PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Its 500 millibar height tendencies (as well as the UK's which has a very similar scenario to the GFS') do not support a NE motion. Huh? Earlier in the GFS run, the 500 mb plot does support a NE motion, but when Sandy makes landfall in Maine, it is doing so from the SE and moving NW with an eventual westward turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wasn't it in Central or North Jersey last night's 0z run? It's definitely been moving S and W for sure though No it was pretty far east last night too. I don't think it will be as far east as the Ukie shows, but its something that should be kept in mind. The Euro is the SW outlier right now...Ukie the NE outlier...GFS/GGEM/NOGAPS/JMA are all in between as well as the ensembles. Euro has the most skill and shoul dbe weighted the most...but that is a relative term at 120-144 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTSkywarn Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Very worrisome storm. Listen, I need to take the Bridgeport, CT to Port Jefferson Long Island Ferry on 7 AM Tuesday morning. Please tell me the ferry service will still be running. I've got a job interview down there. Hopefully the GFS model works out as a miss as at least far enough east so the ferry service is still running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Through 96 hour Euro Ensemble mean is almost identical to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Kevin is sweating bullets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 that thing has been steadfast. That track would make most sense given setup I {gulp} agree with you in principle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 If that happens, it is possible HPC will still be issuing advisories on a "Sandy" and technically it would be declared Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy... so there is certainly some leeway on the definition. That would be a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Huh? Earlier in the GFS run, the 500 mb plot does support a NE motion, but when Sandy makes landfall in Maine, it is doing so from the SE and moving NW with an eventual westward turn. The height tendencies and anomalies of them support a more poleward motion versus east of poleward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Very worrisome storm. Listen, I need to take the Bridgeport, CT to Port Jefferson Long Island Ferry on 7 AM Tuesday morning. Please tell me the ferry service will still be running. I've got a job interview down there. Hopefully the GFS model works out as a miss as at least far enough east so the ferry service is still running. Yep, it's all about you....come on dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 EC ensembles maybe a hair west of 00z at hr 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's a tough call folks. Really tough!! On the one hand, you certainly do not want to instill panic. Less than that, you do not want to raise awareness to a fever pitch, and then have it all crumble - that serves as an immeasurable detriment in my mind, because the next "apocalypse" may not miss, and that same target demographic is likely going to be ill-prepared to trust those charged with the responsibility to warn them. Personally, I'm a little spooked by this one. I don't like the fact that this was so vividly visualized 5 days ago, is/was backed by large mass field modal changes, and now the operational groups are clustering on a unique sort of impact that fits so well into that visualization. Here is what I would do: If this holds stay through Saturday in the runs (as in, confidence interval exceeds 60 whatever % at that point in time) I would consider throwing some goods and the fam into the old SUV and heading off the Island(s). I suspect re-analysis would prove this is different than Hazel, or 1938 for a few glaring reasons having to do with timing and intensity differentials during asymmetric phase transitions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The Euro has evidently picked up the same westward jolt from the new estimates of the intensity of the Greenland block -- but at ever-shortening time frames one is well advised to adopt a model compromise, if you like the Euro a lot go 60-20-20 which takes a 942 mb low over NYC, if you like the others a bit more (40-30-30) then your track is central LI to w CT at 944 mbs. Those are not currently on any given model but would be high impact for southern New England. Too soon to say all clear but with this trend the other end of the spectrum is a NC landfall I suppose -- perhaps Hazel was the right analogue. Please do remember that the 1938 hurricane was 938... at least, we think it was. No telling how accurate those instruments were 74 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 EC ensembles maybe a hair west of 00z at hr 126. Yes and not as west as 12z op either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 EC ensembles maybe a hair west of 00z at hr 126. Where are you getting the ECEN from, Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Where are you getting the ECEN from, Scott? At work, WSI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 EC ens are a bit hit for SNE. Between op and 00z ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yes and not as west as 12z op either Heading NW just SE of BM at hr 138. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 At work, WSI. :-( Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Tornado threat with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Just se of LI at hr 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Practically over ern LI at hr 150, close to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z GEFS Looks like nuclear subs attacking the East Coast a la War Games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 EC ens are a bit hit for SNE. Between op and 00z ensemble mean. intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Tornado threat with this? Quite possible for some weak spinups anywhere in the right front quadrant of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I always love it when an eye opens up on land, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 EC ens are a bit hit for SNE. Between op and 00z ensemble mean. A lot closer to the 00z ens than the 12z op. Looks like the mean gets near the BM or maybe just inside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Just se of LI at hr 144. Sounds not too dissimilar than the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 intensity? Not important... ensemble mean intensity doesn't tell you much of anything lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 the euro's low level (925) wind fields are impressive. at hr 126, with center a bit S of ACY/Cape May region, it has 60 knot winds all the way into the GOM, 75 knots to ACK...actually stronger further removed from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Into CT at hr 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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