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Hurricane Sandy/Potential EC Event Discussion Part II


free_man

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are you staying up for the models tonight

Seeing the NAM virtually being identical to the Euro with regards to the upper air pattern over the US just opened my eyes a bit more. Not ready to jump on board and go gung-ho and call for an extreme event by any means but that possibility continues to be on the table.

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are you staying up for the models tonight

I was actually going to go to sleep like 30 minutes ago and wake up around 4-5 AM but seeing the 0z NAM and how similar to the euro some of the key features are I feel like I just took like 3 5-HR Energies.

I still am quite skeptical about any phasing going on, however, if the 0z Euro continues to show this tonight and with the 12z runs tomorrow along with some of the other global's we seriously would have to really taking this as a distinct possibility...still too early to go all out for the public but as Ryan and I said a little earlier if by Thursday that agreement is still there you gotta start getting the word out on the potential for something major.

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I was actually going to go to sleep like 30 minutes ago and wake up around 4-5 AM but seeing the 0z NAM and how similar to the euro some of the key features are I feel like I just took like 3 5-HR Energies.

I still am quite skeptical about any phasing going on, however, if the 0z Euro continues to show this tonight and with the 12z runs tomorrow along with some of the other global's we seriously would have to really taking this as a distinct possibility...still too early to go all out for the public but as Ryan and I said a little earlier if by Thursday that agreement is still there you gotta start getting the word out on the potential for something major.

I don't think the phasing is the issue - it's where. This will probably come down to some now-casting, but we'll know when the track of this puppy gets more certain.

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I don't think the phasing is the issue - it's where. This will probably come down to some now-casting, but we'll know when the track of this puppy gets more certain.

Should have clarified myself more with that comment...meant more along the line of just to our south, I agree that eventually this does end up phasing with the trough/jet.

I do agree though, this could come down to a nowcasting thing which really isn't uncommon when dealing with phasing situations. Hell, remember Feb '06...models pretty much at the last second all came onboard to major phasing occurring.

Once we become more certain with her track we should know quite a bit more.

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Pete Bouchard seems somewhat unimpressed:

"One model suggests that the storm will actually be absorbed by the jetstream right in the Mid Atlantic States this weekend. That is highly unusual (typically happens at high latitudes), and seems very heavy-handed. Last time I saw true phasing was during the Blizzard of '93 and of course, the Perfect Storm.

even if we do phase, the outcome will be MUCH weaker than either of those storms. Nonetheless, we're talking about a big wind and rain maker: torrents of tropical rain, winds to 50-60 mph, and coastal flooding/beach erosion."

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Pete Bouchard seems somewhat unimpressed:

"One model suggests that the storm will actually be absorbed by the jetstream right in the Mid Atlantic States this weekend. That is highly unusual (typically happens at high latitudes), and seems very heavy-handed. Last time I saw true phasing was during the Blizzard of '93 and of course, the Perfect Storm.

even if we do phase, the outcome will be MUCH weaker than either of those storms. Nonetheless, we're talking about a big wind and rain maker: torrents of tropical rain, winds to 50-60 mph, and coastal flooding/beach erosion."

That's pretty impressive though for a storm. I think that is more realistic as well ...but there is plenty of time for other solutions.

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That's pretty impressive though for a storm. I think that is more realistic as well ...but there is plenty of time for other solutions.

Yes it is...people may think 50-60 is meh but if it's over a long duration and a rain soaked ground along with areas which still have a quite a bit of leaves on the trees...that would do decent damage

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Pete Bouchard seems somewhat unimpressed:

"One model suggests that the storm will actually be absorbed by the jetstream right in the Mid Atlantic States this weekend. That is highly unusual (typically happens at high latitudes), and seems very heavy-handed. Last time I saw true phasing was during the Blizzard of '93 and of course, the Perfect Storm.

even if we do phase, the outcome will be MUCH weaker than either of those storms. Nonetheless, we're talking about a big wind and rain maker: torrents of tropical rain, winds to 50-60 mph, and coastal flooding/beach erosion."

He's notoriously conservative - that's a bias. Just sayin'

Also, the AO is heavily negative right now, which means the westerlies core is way south of normal; this sort of scenario is favored during that kind of set up - he seems to always play it safe, but that seems to negate this kind of consideration - not sure why.

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Sandy is also further west this run and the western US ridging is noticeably stronger than the previous run. It's going to be much closer this run. Still not enough to declare victory for the strong phasing solution though - we're still almost a week out, it's a guarantee that the models will keep changing around.

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Just some drastic differences between the 0z GFS and 12z GFS and through at least 96 HR I think you can make a case this run is better overall. One major difference is the timing of that second s/w which will provide to be of big significance...

Here is the 0z run...note the second s/w over NE

gfs_namer_087_500_vort_ht_s.gif

12z run...note the s/w is still over MT...

gfs_namer_099_500_vort_ht_s.gif

Would be better to see if the 0z GFS was stronger with that second s/w

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Not completely sure but just preliminarily looking at the GFS I think it may cave toward the euro here.

It definitely improved the environment to the NE and west of it with a better central US trough and the NATL ULL moving away for the blocking to commence. Still slides east after hr 108, so we need the trough a little sharper...but it was an improvement.

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Not completely sure but just preliminarily looking at the GFS I think it may cave toward the euro here.

Yep I think this is the one, if not it's very very close...instead of Nova Scotia, MA might cash in.

Edit: Nvm 120-126hr = EAST

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It definitely improved the environment to the NE and west of it with a better central US trough and the NATL ULL moving away for the blocking to commence. Still slides east after hr 108, so we need the trough a little sharper...but it was an improvement.

You have to wonder too if Sandy will really move as slow as the GFS is showing here...if Sandy's forward movement is any faster (which certainly becomes a possibility) than what the GFS shows we would see a completely different solution at the sfc.

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