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Hurricane Sandy/Potential EC Event Discussion Part II


free_man

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Sort of capture and stalls.

Yeah I think we're starting to get quite a bit of spread post 00z Tuesday so the stall on the ensemble mean doesn't really have a physical meaning other than the spread in the models post landfall... some cutting west... some going north... some jogging NNE a bit?

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I think the reason the OP run was so far south compared to its previous run was because of how far west it pushed early on (72-85 area).

I imagine the ens doesn't show this.

It;s because of it being a little east of the op after hr 48, but the op just gets phase happy despite a rather comparable looking trough.

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Big breezy rain dumper? Won't a slower speed negate some of the impact on one end/make it worse for others?

I think because it captures it, it slows it down once it hits LI. It's also a mean, so some members probably slow the mean down. I'm sure in real life it may be moving faster.

Also as we all have said..it's 6 days out and a lot can happen. We need time for specifics.

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