usedtobe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 As Kevin said, HPC...specifically, the medium range discussion. I nearly fell out of my chair when I read that at work this morning!! Here's the URL for the medium range discussions... http://www.hpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdepd Better still, check out the day 3-7 hand progs, especially D7!!! http://www.hpc.ncep....medr/medr.shtml Click on CONUS view. I'm sure some of you have already seen these. --Turtle the hpc forecast is pretty good stab at a position. I'm not sold on the lunar influence on storms though it sure can make the coastal flooding a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 if sandy was a category 4/5 (even 3 ) beast in the bahamas i would be more concerned about the armageddon option model runs, but what is the uppler level of realisticly expected winds if a strong tropical storm is getting phased into a mid latitude negatively tilting trough = ? there maybe something i'm missing but i'm just wondering Lots of factors go into answering your question....a few being: -Sharpness of intercepting trough, and how "perfectly" the phase occurs. -Where the phasing occurs wrt SST's -What the ultimate lapse rates end up during the final stages of phasing (Some of Monday's soundings might look alien!!) Etc....Etc..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Hurricane Sandy is here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The euro will probably not be exactly right and I think a new england hit is definitely more likely than farther south but until we actually know the systems speed we don't really know how fast the storm will move north. once it really starts moving it will probably move faster than the models but until then good luck having a real idea of how the system is going to evolve. Ruling out any solution at this point to me is kind of foolish but then maybe that's because I've been burned a time or two by talking in absolutes. Great post Wes. I would expect the Euro to start backing way off its crazy 930 solutions just like it did last night. I guess the biggest concerns are a potential rapid movement then coming to a grinding halt. Personally if we still have a <970 ish solution tomorrow afternoon as a consensus I will begin the prep for power loss issues just to be safe. Of course my job requires a much longer lead time than home. Watching intently for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah as much hype thatrisks creating, 1938 is likely the best example....Hazel is a good one too but it was more over land when it was going crazy with the extratropical baroclinic enhancement. The difference is this time we are not going to have a cat 4 getting sucked into the trough...but obviously this can still be a very high impact system without that. What weenies read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What weenies read Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The euro will probably not be exactly right and I think a new england hit is definitely more likely than farther south but until we actually know the systems speed we don't really know how fast the storm will move north. once it really starts moving it will probably move faster than the models but until then good luck having a real idea of how the system is going to evolve. Ruling out any solution at this point to me is kind of foolish but then maybe that's because I've been burned a time or two by talking in absolutes. I think even something like the 00z Canadian is quite possible with a baroclinic development. Perhaps not verbatim, but the idea of something like its solution. The block is respectable though like you said. I think the block allows for a weaker S/W to potentially capture Sandy because the S/W has nowhere to go, but dig. If that block was not there...forget it because the S/W is not nearly as intense as previous captured storms. Part of me thinks the S/W needs to be stronger than what the euro has for a capture like that, despite blocking. That is such an extreme solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 watch the 12z gfs be a big hit and the euro go ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Great post Wes. I would expect the Euro to start backing way off its crazy 930 solutions just like it did last night. I guess the biggest concerns are a potential rapid movement then coming to a grinding halt. Personally if we still have a <970 ish solution tomorrow afternoon as a consensus I will begin the prep for power loss issues just to be safe. Of course my job requires a much longer lead time than home. Watching intently for now. Steve~ What are the soil conditions in sne over the last 30 days? Your area got hit hard Early Sat, and I got a maybe .50 . Mainstem rivers appear to below normal levels for this time of year so wondering what it would take for rainfall amounts for a serious flooding concerns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I don't like what's going on in the Media right now. Everyone is latching onto their own model of choice, and hoping that solution pans out so that THEY can look like the genius. At least it comes off that way when I see these various scenarios painted out by disparate reports, and immediately recognize what model it had to have come from - haha. Egh... Anyway, I have been pounding the drum for days that regardless of a TC inject into the system, there is a whopper signal for an early season coastal alone. Imho, this is where we are right now, and nothing else: “The models are coming around to the strong suggestion for a early season coastal, and there is still some room and concern for an injection of tropical cyclone Sandy, which ups the stakes of potentials for impacts – stay tuned” Nothing more. The idea that coastal cyclogenesis has been suggested for almost 2 weeks by the teleconnector modals and monitoring, is lost to the din of hysteria over Sandy in this thing and I hate that. But that's just me. I am far more fascinated/concerned systemically in all this, in that since about mid August we have been tending to a L/W access setting up around 85W... Whenever it rolls out... any given middle and extended range ridge replacement scenario gets taken to the shed when a new L/W expression takes right back over. Here, we have our first real bona fide coastal production chance of the fetal cool season, being masked by Sandy's presence. It's the "since August" aspect here - it pretty much changes that previous 18 months of persistent circulation "styling" - perhaps the Globe has entered a new cycle everywhere. I'd love to see this, minus a Sandy, a month from now - because I'd be dreamin' of a white-azz Thanks Given friends! Winter, not tropics - yuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 watch the 12z gfs be a big hit and the euro go ots Nothing that drastic, But i bet we see another west shift on the GFS and the Euro starting to back off on its extreme solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Steve~ What are the soil conditions in sne over the last 30 days? Your area got hit hard Early Sat, and I got a maybe .50 . Mainstem rivers appear to below normal levels for this time of year so wondering what it would take for rainfall amounts for a serious flooding concerns? Here are the 3 hour Flash flood guidance maps. