Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 As is another CT Blizz time out? For no reason again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not a big surprise but Bob Hart's cyclone phase space for the 6z GFS has a dangerous hybrid low developing. One of the rare ET cases that strengthens as the storm transitions to warm seclusion. Definitely modeled to be warm core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Pressure down to 981. Probably a cane now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The last sentence says it all and I think it would be good for people either way THERE IS NO GOOD SOLN /ENSEMBLE OR OPERATIONAL/ TO FOLLOW AT THIS TIME...SO STUCK CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS WITH EITHER A COMPLETE MISS /HIGH SEAS ON THE OPEN WATERS/...A CLOSE PASS /STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS POSSIBLY LEADING TO COASTAL FLOODING AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES/...OR A DIRECT HIT /STRONG WINDS WITH PARTIALLY FOLIATED TREES POSSIBLY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES...HIGH SEAS COMBINED WITH WINDS RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE...AND FINALLY HEAVY RAINS RESULTING IN INTERIOR FLOODING/. THERE WILL BE MANY MORE MODEL RUNS TO EXAMINE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THAT SHOULD GIVE US MORE CONFIDENCE TO THIS SYSTEM/S ULTIMATE TRACK. THE BEST ADVICE IS TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR EVERY SCENARIO...BEST OR WORST CASE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm not sure it's any less likely than it was 24 hours ago? I do think the op GFS kind of track is pretty unlikely. I don't think an overall OTS solution is in the cards, But a direct hit from sandy seems to be unlikely, I would favor more of a hybrid low with some of sandys moisture off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 NWS in Taunton is calling this a "nor'easter on steroids". We aired a package from WHDH this morning and they talked to Bob Thompson yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I don't think an overall OTS solution is in the cards, But a direct hit from sandy seems to be unlikely, I would favor more of a hybrid low with some of sandys moisture off the coast I don't think anything is off the table at this point, things should be more clear by the 0Z Thursday runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think you have to consider this not to be a run of the mill nor'easter even if it develops off the inverted trough because of the pattern we are in. NWS in Taunton is calling this a "nor'easter on steroids". We aired a package from WHDH this morning and they talked to Bob Thompson yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 D6 Prelim D7 brings it over CT/MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What will also make this forecast unusually complex is the interaction that Tony and the N Atlantic low will have. There will likely be some fujiwhara kind of stuff going on there (look at the GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 NWS in Taunton is calling this a "nor'easter on steroids". We aired a package from WHDH this morning and they talked to Bob Thompson yesterday. oh great, an "A-Rod Noreaster" that should be TWC first name for their ridiculous name listing for winter storms lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think you have to consider this not to be a run of the mill nor'easter even if it develops off the inverted trough because of the pattern we are in. Maybe... although the ultimate impact on land may not be any different from a regular nor'easter. Too early to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 To Bob and H2O, a nor'easter can be almost as dangerous with a high to the north and rapidly deepening system. Combo of retro movement and high to the north would bring very strong gradient and storm surge into coastline. Nor'easter like deal a very real possibility like Ryan said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 VDM from Recon Close but no cigar. Very large circular 48nmi "eye" under the CDO 000 URNT12 KNHC 241220 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 24/11:48:00Z B. 16 deg 34 min N 076 deg 56 min W C. 700 mb 2940 m D. 60 kt E. 322 deg 17 nm F. 060 deg 54 kt G. 322 deg 22 nm H. 981 mb I. 9 C / 3042 m J. 14 C / 3049 m K. 5 C / NA L. open wnw M. C48 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF308 0418A SANDY OB 09 MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 69 KT SE QUAD 11:59:30Z RAGGED EYEWALL ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 a very good post from Meteorologist Howard Altschule on facebook. TROPICAL STORM WATCH** for South Florida!! My analysis of the overnight computer model runs leads me to a slight increase in confidence that Florida will see tropical storm conditions and that the Northeast will see a large and powerful storm system. At 8:00 a.m., Tropical Storm Sandy is close to hurricane strength. The various model tracks mostly move Sandy over the Central Bahamas, but still close enough to bring gusty winds and some rain to South Florida. Of particular note is the NAM model which is further west than the GFS. If Sandy does track slightly further west, then at least tropical storm force winds and heavy rain will be likely across most of South Florida. So, this is something Floridians will have to keep an eye on since Sandy will likely be a Hurricane at that time. Thereafter, Sandy will be moving north-northeastward parallel to the U.S. East Coast. The Hurricane should transition to an Extra-Tropical Storm and rapidly strengthen. In fact, the storm appears likely to be so anomalously strong that it may end up being a historic storm if the majority of the