Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 what's the translation b/w Knots and MPH--85Knots is ? MPH Just type 85 knots = mph or any number into Google Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The wind in 1938 is a decent giveaway that it was probably going under some major baroclinic assist, a purely weakening TC probably wouldn't produce those types of winds, esp that far from the center...also, when you have the type of trough required to move the 1938 storm in the direction it did, it is almost impossible not to have some type of baroclinic enhancement. Eh... really - it was moving 50mph with a 945mb core - I dunno dude Interesting - It's tough to get any TC N of Cape H. without some consideration for transition(ing), must give into that - but there are always exceptions to the rule for uniquely anomalous events. Bob Hart's deep layer re-analysis offers plausibility in my mind for a rare displacement scenario. It just looks simply like 1938 was an unimpeded evacuation out of the outer Bahamas, then transported untainted like a bat our of hell straight on up. I don't see much evidence there in the surrounding mass fields that there is frontogenic forcing - in fact, it really looks as though it just decayed en mass then was absorbed into the upper OV closed gyre. hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 how do we know the hurricane was actually captured and phased in (im assuming this is when the warm seclusion occurs) before going into long island though? I assume this is all in Hart's presentation and I gotta check that out one of these days when I have time...you wouldnt happen to have any meteorological study/reanalysis data bookmarked that I could read over would you? It's initial acceleration, then slowing down and hooking left into the Great Lakes. Shows you that you have a pretty good trough/cut off. Check out the 20th century reanalysis data. It looks surprisingly good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I question putting out press releases like this when we are still a ways out. http://www.presshera...2012-10-24.html Sells newspapers and grabs the reader's eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This is pretty hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sells newspapers and grabs the reader's eye. yeah I know... funny stuff to read how the paper talks about it based off the headline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Ryan...just curious as to why you think the Euro solution is so unlikely. Do you think it's been wrong for 10 straight runs now or whatever it's been? What seems out of place to you wrt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Just saw the 00z EURO on WU. That is just about the worst possible solution for Manhattan, just piles drives the water in towards the harbor at the mouth of the Hudson. I'm all for extreme weather, but this would almost be too much, especially with next week being so important with the election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Ryan...just curious as to why you think the Euro solution is so unlikely. Do you think it's been wrong for 10 straight runs now or whatever it's been? What seems out of place to you wrt it? That track is just so so hard to do. I could see a weakening hybrid storm backing in after being absorbed... or even a direct hit from a rocket. The Euro soln to me verbatim is a soln. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah as much hype thatrisks creating, 1938 is likely the best example....Hazel is a good one too but it was more over land when it was going crazy with the extratropical baroclinic enhancement. The difference is this time we are not going to have a cat 4 getting sucked into the trough...but obviously this can still be a very high impact system without that. Even Hazel was an intense Cat 3/4 'cane at LF on SC Coast like '38 storm, too. What I find interesting is in both these cases we were dealing with an intense hurricane at a point in time. In this forecast case I don't see Sandy being close to the intensity of the two noted systems. So I am wondering if the initial strenghts of both '38 and Hazel had any bearing into how intense the XT storm became. If it did then it would stand to reason that Sandy would not be as intense. Well from what we know about ET, about the storm, and the reanalysis data it's pretty clear what the storm was doing. There's only so many ways to get that track and at that intensity. Agree totally. This said the forecast upper pattern with Sandy and the ECUS has very strong similarities to that which existed prior to and with hazel's LF and track across the EUS. Thus the chance for it getting pulled inland over the Mid-Atlantic is still on the table IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Anyone friends with DT on FB, read his morning update. I have never seen anything like it. It will absolutely give you chills up and down your spine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The interesting thing is how the JMA model is going along with the Euro but doesn't have retrograde and instead takes it like a Nor'Easter and cross the benchmark or move into RI.... depending which run you look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 That track is just so so hard to do. I could see a weakening hybrid storm backing in after being absorbed... or even a direct hit from a rocket. The Euro soln to me verbatim is a soln. It also stands to reason that just the sheer mass and momentum of "Sandy" could so easily be shunted NW'ward like the EC has. While it could happen it just seems very extreme to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's initial acceleration, then slowing down and hooking left into the Great Lakes. Shows you that you have a pretty good trough/cut off. Check out the 20th century reanalysis data. It looks surprisingly good. ahh I see what it shows going on..and that pattern makes sense gioven the track and slingshot...but was there phasing and warm seclusion/stregthening going on as it was shooting it into long island? fujiwara?...And I take it that it doesnt have to be phased in when it strengthens again or the pressure stops rising, as it is receiving assisted lift outflow from the synoptics interacting with it?...I guess I could buy it, though tip's response above also seems just as plausible to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I just remember many comments in the days leading up to the Oct snowstorm last year. How it couldn't happen for this reason or that. It was impossible. The Euro was wrong according to many, even though it had locked on for many runs in a row. The consistency of the Euro is enough IMO to think it has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It also stands to reason that just the sheer mass and momentum of "Sandy" could so easily be shunted NW'ward like the EC has. While it could happen it just seems very extreme to me. I'd say that's true but the overwhelming strength of the block makes me not ready to completely blow off the euro solution. I view it as not the most likely solution but one that still is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This is pretty hawt. meh i think the LLC/MLC are still disjointed, sitting over that area of the caribean with very low shear, i'm