Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This is just getting surreal. All these years we've waited for this Yup - last hurrah before Dec 21 2012 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 In all these years, i dont think i ever conjured up a situation like this in my head lol. It's my sickness that I have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 At this point in time even though were still several days away, I cant help but imagine the enormous media hysteria that is about to ensue, now that we have the gfs showing a semblance of the euro outcome...And can you imagine if sandy RI's into a major hurricane over the next 24 hours? lol.. by the way, Sandy really is taking off down in the Carribean right now it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GEFS into NYC/NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 And Sandy is stronger than modeled across all - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Christmas came early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I can only imagine the media hysteria that is about to begin.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I dont know about others out there, but ive ever seen a jet structure like this...I'm counting 2 left exit and 2 right entrance jets aiding the storm at hour 138... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 New vortex data message from Sandy: 000 URNT12 KNHC 241710 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 24/16:28:50Z B. 17 deg 20 min N 076 deg 46 min W C. 700 mb 2861 m D. 76 kt E. 086 deg 42 nm F. 174 deg 84 kt G. 083 deg 22 nm H. 973 mb I. 9 C / 3044 m J. 15 C / 3046 m K. 3 C / NA L. CLOSED M. C48 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 0.5 nm P. AF308 0418A SANDY OB 28 MAX FL WIND 86 KT SE QUAD 14:41:30Z ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 2nd blackout for Halloweenie in a row. Unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Holy crap on the GEFS. 970 ish on a mean!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 UKMET practically brings it from Bermuda to maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 regardless of exactly how it evolves one thing that is quite well agreed upon is a massive wind field...which really grows on the northern side of the advancing TC thanks to surface HP building in well north of the region. so you end up with a prolonged period of persistent, strengthening onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Holy crap on the GEFS. 970 ish on a mean!. Post the images pa-leeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GEFS into NYC/NJ It looks silly the way it does it.. tracks it out into the ATL at 120, then slams on the brakes and reverse into NYC at 144 and C PA at 156? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 regardless of exactly how it evolves one thing that is quite well agreed upon is a massive wind field...which really grows on the northern side of the advancing TC thanks to surface HP building in well north of the region. so you end up with a prolonged period of persistent, strengthening onshore flow. Gradient is sick. Something liek a track just south of SNE would be very bad for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 regardless of exactly how it evolves one thing that is quite well agreed upon is a massive wind field...which really grows on the northern side of the advancing TC thanks to surface HP building in well north of the region. so you end up with a prolonged period of persistent, strengthening onshore flow. Onshore flow = major concerns for coastal impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GEFS into NYC/NJ Good place for it right now. Especially if we see the fwd speed pick up more than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Was just looking at the Euro from last night, it's hitting NJ dead center trending from Montauk last night. Seems like that's the most likely way we lose this storm, not out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Good place for it right now. Especially if we see the fwd speed pick up more than modeled. Based on the spread it looks like there are some fast members... and some slow members... but all coming this way at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Would this be the most crippling/high impact east coast storm since March of 93 if it occurs as currently modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Gradient is sick. Something liek a track just south of SNE would be very bad for the coast. We'd see cane winds to the Canadian border with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Just a reminder to all. We are now in Storm Mode. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum-20/announcement-14-storm-mode-members-please-read/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The capture option seems to be more and more on the table, but when and where will it happen? Agree. Thinking sooner vs. later, i.e. farther south and west Closer to LI/NY Bight. I think now the media hype can truly begin. It's coming in full fury As a member of the media this is already an issue here at my job. ND wants comparison to Irene. I told him comparisions to storms past on a storm yet to hit is flat out stupid and also pointless for many reasons including the following: this is not Irene; past storms of significance affected areas differently (worse vs. not so bad) - this storm could be worse in areas that were not as adversely affected in Irene (or other storms) while areas that were may not be as bad as they were hit with Irene (or other storms). Not everyone who may watch us was here for these past storm(s). I also said avoid using "hype" words, huge, monstrous, etc. Just let us give out the necessary info and details in a clear, informative and non-obfuscative way. Always sucks when you have to battle and figure out a challenging wx scenario and also have to battle and appease idiots at work who think they know weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 UKMET practically brings it from Bermuda to maine. And most of its ensembles from 00z last night were to the lest/west of the OP run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 We'd see cane winds to the Canadian border with that. I think it depends on how tight the wind core is, but the wind field would certainly expand and mix down as Phil said. Heck Irene hit NYC and strongest winds were Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Good place for it right now. Especially if we see the fwd speed pick up more than modeled. Yup, May see landfall further north in later runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think it depends on how tight the wind core is, but the wind field would certainly expand and mix down as Phil said. Heck Irene hit NYC and strongest winds were Cape Cod. Scooter- do you think the SLOSH model would be run for this system or the the storm surge XT version? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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