ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This is the only problem I have with not letting the public know FWIW I think if there is a direct hit scenario it's fast moving and earlier than forecast. The hybrid/loop/swing nonsense will result in a nor'easter... possibly significant... but not a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think Friday is more likely than even tomorrow to really get a reasonable idea what is going to happen. The ggem idea of a noreaster developing on the front once the strong moves east is just as plausible to me as the ec,wf solution which probabably even if it were have the pressure a forecast a little too low. That's my solution. I believe that the "core" of Sandy will move east away from the coast but the complex interaction of Sandy's moisture, the east coast front and some upper level shortwaves will spark secondary cyclogenesis and lead to the development of a very powerful coastal storm. I really don't think the Euro solution of Sandy retrograding/curving west is that likely. I think instead what the Euro is picking up on is that secondary or new low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This is the only problem I have with not letting the public know Yeah... a fast/direct hit is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah... a fast/direct hit is bad. Yeah that would not be good. So many scenarios out there, but at the very least..looks like some sort of impact from rain/wind even if not directly from Sandy. The HWRF does some funky things. While the GFDL may be a western outlier, I trust it more than the HWRF, although I don't have the hard stats to back me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah that would not be good. So many scenarios out there, but at the very least..looks like some sort of impact from rain/wind even if not directly from Sandy. The HWRF does some funky things. While the GFDL may be a western outlier, I trust it more than the HWRF, although I don't have the hard stats to back me up. I bet if we were 120 hours before 1938 we'd see a ton of eastern solutions that hook left at the last minute. In the end it was a due north rocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I bet if we were 120 hours before 1938 we'd see a ton of eastern solutions that hook left at the last minute. In the end it was a due north rocket. Yeah you are probably right. A few Noreaster27 solutions that then become CtBlizz solutions lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well off to work. Should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Spot on @BigJoeBastardi: So option spread the same.. 1 in 5 total escape, 3 in 10 the wilma option ( storm out, noreaster develops) Most likely: The capture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 JB is in his glory with this one. Maximum destruction potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Coordination messages start tonight/Thursday from BOX with EMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Spot on @BigJoeBastardi: So option spread the same.. 1 in 5 total escape, 3 in 10 the wilma option ( storm out, noreaster develops) Most likely: The capture! That tells us nothing. Capture could mean storm spinning south of Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Kevin, how much movement do you have down there when you read those tweets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The cyclone phase space diagrams from FSU/Bob Hart are concerning. They are clearly showing the potential for very dangerous warm seclusion as the storm undergoes ET. Expanding wind field BUT inner core remains tight and storm remains warm core. The issue is where does the strongest baroclinic forcing strengthen the storm??? Is it hundreds of miles SE of ACK with a filling low backing in slowly or is is south of New England with a storm rocketing NNW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The cyclone phase space diagrams from FSU/Bob Hart are concerning. They are clearly showing the potential for very dangerous warm seclusion as the storm undergoes ET. Expanding wind field BUT inner core remains tight and storm remains warm core. The issue is where does the strongest baroclinic forcing strengthen the storm??? Is it hundreds of miles SE of ACK with a filling low backing in slowly or is is south of New England with a storm rocketing NNW? Option # 2 seems most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Kevin, how much movement do you have down there when you read those tweets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The cyclone phase space diagrams from FSU/Bob Hart are concerning. They are clearly showing the potential for very dangerous warm seclusion as the storm undergoes ET. Expanding wind field BUT inner core remains tight and storm remains warm core. The issue is where does the strongest baroclinic forcing strengthen the storm??? Is it hundreds of miles SE of ACK with a filling low backing in slowly or is is south of New England with a storm rocketing NNW? Yeah I mean look at the 700 mb temps. No question warm seclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah I mean look at the 700 mb temps. No question warm seclusion. Yup. It's very unusual for a storm undergoing ET and impacting us to be doing this. It's happened before (38) but it's very unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 a very good post from Meteorologist Howard Altschule on facebook. TROPICAL STORM WATCH** for South Florida!! My analysis of the overnight computer model runs leads me to a slight increase in confidence that Florida will see tropical storm conditions and that the Northeast will see a large and powerful storm system. At 8:00 a.m., Tropical Storm Sandy is close to hurricane strength. The various model tracks mostly move Sandy over the Central Bahamas, but still close enough to bring gusty winds and some rain to South Florida. Of particular note is the NAM model which is further west than the GFS. If Sandy does track slightly further west, then at least tropical storm force winds and heavy rain will be likely across most of South Florida. So, this is something Floridians will have to keep an eye on since Sandy will likely be a Hurricane at that time. Thereafter, Sandy will be moving north-northeastward parallel to the U.S. East Coast. The Hurricane should transition to an Extra-Tropical Storm and rapidly strengthen. In fact, the storm appears likely to be so anomalously strong that it may end up being a historic storm if the majority of the models actually come to fruition. The ECMWF continues to blast NJ, NYC, Long Island, CT and RI with a major storm system (with at least the equivalent of Category 1 Hurricane Strength), rough seas of at least 25-35 Feet offshore, storm surge and flooding issues. The GFS operational model continues to be offshore and I believe this will end up being wrong. Supporting the ECMWF are numerous GEFS Ensemble runs which also bring a powerful Storm system inland near the NYC Metro Area. Plus, the GFS has also trended further North and West which each run. So, it seems the GFS Op. is beginning to catch on and side with the ECMWF solution. This means trouble for the Northeast Sunday Night through Wednesday. While lots of things can happen and change, including a possible complete miss, I am still thinking there is a good chance that this will have major affects in the Northeast. But stay tuned in case things change. He lost me when he mentioned the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah I mean look at the 700 mb temps. No question warm seclusion. I am concerned that the models are too slow on the onset of this storm...I'd think acceleration commences by late Saturday Sunday followed by deceleration as it becomes involved with the C/O low over the NEUS..while it will likely linger into Monday night/Tuesday..I think the worst of the wind and rain potential will be during Sunday night & Monday for the NEUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 the thing that concerns me is the amount of rainfall that would come with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah you are probably right. A few Noreaster27 solutions that then become CtBlizz solutions lol. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 the thing that concerns me is the amount of rainfall that would come with this Leaf clogged drains much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I am concerned that the models are too slow on the onset of this storm...I'd think acceleration commences by late Saturday Sunday followed by deceleration as it becomes involved with the C/O low over the NEUS..while it will likely linger into Monday night/Tuesday..I think the worst of the wind and rain potential will be during Sunday night & Monday for the NEUS I think it's possible. I think any direct impact will be faster than the model consensus right now. The more likely... non-direct impact scenario... will be alower and more circuitous to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 And that's a huge shift on the GFDL from 00z to 06z. Yestrday's 12z GFDL was west thencame the 00z run east and a bit slower... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yestrday's 12z GFDL was west thencame the 00z run east and a bit slower... Yes it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Kevin, how much movement do you have down there when you read those tweets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 the thing that concerns me is the amount of rainfall that would come with this rain is going to be the least concern with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This set up is so cool. Been really busy with my MET degree, but this is beginning to emerge at the forefront of our class discussions, especially my Analysis and Forecasting class. The EURO's continuity is downright amazing, and the ensemble support is crazy for 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 My question is, when has this happened before? with a legitimate hurricane getting sucked into a trough/warm seclusion type deal, versus just getting kicked out to see...im struggling with this one a bit...i personally like the redeveloping strong noreaster type deal though with the trough and upstream blocking...should be a doozy even without any sandy influences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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