not impressed (not that this was forecast to rocket to a cat 2 or anything) just that it seems this storm is like most others this year, can't get really going, displaced centers, lopsided convection, eye occasionally but barely able to close off, meh (like forecast) regarding winds. I think if this thing was completely stacked , then at hr 945 (earlier in run or so) when you saw a eye clear out (barely with minimal convection to the east) that it would have rapidly taken off , in this area of the caribean but it didn't , just like most displaced storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'd say that's true but the overwhelming strength of the block makes me not ready to completely blow off the euro solution. I view it as not the most likely solution but one that still is possible. Agreed... at least something like the Euro with a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'd say that's true but the overwhelming strength of the block makes me not ready to completely blow off the euro solution. I view it as not the most likely solution but one that still is possible. The issue I have though is I think alot of the models are too far south bringing it in, the block obviously retrogrades SW but the forward speed the Euro and some others show of this thing going up the coast is probably too slow, hence it will likely escape more north than some of the models with the extreme circumstances have been showing. I think LI is the farthest south this could back in and I could be too far south with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd I'm not liking the post-tropical talk. NHC will totally and completely drop the ball on this if they wash their hands of it before the thing gets to NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I just remember many comments in the days leading up to the Oct snowstorm last year. How it couldn't happen for this reason or that. It was impossible. The Euro was wrong according to many, even though it had locked on for many runs in a row. The consistency of the Euro is enough IMO to think it has the right idea. The Oct snowstorm wasn't showing up at 216 hours out...it really didn't show up until about 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah that would not be good. So many scenarios out there, but at the very least..looks like some sort of impact from rain/wind even if not directly from Sandy. The HWRF does some funky things. While the GFDL may be a western outlier, I trust it more than the HWRF, although I don't have the hard stats to back me up. Picnic tables covered at 4K with 60kt NW cyclonic upslope flow from a storm in the Maritimes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The Oct snowstorm wasn't showing up at 216 hours out...it really didn't show up until about 5 days out. didn't it show up on a day 7 euro run then get brought back, will with other models joining suit 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The Oct snowstorm wasn't showing up at 216 hours out...it really didn't show up until about 5 days out. we're 5 days out or even less on this, it's a Sunday nite/ Monday deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The issue I have though is I think alot of the models are too far south bringing it in, the block obviously retrogrades SW but the forward speed the Euro and some others show of this thing going up the coast is probably too slow, hence it will likely escape more north than some of the models with the extreme circumstances have been showing. I think LI is the farthest south this could back in and I could be too far south with that. The euro will probably not be exactly right and I think a new england hit is definitely more likely than farther south but until we actually know the systems speed we don't really know how fast the storm will move north. once it really starts moving it will probably move faster than the models but until then good luck having a real idea of how the system is going to evolve. Ruling out any solution at this point to me is kind of foolish but then maybe that's because I've been burned a time or two by talking in absolutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The Oct snowstorm wasn't showing up at 216 hours out...it really didn't show up until about 5 days out. Blizz still thought he was getting 2 feet of snow at 216 hours though. That one was either a weak wave or way out to sea until it started amping up and strengthening closer to the coast around 96-120 hours out. And it kept getting more impressive with each run. That's the thing with the big ones... I'm not sure this storm can get any more impressive than some of the ECM and earlier GGEM runs. It can only sort of go the other way. Last year's October storm just kept getting more impressive for like the last 15 model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The Oct snowstorm wasn't showing up at 216 hours out...it really didn't show up until about 5 days out. also, the ultimate reason that nearly did not occur for coastal areas was not the reason most thought. Everyone was afraid of BL temps which with 850s of -10C over NYC in late October on a N-NE wind is not going to be a problem even though some said it would. The problem was there had been precip and clouds over NRN and WRN NY which resulted in relatively high DPs up that way and it looked grim to advect any evaporative cooling air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 HPC FTW??? THE FACT THAT THE 00Z GEFS MEAN HAS JOINED THE CLUSTER BRINGING A STG STORM SYSTEM TO SRN NEW ENGLAND LEADS TO SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. Where's that from? Digging trough to the west on 6z op GFS looks better than 00z. As Kevin said, HPC...specifically, the medium range discussion. I nearly fell out of my chair when I read that at work this morning!! Here's the URL for the medium range discussions... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Better still, check out the day 3-7 hand progs, especially D7!!! http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml Click on CONUS view. I'm sure some of you have already seen these. --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 if sandy was a category 4/5 (even 3 ) beast in the bahamas i would be more concerned about the armageddon option model runs, but what is the uppler level of realisticly expected winds if a strong tropical storm is getting phased into a mid latitude negatively tilting trough = ? there maybe something i'm missing but i'm just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Ruling out any solution at this point to me is kind of foolish but then maybe that's because I've been burned a time or two by talking in absolutes. I could not agree more. With a similar magnitude block to that of late October 1991, the wild track taken by the "Perfect Storm" (Hurricane #8), and questions about phasing, caution is key. The uncertainty concerning the storm's track is quite high. Given the blocking, some impact in the eastern U.S. and perhaps eastern Canada is probably more likely than no impact. The possibility of a significant/major impact is on the table, but much remains to be resolved before one can have much confidence in the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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