models actually come to fruition. The ECMWF continues to blast NJ, NYC, Long Island, CT and RI with a major storm system (with at least the equivalent of Category 1 Hurricane Strength), rough seas of at least 25-35 Feet offshore, storm surge and flooding issues. The GFS operational model continues to be offshore and I believe this will end up being wrong. Supporting the ECMWF are numerous GEFS Ensemble runs which also bring a powerful Storm system inland near the NYC Metro Area. Plus, the GFS has also trended further North and West which each run. So, it seems the GFS Op. is beginning to catch on and side with the ECMWF solution. This means trouble for the Northeast Sunday Night through Wednesday. While lots of things can happen and change, including a possible complete miss, I am still thinking there is a good chance that this will have major affects in the Northeast. But stay tuned in case things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 If it still has tropical characteristics, strong wins SW. But like Phil said, all depends on the core of the storm and any baroclinic enhancement. I think the threat is heightened for a strong storm, about all you can say at this point. Strong storm doesn't mean '38 redux either. If the 12z runs come and hit it harder...than more confidence of siggy impact, but really it will take until later tomorrow or Friday morning to truly sample all the players. People need to remember that. I think Friday is more likely than even tomorrow to really get a reasonable idea what is going to happen. The ggem idea of a noreaster developing on the front once the strong moves east is just as plausible to me as the ec,wf solution which probabably even if it were have the pressure a forecast a little too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 VDM from Recon Close but no cigar. Very large circular 48nmi "eye" under the CDO 000 URNT12 KNHC 241220 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 24/11:48:00Z B. 16 deg 34 min N 076 deg 56 min W C. 700 mb 2940 m D. 60 kt E. 322 deg 17 nm F. 060 deg 54 kt G. 322 deg 22 nm H. 981 mb I. 9 C / 3042 m J. 14 C / 3049 m K. 5 C / NA L. open wnw M. C48 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF308 0418A SANDY OB 09 MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 69 KT SE QUAD 11:59:30Z RAGGED EYEWALL ; Temp data is a meh but decent pressure drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 6z gfdl is a beast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 6z GFDL is very fast... like a handful of GEFS members... with an early Monday landfall in Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 6z GFDL is very fast... like a handful of GEFS members... with an early Monday landfall in Delmarva. lol and 6z HWRF is south of Bermuda. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 a very good post from Meteorologist Howard Altschule on facebook. While lots of things can happen and change, including a possible complete miss, I am still thinking there is a good chance that this will have major affects in the Northeast. But stay tuned in case things change. Tell him the noun is effect not affect. I think Friday is more likely than even tomorrow to really get a reasonable idea what is going to happen. The ggem idea of a noreaster developing on the front once the strong moves east is just as plausible to me as the ec,wf solution which probabably even if it were have the pressure a forecast a little too low. Wes, I remember a while back when you posted about the elusive latent heat in NWP. What's your take on that adding to the various modeled solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think Friday is more likely than even tomorrow to really get a reasonable idea what is going to happen. The ggem idea of a noreaster developing on the front once the strong moves east is just as plausible to me as the ec,wf solution which probabably even if it were have the pressure a forecast a little too low. Yeah Friday is more ideal. Agree with your last sentence too, lots of ideas still plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The weenie wishing the calendar was February Big storm early again. What does that portend for this winter? Coastal errosion no doubt will be destructive. The fetch on this (whatever form) is immense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 And that's a huge shift on the GFDL from 00z to 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 And that's a huge shift on the GFDL from 00z to 06z. Only 800 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think the faster solutions might verify as someone pointed out that Bob, Gloria, 1938 all rocketed northward. - OT: but the NAM has 5-10 inches of rain for parts of SE Florida-wow-effects far from the main storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 i forget how to add photos here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 And that's a huge shift on the GFDL from 00z to 06z. Interesting considering the GFDL uses the GFS for boundary conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think the faster solutions might verify as someone pointed out that Bob, Gloria, 1938 all rocketed northward. - OT: but the NAM has 5-10 inches of rain for parts of SE Florida-wow-effects far from the main storm.... FWIW I think if there is a direct hit scenario it's fast moving and earlier than forecast. The hybrid/loop/swing nonsense will result in a nor'easter... possibly significant... but not a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Interesting considering the GFDL uses the GFS for boundary conditions. That will start shifting some of the NHC consensus tracks they hug west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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