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 BTW, Sandy ... could this be an RI ... she dropped 10 mb in the 3 hours since 8 to 11 am, and almost abruptly we have small eye trying to appear in hi res loops. just asking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 BTW, Sandy ... could this be an RI ... she dropped 10 mb in the 3 hours since 8 to 11 am, and almost abruptly we have small eye trying to appear in hi res loops. just asking 42mb/24 hours is RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 a weenie statement but if she is I dont care if this storm happens or not you have to start warning the public today! I would rather look like a fool instead of risking anything BTW, Sandy ... could this be an RI ... she dropped 10 mb in the 3 hours since 8 to 11 am, and almost abruptly we have small eye trying to appear in hi res loops. just asking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 a weenie statement but if she is I dont care if this storm happens or not you have to start warning the public today! I would rather look like a fool instead of risking anything We have plenty of time. If things look like a direct hit tomorrow after 12z runs we can start amping up a bit. That will give Friday for preliminary preps and Saturday for serious preps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Steve~ What are the soil conditions in sne over the last 30 days? Your area got hit hard Early Sat, and I got a maybe .50 . Mainstem rivers appear to below normal levels for this time of year so wondering what it would take for rainfall amounts for a serious flooding concerns? River levels in Connecticut are running near normal to about 20% above normal for the mainstem rivers. More important is the fact that tree's and grasslands are going dormant and will absorb less potential rainfall. USGS streamflow data for Connecticut: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ct/nwis/current/?type=flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 BTW, Sandy ... could this be an RI ... she dropped 10 mb in the 3 hours since 8 to 11 am, and almost abruptly we have small eye trying to appear in hi res loops. just asking I would say that's a distinct possibility. If you look on the last few frames of the visible satellite, there is an eye forming and flare up of convection in the NE Quadrant. Satellite: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/imagery/vis-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 We have plenty of time. If things look like a direct hit tomorrow after 12z runs we can start amping up a bit. That will give Friday for preliminary preps and Saturday for serious preps. I know...there is plenty of time and given the uncertainty, no need to hype it up and have people going to Home Depot today. I'm not sure many people outside mets understand the uncertainty here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 We have plenty of time. If things look like a direct hit tomorrow after 12z runs we can start amping up a bit. That will give Friday for preliminary preps and Saturday for serious preps. Matt Noyes had a good point about this the other day. Esp. for mariners If you were going to have to get your boat out of the water for winter anyways, do it now. If there is a minor impact, no big deal, you got it done. Same with clearing drains, etc. I'm more worried about power outages (again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Blizz still thought he was getting 2 feet of snow at 216 hours though. That one was either a weak wave or way out to sea until it started amping up and strengthening closer to the coast around 96-120 hours out. And it kept getting more impressive with each run. That's the thing with the big ones... I'm not sure this storm can get any more impressive than some of the ECM and earlier GGEM runs. It can only sort of go the other way. Last year's October storm just kept getting more impressive for like the last 15 model runs. Yeah actually like 4 days away from the OCT storm we were still looking at that little C-2" event that happened the night of the 27th. Then the night before the 27th and especially the night of the 27th....this board became insane as the 00z models came out that night. There wasn't actually much lead up to that storm...we didn't take it seriously until like 72 hours out. It was pretty surreal posting obs of snow while tracking a major snowstorm on October 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Pardon me, I forget every time the clock switches... (short term memory loss ) what time does the GooFuS start up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Pardon me, I forget every time the clock switches... (short term memory loss ) what time does the GooFuS start up? Its running now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Pardon me, I forget every time the clock switches... (short term memory loss ) what time does the GooFuS start up? It's out to hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Matt Noyes had a good point about this the other day. Esp. for mariners If you were going to have to get your boat out of the water for winter anyways, do it now. If there is a minor impact, no big deal, you got it done. Same with clearing drains, etc. I'm more worried about power outages (again). TBH We might have to bite the bullet as early as this evening of not by first thing TOMORROW owing to the fact that the evolution of the system, especially as it relates to the EC scenario and as forecast by the NOGAPS and GFDL from 06z being a faster ONSET. I see us as being up against two issues how extreme the event might be and its evlotion w.r.t timing and onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Matt Noyes had a good point about this the other day. Esp. for mariners If you were going to have to get your boat out of the water for winter anyways, do it now. If there is a minor impact, no big deal, you got it done. Same with clearing drains, etc. I'm more worried about power outages (again). I agree with the marine aspect because even the most mundane solutions have gusty winds and high seas at the coast. If you aren't a fisherman and just have a pleasure craft...may as well get them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I agree with the marine aspect because even the most mundane solutions have gusty winds and high seas at the coast. If you aren't a fisherman and just have a pleasure craft...may as well get them out. LitchfieldLibations needs to take down the kiddie pool, tiki bar, and beach umbrellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 FWIW that vort over the plains is south @ 30 hours and digging some more than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah this isn't a Tuesday Wednesday thing next week. It hits Sunday nite. Very little time to get everyone frenzied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 LitchfieldLibations needs to take down the kiddie pool, tiki bar, and beach umbrellas. Tie down the lawn furniture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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