CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Let me also say this... the amount of baroclinic forcing available for this storm is obscene given the progged jet configuration over the Atlantic. It is truly a special setup when you throw a perfectly timed hurricane into the mix. Bob Hart's cyclone phase space shows an extremely unusual (for a landfalling NE hurricane) extratropical transition to warm seclusion. That's frightening. Massive gale field, deep central pressure, and very tight central (warm) core. Was just looking at that. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I wasn't dead; the weather was just boring. But thank you, and who are you? And I just like the fact that the weather looks to be getting interesting again. I've been hankering for something utterly gloomy, like a day-long pounding rainstorm, complete with wind. This scenario is even more enticing, and the trend certainly seems favorable for some bumpy weather (though we're still a bit far out as far as time frame is concerned in my opinion; plenty of wiggle room especially when a large Caribbean island is yet to be passed). Also, has anyone made the Sandy Duncan one eye jokes yet? Because if not, we need to get on that. Sultan = Ginx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Writing's been on the wall if that happens... You could visualize the warm seclusion pretty easily in those depictions 2 days ago and in fact I recall Scott, you and I discussing it. Just before Sandy slips inside the "event horizon" - so to speak - she's warm core (or at least warmer core); but then capture happens - that doesn't automatically require in the physics that things start processing cold/baroclinic, uniformly. Warm seclusion seemed(s) an easy bet. All models have been showing the warm seclusion. That's why you're looking at these incredibly deep surface pressure... even on low(er) resolution ensemble members! I would still be wary of a phase that is east... if the block orients slightly difficult it's perfectly within the realm of possibility that a late phase whips the storm around or near the Maritimes. We know something special is going to happen. Unclear if it's in New Jersey or Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm thinking, Wes, that the capture with the gigantic pull west is a bit unlikely. Most storms that have been close to being absorbed seem to have gotten the tug a bit early and moved more S to N rather that such a circuitous route. it's unusual to have such a wwd track but not unheard of. If you look at Agnes is was track ne and got caught by an upper low and got pulled nwwd. The blocking in this case looks stronger than that. I guess we'll find out. You guys certainly probably have the best chance of getting a big hit but .....I'm less confident in knowing yet where to cut back on the model's spread of solutions except to say I don't see a complete miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Economic impacts could be massive as progged for the heart of the American economy (northeast). Could the election be delayed with a storm as currently modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sultan = Ginx Wow i didn't know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 it's unusual to have such a wwd track but not unheard of. If you look at Agnes is was track ne and got caught by an upper low and got pulled nwwd. The blocking in this case looks stronger than that. I guess we'll find out. You guys certainly probably have the best chance of getting a big hit but .....I'm less confident in knowing yet where to cut back on the model's spread of solutions except to say I don't see a complete miss. I agree. And yeah I do think we will (eventually) see a westerly jog. I guess I'm thinking that the storm won't get so far east in the first place. The GFS takes a really out of the way track to get to PWM lol. I could see the thing not losing as much longitude over the weekend and moving in general on a more straight trajectory. There are also some complex fujiwhara interactions that will be going on here between a whole series of unusually deep lows. That may add some additional uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sultan = Ginx Thank you. I suppose it has been quite a while since I've been around; gotta get caught up in time for snow (provided that we get some of it this year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Economic impacts could be massive as progged for the heart of the American economy (northeast). Could the election be delayed with a storm as currently modeled? Never, they'd figure something out, NH would of course be majorly subject to voter turnout issues obviously which could be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Let me also say this... the amount of baroclinic forcing available for this storm is obscene given the progged jet configuration over the Atlantic. It is truly a special setup when you throw a perfectly timed hurricane into the mix. Bob Hart's cyclone phase space shows an extremely unusual (for a landfalling NE hurricane) extratropical transition to warm seclusion. That's frightening. Massive gale field, deep central pressure, and very tight central (warm) core. Thanks for posting this, CT Rain. I've completely forgotten to refer to it... and you are right... something like this would be quite frightening... but also unique. I can't say I've ever seen a storm like this occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 ^^^ redonk. Any comparison storms in terms of transition (landfalling and non landfalling) that could be compared to? Don just made a comparison to the 1991 "Pefect Storm" in the climate forum. Both storms were driven by strong blocking (below -3 in both cases). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Interesting that you mention that. I was just commenting on how this situation reminds me of the sense of awe I had back in March 1993 when we started seeing these day 3-5 progs coming into the office showing this insane storm plowing into the eastern seaboard. We couldn't believe it at first, but the models kept insisting that something big was on the way.. run after run. A few days later... Superstorm 1993. That was back in the days before Internet and social media.. I can only imagine the hysteria this thing will bring if things keep trending the way they are. we had IRC in 93 , the chatter was incessant. Still a ways to go on this, agree with Ryan about the left hand turn being more of a parabolic turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro to 72...and it's west... 955.7 mb east of Cape Canaveral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Folks.. Text from Gibbs euro is Hazel/ 38 blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro might even go further SW on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Thanks for posting this, CT Rain. I've completely forgotten to refer to it... and you are right... something like this would be quite frightening... but also unique. I can't say I've ever seen a storm like this occur. There have been cases in the North Atlantic of storms strengthening during ET and going warm seclusion but none that I can think of in the Atl basin that have done so while threatening landfall. Atleast going from hurricane to warm seclusion in ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 S/w that catches is more amplified this run of the Euro compared to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro is going to be fast and huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro might even go further SW on this run. ZGive me a blow by blow as I don't see it until it gets to the psu site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 down to 951mb at 96 hours Euro is going to be fast and huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I guess Pete can forget about getting snow from this. Folks.. Text from Gibbs euro is Hazel/ 38 blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Just peaking at the 12z NOGAPS and from the looks of it, it's W of the other 12z guidance. Center looks to clip E FL than curl up around HAT and makes landfall somewhere in the NJ area. Tough to tell. http://www.meteo.psu...nogapsloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 There have been cases in the North Atlantic of storms strengthening during ET and going warm seclusion but none that I can think of in the Atl basin that have done so while threatening landfall. Atleast going from hurricane to warm seclusion in ET. Oh of course, it's just unique to see it happening so close to the coast... especially with the extremely low pressures that most of the models are depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Economic impacts could be massive as progged for the heart of the American economy (northeast). Could the election be delayed with a storm as currently modeled? I don't think there will be delays. Election Day is 11/6, not next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 ZGive me a blow by blow as I don't see it until it gets to the psu site. About 140 miles east of VA Beach at hr 114 heading NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro continues to look real good through 96, especially with the amplification of that trough to our west, really starts to dig it between 72-90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 These things never slow as much as some models like the GFS show. Once it gets picked up by the trough each successive run will probably speed it up as it barrels toward NYC or S. NE. Euro is going to be fast and huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Way SW, about to make landfall near Wallops island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I guess Pete can forget about getting snow from this. He may not even get cirrus if the euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 935mb at 120 holy***** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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