CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Looks like pressure has dropped into the 970s but there's not a big bump in FL winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 My question is, when has this happened before? with a legitimate hurricane getting sucked into a trough/warm seclusion type deal, versus just getting kicked out to see...im struggling with this one a bit...i personally like the redeveloping strong noreaster type deal though with the trough and upstream blocking...should be a doozy even without any sandy influences 1938 is the best example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 My question is, when has this happened before? with a legitimate hurricane getting sucked into a trough/warm seclusion type deal, versus just getting kicked out to see...im struggling with this one a bit...i personally like the redeveloping strong noreaster type deal though with the trough and upstream blocking...should be a doozy even without any sandy influences Sort of an indirect example but a storm retrograding and going from extra tropical to a warm seclusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 rain is going to be the least concern with this why? that makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 why? that makes no sense. He suffers from the same delusion as everyone who thought that Irene was no big deal beause the winds were not that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 My question is, when has this happened before? with a legitimate hurricane getting sucked into a trough/warm seclusion type deal, versus just getting kicked out to see...im struggling with this one a bit...i personally like the redeveloping strong noreaster type deal though with the trough and upstream blocking...should be a doozy even without any sandy influences Noel 2007 Hazel 1954 are two that come to mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Noel 2007 Hazel 1954 are two that come to mind... I don't think Noel actually really went warm seclusion though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 pressure dropping winds to follow? Looks like pressure has dropped into the 970s but there's not a big bump in FL winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 He suffers from the same delusion as everyone who thought that Irene was no big deal beause the winds were not that strong. Yeah tell the folks in the Catskills, Hudson Valley and S VT. He should also read the NOAA report study on Irene (its on the Albany NWSFO website) part of it details how much concern was placed on coastal effects and wind by media outlets and even the NHC/NWS while the dangers of severe inland flooding were NOT highlighted enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 He suffers from the same delusion as everyone who thought that Irene was no big deal beause the winds were not that strong. Irene was overrated based on the hype and media craze but it was certainly no slouch either, millions without power for several days if not a few weeks, massive flooding, widespread tree damage, and that's only from a strong tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 He suffers from the same delusion as everyone who thought that Irene was no big deal beause the winds were not that strong. yup, and up here the real damage began when the heaviest precip was winding down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I don't think Noel actually really went warm seclusion though? ehhh maybe maybe not it was close IMO. How 'bout TS Carrie in 1972 another "possible" one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Looks like pressure has dropped into the 970s but there's not a big bump in FL winds. My guess would be that the winds will follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 ehhh maybe maybe not it was close IMO. How 'bout TS Carrie in 1972 another "possible" one. While highly unlikely the worst case scenario (the Euro) is very worrisome. Hurricane going warm seclusion during ET and likely moving a bit faster than modeled. I think many of the models that show the hook left... in general... would result in a strong noreaster but not a serious hurricane. To get the serious 'cane threat you need the rocket N or NNW while undergoing ET and strengthening through baroclinic processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 1938 is the best example Yeah as much hype thatrisks creating, 1938 is likely the best example....Hazel is a good one too but it was more over land when it was going crazy with the extratropical baroclinic enhancement. The difference is this time we are not going to have a cat 4 getting sucked into the trough...but obviously this can still be a very high impact system without that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 1938 is the best example True, I briefly looked into Bob Hart's interesting study yesterday, didnt get a chance to watch the presentation though..Do we really know for sure what was going on with the 1938 pattern though? It seems like a logical explanation of how we were able to see such a low pressure/powerful cane this far north, but do we know for sure?. Also, we at one time with the 1938 storm had a cat 4/5 east of Florida..how do we know if the 944mb was a result of a strengthening ET/warm seclusion storm versus a weakening major hurricane that was slingshot so quickly it didn't have enough time to weaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah as much hype thatrisks creating, 1938 is likely the best example....Hazel is a good one too but it was more over land when it was going crazy with the extratropical baroclinic enhancement. The difference is this time we are not going to have a cat 4 getting sucked into the trough...but obviously this can still be a very high impact system without that. Yeah '38 is the clear example of that process occurring although this storm won't be anything like it! As a thought experiment it's a useful analog storm. I posted before that I thought if you were to run an ensemble model on the '38 storm 120 hours before landfall you'd probably see many members going wide right and then hooking left. At