free_man Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Intensifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F168.html I'll take P06 for the win Johnny Omminous members in that grouping. Oh-oh, I'm starting to believe. Always wanted a generator, now me thinks-going to need. Might even stay up for the EURO run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Holy curved band Dvorak, batman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Glad I don't have to make a public forecast (or any forecast) on this one. What do you say if you're a public forecaster? Hey folks - could be an historical event for the end of October again, or we could have a few showers and a 20 mph gust. More at 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 So....yeah This was the 12z CMC ensembles mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Glad I don't have to make a public forecast (or any forecast) on this one. What do you say if you're a public forecaster? Hey folks - could be an historical event for the end of October again, or we could have a few showers and a 20 mph gust. More at 11. Probably just say the period looks quite unsettled as we may see some impacts from what is now Tropical Storm Sandy but as of now it's still a little too far out to go into much more detail. If we're still seeing some serious solutions by like Thursday afternoon then start to mention the potential for a big hit but I IMO it's too early to be doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 impressive im staying up for the 0z runs tonight So....yeah This was the 12z CMC ensembles mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I hope someone is archiving the imagery. This is going to something historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 So....yeah This was the 12z CMC ensembles mean Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Onboard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 im sure if the euro continues alot will start talking as early as tomorrow Probably just say the period looks quite unsettled as we may see some impacts from what is now Tropical Storm Sandy but as of now it's still a little too far out to go into much more detail. If we're still seeing some serious solutions by like Thursday afternoon then start to mention the potential for a big hit but I IMO it's too early to be doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I hope someone is archiving the imagery. This is going to something historic. Unfortunately, I always do when something like this pops up on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 im sure if the euro continues alot will start talking as early as tomorrow I still think that would be premature. If we get inside the 96-HR window then perhaps start thinking this could really happen, however, we're still in the range where the Euro loves to go phase happy with Tropical systems and troughs setting up along the east coast. While the Euro certainly is a superior model as we all know it does have it's flaws and this is one of them. It is intriguing though that the UKIE and CMC though have some pretty decent agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah tomorrow is still quite early. It really wouldnt be until 12z runs Thursday that we can start ringing the alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah tomorrow is still quite early. It really wouldnt be until 12z runs Thursday that we can start ringing the alarm. Don't you have to wake up in 4 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I hope Jamaica is sufficiently aware, not just warned. This seems destined to strike the island on the + curve, which is usually how TCs express their worst on land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 So....yeah This was the 12z CMC ensembles mean I'm a weather noob and even I know that is nothing to shake a stick at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Some Sandy news... Recon's latest pass has the pressure down to 989 with the eye shrinking a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Some Sandy news... Recon's latest pass has the pressure down to 989 with the eye shrinking a bit. That IR looks pretty good as well...lots of activity flaring up. Does it show some kind of pseudo-eye trying to form? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Unfortunately, I always do when something like this pops up on the models. Cool so you'll store some of this stuff? Should be awesome to put a multi day loop together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah tomorrow is still quite early. It really wouldnt be until 12z runs Thursday that we can start ringing the alarm. Which is my point exactly. It's gotta be killing a lot of broadcast mets to downplay this knowing that it could go out to sea, or it could be a major storm, and then to try to explain why we don't know exactly what will happen just fuels the discussion of weathermen get paid to be wrong. Good luck with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I have a favor to ask. This directed to the Pro's. Can someone please take a stab at explaining the synoptic set-up? i.e Blocking, baroclinic enhancement, phasing and how deep can this possible go? I could try but I would fail miserably. I ask to keep the novice in check, educate and squelch the onslought of bickering and chest-pumping that seems to be the norm these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well anyone hoping for those extreme solutions the NAM doesn't look too bad at all. Digging that trough pretty deep at 81 HR with blocking low quick strong as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I have a favor to asked. This directed to the Pro's. Can someone please take a stab at explaining the synoptic set-up? i.e Blocking, baroclinic enhancement, phasing and how deep can this possible go? I could try but I would fail miserably. I ask to keep the novice in check, educate and squelch the onslought of bickering and chest-pumping that seems to be the norm these days. Not to be a d-head but we've been doing this all day - personally I'm gassed. Between work, sneaking in updates, and giving up energy to software concerns while popping between model runs and indices, at this point to do so is a lengthy journey. This system is fraught with complexity and exploring the tedium all over again ...and again, is like the big hill upon the Boston Marathon. Blocking - the 2nd highest confidence aspect in this. Makes the GFS out to sea a bit less likely. Phasing - seems inevitable, but where and timing is impossible to be certain. Depth - timing again...if it phases in as the trough is turning negative, that would feed back dynamically toward the stronger of possible systems. Seems some of the dependable models are doing just that - which why there is some early notification press dockets going out. Bickering - the 1st highest confident aspect in this. No matter what happens, even the deepest most powerful phenomenon ever observed, bickering will be an extraordinary gale. If a weak none phase laugher, bickering gale will be equal. There's probably a plethora of complex physical equations to speak to that enforces all of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well anyone hoping for those extreme solutions the NAM doesn't look too bad at all. Digging that trough pretty deep at 81 HR with blocking low quick strong as well. Trough is digging into S IL and going E at 84... too bad its la la land NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northeastah Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Glad I don't have to make a public forecast (or any forecast) on this one. What do you say if you're a public forecaster? Hey folks - could be an historical event for the end of October again, or we could have a few showers and a 20 mph gust. More at 11. I like that forecast!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Trough is digging into S IL and going E at 84... too bad its la la land NAM While it's much faster than the 12z Euro with regards to when that trough sharply amplifies the 0z NAM is actually quite similar in this regard to the Euro. What's that saying about the Euro/NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 While it's much faster than the 12z Euro with regards to when that trough sharply amplifies the 0z NAM is actually quite similar in this regard to the Euro. What's that saying about the Euro/NAM... I heard it went "If the 84 hr NAM shows something, ignore it because it's the 84 hr NAM" It does look fairly similar to the Euro's evolution through that frame, though. Can't take that away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I heard it went "If the 84 hr NAM shows something, ignore it because it's the 84 hr NAM" It does look fairly similar to the Euro's evolution through that frame, though. Can't take that away. I bet that saying came to life b/c when the NAM would show something people didn't want to see in that range they figured just ignore it b/c it's so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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