CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The ensemble mean is just crawling. Probably too slow by a good margin IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Into CT at hr 156. While the op is over Lake Ontario at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The ensemble mean is just crawling. Probably too slow by a good margin IMO. Sort of capture and stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Courtesy of Dr. Maue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Its probably a tug of war between less phased and more phased solutions so the mean crawls. Sort of capture and stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 the euro's low level (925) wind fields are impressive. at hr 126, with center a bit S of ACY/Cape May region, it has 60 knot winds all the way into the GOM, 75 knots to ACK...actually stronger further removed from the center. Isn't that pretty typical of transitioning TCs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Its probably a tug of war between less phased and more phased solutions so the mean crawls. Not too much spread though if you assume rather tighter look to MSLP, but there must be some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sort of capture and stalls. Yeah I think we're starting to get quite a bit of spread post 00z Tuesday so the stall on the ensemble mean doesn't really have a physical meaning other than the spread in the models post landfall... some cutting west... some going north... some jogging NNE a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 For Boston - what is the most dire scenario? This crossing LI or a little more east...like into RI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Into CT at hr 156. I think the reason the OP run was so far south compared to its previous run was because of how far west it pushed early on (72-85 area). I imagine the ens doesn't show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Isn't that pretty typical of transitioning TCs? Yeah, Look at 950-850 winds and you get an idea, not just srfc wind product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sort of capture and stalls. Big breezy rain dumper? Won't a slower speed negate some of the impact on one end/make it worse for others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 338 online in New England attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think the reason the OP run was so far south compared to its previous run was because of how far west it pushed early on (72-85 area). I imagine the ens doesn't show this. It;s because of it being a little east of the op after hr 48, but the op just gets phase happy despite a rather comparable looking trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Big breezy rain dumper? Won't a slower speed negate some of the impact on one end/make it worse for others? I think because it captures it, it slows it down once it hits LI. It's also a mean, so some members probably slow the mean down. I'm sure in real life it may be moving faster. Also as we all have said..it's 6 days out and a lot can happen. We need time for specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not important... ensemble mean intensity doesn't tell you much of anything lol Sure it does, like Wes said seeing a means in the 970 range speak volumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 See Brian Lovern comment on my FB page. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackjake Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Here is what I would do: If this holds stay through Saturday in the runs (as in, confidence interval exceeds 60 whatever % at that point in time) I would consider throwing some goods and the fam into the old SUV and heading off the Island(s). ACK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 A Tim Kelley tweet: "oh.. sub 930.. that's nice. Irene was 952, Halloween Storm '91 972, Blizzard '78 980 (Ohio Blizzard 1978 953, Carol '54 957 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Tracking right over my house in Brooklyn CT. Might as well just wash the entire structure into my basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 NOGAPS 12z run from today 84,96,108 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 A Tim Kelley tweet: "oh.. sub 930.. that's nice. Irene was 952, Halloween Storm '91 972, Blizzard '78 980 (Ohio Blizzard 1978 953, Carol '54 957 " Irene wasn't 952 at landfall though. Bob was 962 (RI) Gloria was 961 (NY) Carol was 955 (NY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 See Brian Lovern comment on my FB page. Wow Canto strophic!!! LOL, Catostrophic LOL try one more time, Yea one more day of this and I am in prep mode. Op runs are not epic for us , weak side with GFS and North of anything brutal on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Should be a good bookmark for the next few days: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_east_full+24 Don't try this on dial-up, it's a big animation of visible satellite images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Worst case for Boston would be a GGEM scenario. Having it back in from the ESE going over the Cape into RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Andy... nogaps is early. Not a shock I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Anyone not prepping for disaster is foolish IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Worst case for Boston would be a GGEM scenario. Having it back in from the ESE going over the Cape into RI. yea that would be bad, why are west side winds so low on the GGem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Andy... nogaps is early. Not a shock I guess. Yes it is I still think sooner onset prior to capture then deceleration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 If Jamaica weren't that I wonder if Sandy would made a run at major. Weather History: Did you know that... Mitch officially became a hurricane on this date in 1998 south of Jamaica in the Caribbean Sea. A rapid intensificantion period followed where the storm's central pressure dropped 52 mb to 924 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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