ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think that is a fantastic point. Though, with nearly 5 days to go, the time frame is still pretty long. I don't think this can be overstated. Especially when talking about details of this interaction between Sandy and the PJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I don't think this can be overstated. Especially when talking about details of this interaction between Sandy and the PJ. Yup, All just weather porn ea run for a couple more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Pressure in the 930s isnt happening, even if this gets into the 960s that translates to 30-50 mph winds this time of year. We do not have a warm ocean to transport winds down to the group and lapse rates would be extremely poor with a huge inversion very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I don't think this can be overstated. Especially when talking about details of this interaction between Sandy and the PJ. A great meteorologist once told me if you DON'T want to be hit by a storm you want to be in the bullseye at Day 5...well we don't really have a bullseye right now with landfall points differing but its sure possible this could go into Virginia or Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I don't think this can be overstated. Especially when talking about details of this interaction between Sandy and the PJ. True but I'd be stunned if it didn't hit someone along the east coast. The block gives it more wiggle room sort of like the feb 5, 2010 event which the models nailed that there would be a big storm a week ahead of the storm. We did know all the details until we got closer to the event and could then pretty much rule out new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 True but I'd be stunned if it didn't hit someone along the east coast. The block gives it more wiggle room sort of like the feb 5, 2010 event which the models nailed that there would be a big storm a week ahead of the storm. We did know all the details until we got closer to the event and could then pretty much rule out new england. I agree with this. The block is so strong and well positioned that I do think the NE US is in the crosshairs. Where it will be, how strong, and what impacts is TBD. The consensus for such a high anomalous setup is very impressive IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Great! widespread power grid failure from DC to Porltand Maine, then ...hard freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 True but I'd be stunned if it didn't hit someone along the east coast. The block gives it more wiggle room sort of like the feb 5, 2010 event which the models nailed that there would be a big storm a week ahead of the storm. We did know all the details until we got closer to the event and could then pretty much rule out new england. Oh I agree with that. The block in the N ATL gives a lot of margin for error in the storm hitting somebody...but this probably could go 300-400 miles in any direction right now. It could hit BOS while moving WSW, hit Halifax, and then PWM, or hit ORF/HSE going NNW...so many different solutions with so many different impacts. I think its becoming more and more likely though that this wont escape out to sea. That block is just way too strong the way it is depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 If Jamaica weren't that I wonder if Sandy would made a run at major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 True but I'd be stunned if it didn't hit someone along the east coast. The block gives it more wiggle room sort of like the feb 5, 2010 event which the models nailed that there would be a big storm a week ahead of the storm. We did know all the details until we got closer to the event and could then pretty much rule out new england. I agree, I think that is probably the most evident thing that can be taken out of these runs is someone looks to get hit somewhere on the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dankil13 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I wonder how many crazy people will attempt to surf. Although being end of October not sure how many people usually surf that time of year. My buddy is a big surfer and says the best surfing is generally in Oct, Nov and Dec in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 If Jamaica weren't there I wonder if Sandy would made a run at major. Probably. Latest IR loop has a lovely look to it and the Caribb is like tropical cyclone steroids this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 A great meteorologist once told me if you DON'T want to be hit by a storm you want to be in the bullseye at Day 5...well we don't really have a bullseye right now with landfall points differing but its sure possible this could go into Virginia or Maine. I was in the bullseye for the day 5 forecast for Hurricane Dennis...and I ended up being about 2 miles west of the bullseye. Basically, that is a terrible rule to go by. It's especially too far out to be determining "bullseyes". Right now, the only thing we can determine is that there is a moderate to high chance that somewhere between NC and NS will be hit by a major storm. Where it goes specifically is still up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I was in the bullseye for the day 5 forecast for Hurricane Dennis...and I ended up being about 2 miles west of the bullseye. Basically, that is a terrible rule to go by. It's especially too far out to be determining "bullseyes". Right now, the only thing we can determine is that there is a moderate to high chance that somewhere between NC and NS will be hit by a major storm. Where it goes specifically is still up in the air. NS thru BOSTON I think are out for LF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 NS thru BOSTON I think are out for LF... Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Eye going across eastern Jamaica as we type - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 NS thru BOSTON I think are out for LF... Why would you say this when the 12Z GFS is centred over Portland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Great! widespread power grid failure from DC to Porltand Maine, then ...hard freeze That's just the scenario I was pondering earlier. At least they would not be mid-winter temps, still, not pleasant. Wood stove ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I was in the bullseye for the day 5 forecast for Hurricane Dennis...and I ended up being about 2 miles west of the bullseye. Basically, that is a terrible rule to go by. It's especially too far out to be determining "bullseyes". Right now, the only thing we can determine is that there is a moderate to high chance that somewhere between NC and NS will be hit by a major storm. Where it goes specifically is still up in the air. I could almost see that statement made in gest, though, sardonic - laughter. Then later, if someone makes that a serious statement, sure - it would come across as really dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Only reason I could see for a BOS north LF being ruled out is the blocking being severe? Which would favor an earlier turn NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 NOGAPS is much faster and more NORT shows acceleration in the 96hr to 120 hour period. Takes the low from east of Norfolk to JFK during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 UKMET is also pretty far east. There's a lot of model spread. Obviously the Euro is the most skilled, but at D5, there is plenty of uncertainty even with the Euro. It just made a pretty big jump in its own right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The other thing to notice and goes back to what Ryan said, is that it is also a bit less of a whiplash back west which does make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 THE MOSTLY LIKELY TRACK WILL BETWEEN NJ AND SNE AREA AND OVER LONG ISLAND AREA FOR THE STORM . ECWMF HAS MORE RUNS INTO SNE AREA THE LAST FOUR DAYS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Question is, how fast can it go before the block flexes its muscle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Why would you say this when the 12Z GFS is centred over Portland? Its 500 millibar height tendencies (as well as the UK's which has a very similar scenario to the GFS') do not support a NE motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 UKMET is also pretty far east. There's a lot of model spread. Obviously the Euro is the most skilled, but at D5, there is plenty of uncertainty even with the Euro. It just made a pretty big jump in its own right. Wasn't it in Central or North Jersey last night's 0z run? It's definitely been moving S and W for sure though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 NOGAPS is much faster and more NORT shows acceleration in the 96hr to 120 hour period. Takes the low from east of Norfolk to JFK during this time. that thing has been steadfast. That track would make most sense given setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Its 500 millibar height tendencies (as well as the UK's which has a very similar scenario to the GFS') do not support a NE motion. Yes... but... I do think the storm may lose enough longitude in first 72 hours to make things a bit interesting for even E NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 kingston airport Wind(mph) 116 116 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.