. If by worst, you mean most fun, then, yes. Bring it on, says I. Likes my storms, I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I thought it was 951 at Cape Lookout? Oh yeah in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Oh yeah in NC (TBH I had to look it up...lol) When are you working? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 yea that would be bad, why are west side winds so low on the GGem? Yes pls....this would be perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I still find it hard to be so overly excited for such an extreme scenario here. Sure the foundation is being laid for that potential but this is still pretty far out there, so much can change. Sure the chances have vastly increased for a potent storm but that doesn't mean anything catastrophic...could just mean our run of the mill type nor'easters. All we need is for this thing not to phase and we can forget about a SLP of such intense magnitude. Always be skeptical of phasing this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Oh yeah in NC What was it up in LI/NYC? mid 960s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Maybe we can hit the Carolinas by Friday. Hopefully it doesnt come close to the Carolina's. This is beginning to get a little scary since it does seem to be coming farther south on each model cycle. If it did come close to this area we'd probably lose our home since there are many trees around and the home isnt well built. Any wind over 70-80 mph would be bad with or without the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What was it up in LI/NYC? mid 960s? Yeah 965mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Boy I wish we still had Walt Drag at BOX. Can only imagine his AFDs....is he still at Philly NWS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I like the 12z GFS solution... lol. Wow 320 users in the New England thread right now....where'd all these people come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sandy is really fanning out now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Great! widespread power grid failure from DC to Porltand Maine, then ...hard freeze Upslope snow signal there on the backside! Woooot. NW flow CAA and cyclonic left over moisture with a vort moving overhead. You guys will all be without power, while I'm getting powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 THE MOSTLY LIKELY TRACK WILL BETWEEN NJ AND SNE AREA AND OVER LONG ISLAND AREA FOR THE STORM . ECWMF HAS MORE RUNS INTO SNE AREA THE LAST FOUR DAYS . It would be helpful if you added where are you pulling that from? What time? Into CT at hr 156. Dropping leaves all over the lawns in Tolland. The ensemble mean is just crawling. Probably too slow by a good margin IMO. Given how everything (or at least a lot) else has apparently sped up today, should that be a red flag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Im not going to be in SW CT for this one, but man I kinda wish I was. March 2010 will be given a good run for its money. Hopefully CL&P is ready to go if the models verify verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Upslope snow signal there on the backside! Woooot. NW flow CAA and cyclonic left over moisture with a vort moving overhead. You guys will all be without power, while I'm getting powder. That same flow is going to get some lake effect regions pumping as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 if only cuba didn't exist . . . sandy is stack'd and ready to roll, and there is freakin cuba i remember more times than nough storms seemingly taking longer over cuba then they are supposed to and never quite moving due N of the SE coast. usually pull'd NW for some reason as they try to exit that little northern part of the coast in Extreme east cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 433 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-252045- HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA- WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA- SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA- NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH- WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI- WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI- 433 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK OF A POST-TROPICAL SANDY MAKING EITHER A CLOSE PASS /STRONG WINDS...HIGH SEAS...POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES/...OR A DIRECT HIT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH DOWNED TREES AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES...HIGH SEAS AND STORM SURGE RESULTING IN BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING...AND FINALLY HEAVY RAINS RESULTING IN INTERIOR FLOODING/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well with so much disagreement between Ops and so much agreement between ENS the sensible weather and impacts from VA to Maine are seriously still in question. Hopefully we get a clearer consensus with the special balloon soundings and aircraft data. Friday is go day for me and starting the prep of my facility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well with so much disagreement between Ops and so much agreement between ENS the sensible weather and impacts from VA to Maine are seriously still in question. Hopefully we get a clearer consensus with the special balloon soundings and aircraft data. Friday is go day for me and starting the prep of my facility. I think the consensus is actualy pretty impressive for a 120 hour forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This is from the BOX AFD this afternoon. Reminds me of the thinking prior to last October's chance of snow. BUT AM HESITANT TO BUY INTO THE MAJORITY OF SOLNS...THE STORM IS TAKING ON A HISTORICAL PRECEDENT COMPARED TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF OTHER POST-TROPICAL SYSTEMS DURING THE AUTUMN MONTHS. WITH REGARDS TO THE LITERARY DISCUSSION YESTERDAY...THE POST-TROPICAL TRACK OF SANDY IS SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS TO BENCHMARK TRACKS OF THE GREAT GALE OF 1878 AND HURRICANE HAZEL IN 1954 /THOUGH HAZEL DID EXHIBIT A SLIGHT WESTWARD LEAN IT IS TRACK/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's amazing how little the media is talking about this considering the threat the models show as well as the upcoming election... Take this article http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/24/tropical-storm-sandy-heads-for-jamaica-gets-stronger/?hpt=hp_t3 for example: Sandy is not expected to hit the United States, though there is a tropical storm watch for the Florida coast from the Volusia/Brevard county line to Craig Key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This is from the BOX AFD this afternoon. Reminds me of the thinking prior to last October's chance of snow. BUT AM HESITANT TO BUY INTO THE MAJORITY OF SOLNS...THE STORM IS TAKING ON A HISTORICAL PRECEDENT COMPARED TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF OTHER POST-TROPICAL SYSTEMS DURING THE AUTUMN MONTHS. WITH REGARDS TO THE LITERARY DISCUSSION YESTERDAY...THE POST-TROPICAL TRACK OF SANDY IS SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS TO BENCHMARK TRACKS OF THE GREAT GALE OF 1878 AND HURRICANE HAZEL IN 1954 /THOUGH HAZEL DID EXHIBIT A SLIGHT WESTWARD LEAN IT IS TRACK/. Is that supposed to read "analagous" and not "anomalous"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's amazing how little the media is talking about this considering the threat the models show as well as the upcoming election... Take this article http://news.blogs.cn...nger/?hpt=hp_t3 for example: [/size][/font][/color] What does this storm have to do with an election on November 6th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 As far as climo is concerned when you're dealing with a synoptic pattern where the troughing is forecasing to be a few SD's below average and such strong blocking you almost have to throw climo out here in a sense. Anomalous things are bound to happen in anomalous patterns...it's not like the forecasted pattern is anything of normality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Unprecedented? SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1813Z WED OCT 24 2012 DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM... ***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS*** WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... -------------------------------------- THE RELEASE SCHEDULE WILL BE EVALUATED AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES... Done for Irene too I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think the consensus is actualy pretty impressive for a 120 hour forecast. Op wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's amazing how little the media is talking about this considering the threat the models show as well as the upcoming election... Take this article http://news.blogs.cn...nger/?hpt=hp_t3 for example: [/size][/font][/color] Really? I was going to say the opposite... starting yesterday I was amazed at how much New England media was talking about this storm 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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