Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 10:29 AM, moneypitmike said: Be that as it may--we need to recognize that every model is not on board--gem, e.g., now missing to the east. Still so much time to play out here as it's only Wednesday. While it's still the GEM, it does in fact develop a secondary low that then bombs out near the 40/70 benchmark while Sandy heads OTS. Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 To me the GFS looks awfully confused on what to do. What a difference with the trough over the CONUS however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 10:35 AM, SBUWX23 said: To me the GFS looks awfully confused on what to do. What a difference with the trough over the CONUS however. Yeah I don't really buy the GFS. It's all over the place. Obviously a NBD solution is still possible... but I don't think this storm will do what the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 10:35 AM, Superstorm93 said: While it's still the GEM, it does in fact develop a secondary low that then bombs out near the 40/70 benchmark while Sandy heads OTS. Sent from Tapatalk Good point--thanks for mentioning that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 LOL, euro so far south and west, probably would not be all that bad here. But, looks like we have ourselves a little situation here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 10:53 AM, CoastalWx said: LOL, euro so far south and west, probably would not be all that bad here. But, looks like we have ourselves a little situation here. Yeah the biggest issue probably would be coastal flooding with several high tide cycles lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro op is still on the wrn envelope of solutions I think when looking at the ensembles, but even the 06z GFS looks like it's caving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 10:55 AM, CT Rain said: Yeah the biggest issue probably would be coastal flooding with several high tide cycles lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Although, there is a very strong 850 wind max overhead and winds stay strong as it weakens near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 10:58 AM, CoastalWx said: Euro op is still on the wrn envelope of solutions I think when looking at the ensembles, but even the 06z GFS looks like it's caving. Yeah I don't think the Euro ens consensus is any more west than it was 12z yesterday...in fact maybe even a touch east. 6z GFS is basically there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Lanza with cane winds hundreds of miles inland. Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Who is Lanza? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 11:05 AM, snowman21 said: Who is Lanza? well known energy met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 11:08 AM, CT Blizz said: well known energy met well know to who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 11:02 AM, CT Blizz said: Lanza with cane winds hundreds of miles inland. Love it I love how you search for tweets like that. It's like you have programmed a search button for words like "hurricane" "destruction" and "winds". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 11:14 AM, CoastalWx said: I love how you search for tweets like that. It's like you have programmed a search button for words like "hurricane" "destruction" and "winds". FB fruends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 11:08 AM, CT Blizz said: well known energy met Really? Google says the most famous Lanza is some guy that sells insurance in Florida LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 @BigJoeBastardi: Even Brazilian model is joining ECMWF with Sandy hit on northeast coast. ECMWF as bad as it gets if correct 144 http://t.co/I5qyrTDd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 11:00 AM, CoastalWx said: Although, there is a very strong 850 wind max overhead and winds stay strong as it weakens near NYC. yeah the wind field is very impressive. would be a prolonged period of strong onshore winds. but of course without knowing how exactly the core structure of the storm is behaving at the point its tough to know what it would be like over the entire region with respect to winds etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Anyone watch the beginning of Today? Page 1 was Roker going through watches and warnings then a comparison of the Euro and GFS SLP progs. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 11:17 AM, CT Rain said: Anyone watch the beginning of Today? Page 1 was Roker going through watches and warnings then a comparison of the Euro and GFS SLP progs. Awesome. Yeah expect lots of "tropical force" winds whatever those are. I always thought if he would slow down just a little bit he would actually do a pretty good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 06z Ensmbles slide it west just south of MVY into LI, but again...some models develop a separate baroclinic low which is still possible..although could be very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm guessing if this happens, the public will probably call this a hurricane or hurricane Sandy since that's what they are most familiar with (Hurricanes in general) although some may call it a nor'easter as well since that's another term they know (no matter the inaccuracy). The whole hybrid/subtropical storm will probably not gel well even though it's the correct/scientific option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 11:17 AM, CT Rain said: Anyone watch the beginning of Today? Page 1 was Roker going through watches and warnings then a comparison of the Euro and GFS SLP progs. Awesome. Ha! I wish I could do that... It'd be easier to explain/show. Management won't let me, though... Not like it matters THAT much for me in the Deep South. I'm watching this from afar, but my goodness the set-up is there for something special! It'll either phase (Euro) or head out to sea (GFS) and create a nice nor'easter. I'd side more with the Euro, though, as it's run-to-run consistency is remarkable and the 6Z GFS looks off-kilter with Sandy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GEFS have a number of direct hits still http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/ensprsloopmref.html Several models with the follow up nor'easter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 So basically... at 120 hours the GEFS is absolutely all over the map... literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 11:17 AM, CT Rain said: Anyone watch the beginning of Today? Page 1 was Roker going through watches and warnings then a comparison of the Euro and GFS SLP progs. Awesome. I think we're finally seeing the media realize just how bad the GFS is, after so many failed forecasts folks realize they need to look elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 11:34 AM, CT Blizz said: I think we're finally seeing the media realize just how bad the GFS is, after so many failed forecasts folks realize they need to look elsewhere if it hadn't schooled the euro on several occasions in the last few months along the eastern seaboard it wouldn't be as annoying to see what it's doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Henry M from Accuweather is siding with the GFS now and sending Sandy OTS,a new low takes over with impacts to the coast.??? If the GFS has been so unreliable and the Euro so consistent..why the GFS Henry..geez...I'm confused now..But hey I'm just another weather weenie,junkie.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 11:26 AM, CT Rain said: GEFS have a number of direct hits still http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html Several models with the follow up nor'easter too. Appears that 3/4ths of the members support a US hit of "Sandy", with the non-hits developing a noreaster. The OP seems to be the only member that takes it OTS with a "nothing to see here" attitude. Talk about outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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