Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Hurricane Sandy/Potential EC Event Discussion Part II


free_man

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 967
  • Created
  • Last Reply

While the Euro solution would spare most of New England from a truly damaging event... it would be a disaster for NYC with coastal flooding.

that might be the most damaging solution overall since it hits a large part of the i-95 corridor hard. The coastal flooding would rival or exceed Dec. 1992 and Ash Wednesday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

snowshoe WV , may open season early on this run. would like to watch it from the 4500' foot bars at the summit

Worth noting that Lake Erie surface temperatures are close to 60F... Lake Ontario in the 50s... if significant cold air crosses the lakes in the right direction... oh boy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

that might be the most damaging solution overall since it hits a large part of the i-95 corridor hard. The coastal flooding would rival or exceed Dec. 1992 and Ash Wednesday.

I was thinking Ash Wednesday type although fetch was longer and tides higher but yea NJ gets smoked, not so sure about NYC, pretty far removed when winds die down, Euro verbatim.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unprecedented?

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

1813Z WED OCT 24 2012

DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF

HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED

BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL

DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE

SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR

REGION OR THE SDM...

***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS***

WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

--------------------------------------

THE RELEASE SCHEDULE WILL BE EVALUATED AS THE SITUATION

EVOLVES...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

IDK...the Euro's sfc wind maps did quite well with Irene I thought.

Not at this range they didn't, they showed 95-105 mph for NYC/LI because the MSLP was way overdone and the overally strength of storm. I still think this is more of a major coastal flooding issue than it is a catatostrophic wind event. I don't think anyone is seeing sustained hurricane winds with this as of now, if this was a CATIII storm right now I might feel differently.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not at this range they didn't, they showed 95-105 mph for NYC/LI because the MSLP was way overdone and the overally strength of storm. I still think this is more of a major coastal flooding issue than it is a catatostrophic wind event. I don't think anyone is seeing sustained hurricane winds with this as of now, if this was a CATIII storm right now I might feel differently.

Yeah coastal flooding certainly would be a major, major issue with this, especially when taking high tides into consideration.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro has evidently picked up the same westward jolt from the new estimates of the intensity of the Greenland block -- but at ever-shortening time frames one is well advised to adopt a model compromise, if you like the Euro a lot go 60-20-20 which takes a 942 mb low over NYC, if you like the others a bit more (40-30-30) then your track is central LI to w CT at 944 mbs. Those are not currently on any given model but would be high impact for southern New England. Too soon to say all clear but with this trend the other end of the spectrum is a NC landfall I suppose -- perhaps Hazel was the right analogue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro has evidently picked up the same westward jolt from the new estimates of the intensity of the Greenland block -- but at ever-shortening time frames one is well advised to adopt a model compromise, if you like the Euro a lot go 60-20-20 which takes a 942 mb low over NYC, if you like the others a bit more (40-30-30) then your track is central LI to w CT at 944 mbs. Those are not currently on any given model but would be high impact for southern New England. Too soon to say all clear but with this trend the other end of the spectrum is a NC landfall I suppose -- perhaps Hazel was the right analogue.

I think that is a fantastic point. Though, with nearly 5 days to go, the time frame is still pretty long.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...