the end of the day the actual solution was a slight jog west of due north... then a rocket up toward SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 True, I briefly looked into Bob Hart's interesting study yesterday, didnt get a chance to watch the presentation though..Do we really know for sure what was going on with the 1938 pattern though? It seems like a logical explanation of how we were able to see such a low pressure/powerful cane this far north, but do we know for sure?. Also, we at one time with the 1938 storm had a cat 4/5 east of Florida..how do we know if the 944mb was a result of a strengthening ET/warm seclusion storm versus a weakening major hurricane that was slingshot so quickly it didn't have enough time to weaken? This is a good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 True, I briefly looked into Bob Hart's interesting study yesterday, didnt get a chance to watch the presentation though..Do we really know for sure what was going on with the 1938 pattern though? It seems like a logical explanation of how we were able to see such a low pressure/powerful cane this far north, but do we know for sure?. Also, we at one time with the 1938 storm had a cat 4/5 east of Florida..how do we know if the 944mb was a result of a strengthening ET/warm seclusion storm versus a weakening major hurricane that was slingshot so quickly it didn't have enough time to weaken? Well from what we know about ET, about the storm, and the reanalysis data it's pretty clear what the storm was doing. There's only so many ways to get that track and at that intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sort of an indirect example but a storm retrograding and going from extra tropical to a warm seclusion appreciate the example...the energy from grace was actually sucked up into the trough correct? It is just weird to me that the storm seems to stay in tact on the euro as it sucks up energy from the trough into sandy...I just don't know...That is a cool map by the way, you mind posting the link where i can look into storms like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The wind in 1938 is a decent giveaway that it was probably going under some major baroclinic assist, a purely weakening TC probably wouldn't produce those types of winds, esp that far from the center...also, when you have the type of trough required to move the 1938 storm in the direction it did, it is almost impossible not to have some type of baroclinic enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah as much hype thatrisks creating, 1938 is likely the best example....Hazel is a good one too but it was more over land when it was going crazy with the extratropical baroclinic enhancement. The difference is this time we are not going to have a cat 4 getting sucked into the trough...but obviously this can still be a very high impact system without that. I think agnes though it had weakened over land and then restrengthened to a tropical storm as it got sucked into the upper low. It had a huge impact and really screwed up the susky and chesapeake bay because of all the flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Part of me finds the modeling disagreement encouraging. I don't know if I want a world where everything works out all tidy and neat and determinable - there's no fun in no mystery. That said, yeah ... the 00z Euro isn't helping the GFS cause much. Why the GGEM, the first model to even see this phasing scenario ... days before any other, is suddenly not doing so over the last two cycles of its runs is a bit of a mystery. It may be because it is a bit fast in taking Sandy out of the deep south and that speed up puts it out of frequency/timing with the OV/TV amplitude - less than certain there. How about Sandy?! Nice looking CDO like feature - I would be shocked if this were not a hurricane before leaving the Caribbean. Also, there is a flank deep convective persisting feature farther east - I am wondering if this thing can't get a satellite vorticy going. It's not that uncommon for larger cyclones to do that, but Sandy's weak. Huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 TWC is starting the hype early it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 what's the translation b/w Knots and MPH--85Knots is ? MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 what's the translation b/w Knots and MPH--85Knots is ? MPH multiply by 1.15...so 85 knots is 98mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 what's the translation b/w Knots and MPH--85Knots is ? MPH 85 kt = 97.8 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I know there is a lot going on so if this question can't be answered that's fine, but here it is - What does it mean to go warm seclusion? Why does that have such a significant impact? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well from what we know about ET, about the storm, and the reanalysis data it's pretty clear what the storm was doing. There's only so many ways to get that track and at that intensity. I'm mostly playing devil's advocate right now because ive always thoguht it was unimaginable to get such a strong hurricane this far north...but still, is it completely impossible to have a weakening major hurricane moving at what was it 60 mph?, hold onto its low pressure, with that added forward speed adding to the winds on the east side and allowing for 100+ mph sustained winds in spots? how do we know the hurricane was actually captured, phased in (im assuming this is when the warm seclusion occurs) and hence strengthening again before going into long island though? I assume this is all in Hart's presentation and I gotta check that out one of these days when I have time...you wouldnt happen to have any meteorological study/reanalysis data bookmarked that I could read over would you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I question putting out press releases like this when we are still a ways out. http://www.pressherald.com/news/potentially-epic-storm-could-hit-next-week-or-not_2012-10-24.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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