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Hurricane Sandy/Potential EC Event Discussion Part II


free_man

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I don't think this can be overstated. Especially when talking about details of this interaction between Sandy and the PJ.

A great meteorologist once told me if you DON'T want to be hit by a storm you want to be in the bullseye at Day 5...well we don't really have a bullseye right now with landfall points differing but its sure possible this could go into Virginia or Maine.

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I don't think this can be overstated. Especially when talking about details of this interaction between Sandy and the PJ.

True but I'd be stunned if it didn't hit someone along the east coast. The block gives it more wiggle room sort of like the feb 5, 2010 event which the models nailed that there would be a big storm a week ahead of the storm. We did know all the details until we got closer to the event and could then pretty much rule out new england.

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True but I'd be stunned if it didn't hit someone along the east coast. The block gives it more wiggle room sort of like the feb 5, 2010 event which the models nailed that there would be a big storm a week ahead of the storm. We did know all the details until we got closer to the event and could then pretty much rule out new england.

I agree with this. The block is so strong and well positioned that I do think the NE US is in the crosshairs. Where it will be, how strong, and what impacts is TBD.

The consensus for such a high anomalous setup is very impressive IMO.

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True but I'd be stunned if it didn't hit someone along the east coast. The block gives it more wiggle room sort of like the feb 5, 2010 event which the models nailed that there would be a big storm a week ahead of the storm. We did know all the details until we got closer to the event and could then pretty much rule out new england.

Oh I agree with that. The block in the N ATL gives a lot of margin for error in the storm hitting somebody...but this probably could go 300-400 miles in any direction right now. It could hit BOS while moving WSW, hit Halifax, and then PWM, or hit ORF/HSE going NNW...so many different solutions with so many different impacts.

I think its becoming more and more likely though that this wont escape out to sea. That block is just way too strong the way it is depicted.

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True but I'd be stunned if it didn't hit someone along the east coast. The block gives it more wiggle room sort of like the feb 5, 2010 event which the models nailed that there would be a big storm a week ahead of the storm. We did know all the details until we got closer to the event and could then pretty much rule out new england.

I agree, I think that is probably the most evident thing that can be taken out of these runs is someone looks to get hit somewhere on the EC

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I wonder how many crazy people will attempt to surf. Although being end of October not sure how many people usually surf that time of year.

My buddy is a big surfer and says the best surfing is generally in Oct, Nov and Dec in NJ.

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A great meteorologist once told me if you DON'T want to be hit by a storm you want to be in the bullseye at Day 5...well we don't really have a bullseye right now with landfall points differing but its sure possible this could go into Virginia or Maine.

I was in the bullseye for the day 5 forecast for Hurricane Dennis...and I ended up being about 2 miles west of the bullseye.

Basically, that is a terrible rule to go by. It's especially too far out to be determining "bullseyes". Right now, the only thing we can determine is that there is a moderate to high chance that somewhere between NC and NS will be hit by a major storm. Where it goes specifically is still up in the air.

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I was in the bullseye for the day 5 forecast for Hurricane Dennis...and I ended up being about 2 miles west of the bullseye.

Basically, that is a terrible rule to go by. It's especially too far out to be determining "bullseyes". Right now, the only thing we can determine is that there is a moderate to high chance that somewhere between NC and NS will be hit by a major storm. Where it goes specifically is still up in the air.

NS thru BOSTON I think are out for LF...

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I was in the bullseye for the day 5 forecast for Hurricane Dennis...and I ended up being about 2 miles west of the bullseye.

Basically, that is a terrible rule to go by. It's especially too far out to be determining "bullseyes". Right now, the only thing we can determine is that there is a moderate to high chance that somewhere between NC and NS will be hit by a major storm. Where it goes specifically is still up in the air.

I could almost see that statement made in gest, though, sardonic - laughter.

Then later, if someone makes that a serious statement, sure - it would come across as really dumb.

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UKMET is also pretty far east. There's a lot of model spread. Obviously the Euro is the most skilled, but at D5, there is plenty of uncertainty even with the Euro. It just made a pretty big jump in its own right.

Wasn't it in Central or North Jersey last night's 0z run? It's definitely been moving S and W for sure though

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