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Hurricane Sandy/Potential EC Event Discussion Part II


free_man

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Glad I don't have to make a public forecast (or any forecast) on this one. What do you say if you're a public forecaster? Hey folks - could be an historical event for the end of October again, or we could have a few showers and a 20 mph gust. More at 11.

Probably just say the period looks quite unsettled as we may see some impacts from what is now Tropical Storm Sandy but as of now it's still a little too far out to go into much more detail. If we're still seeing some serious solutions by like Thursday afternoon then start to mention the potential for a big hit but I IMO it's too early to be doing that.

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im sure if the euro continues alot will start talking as early as tomorrow

Probably just say the period looks quite unsettled as we may see some impacts from what is now Tropical Storm Sandy but as of now it's still a little too far out to go into much more detail. If we're still seeing some serious solutions by like Thursday afternoon then start to mention the potential for a big hit but I IMO it's too early to be doing that.

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im sure if the euro continues alot will start talking as early as tomorrow

I still think that would be premature. If we get inside the 96-HR window then perhaps start thinking this could really happen, however, we're still in the range where the Euro loves to go phase happy with Tropical systems and troughs setting up along the east coast. While the Euro certainly is a superior model as we all know it does have it's flaws and this is one of them.

It is intriguing though that the UKIE and CMC though have some pretty decent agreement.

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Yeah tomorrow is still quite early. It really wouldnt be until 12z runs Thursday that we can start ringing the alarm.

Which is my point exactly. It's gotta be killing a lot of broadcast mets to downplay this knowing that it could go out to sea, or it could be a major storm, and then to try to explain why we don't know exactly what will happen just fuels the discussion of weathermen get paid to be wrong. Good luck with this one.

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I have a favor to ask.

This directed to the Pro's.

Can someone please take a stab at explaining the synoptic set-up? i.e Blocking, baroclinic enhancement, phasing and how deep can this possible go?

I could try but I would fail miserably.

I ask to keep the novice in check, educate and squelch the onslought of bickering and chest-pumping that seems to be the norm these days.

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I have a favor to asked.

This directed to the Pro's.

Can someone please take a stab at explaining the synoptic set-up? i.e Blocking, baroclinic enhancement, phasing and how deep can this possible go?

I could try but I would fail miserably.

I ask to keep the novice in check, educate and squelch the onslought of bickering and chest-pumping that seems to be the norm these days.

Not to be a d-head but we've been doing this all day - personally I'm gassed. Between work, sneaking in updates, and giving up energy to software concerns while popping between model runs and indices, at this point to do so is a lengthy journey. This system is fraught with complexity and exploring the tedium all over again ...and again, is like the big hill upon the Boston Marathon.

Blocking - the 2nd highest confidence aspect in this. Makes the GFS out to sea a bit less likely.

Phasing - seems inevitable, but where and timing is impossible to be certain.

Depth - timing again...if it phases in as the trough is turning negative, that would feed back dynamically toward the stronger of possible systems. Seems some of the dependable models are doing just that - which why there is some early notification press dockets going out.

Bickering - the 1st highest confident aspect in this. No matter what happens, even the deepest most powerful phenomenon ever observed, bickering will be an extraordinary gale. If a weak none phase laugher, bickering gale will be equal.

There's probably a plethora of complex physical equations to speak to that enforces all of these.

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Glad I don't have to make a public forecast (or any forecast) on this one. What do you say if you're a public forecaster? Hey folks - could be an historical event for the end of October again, or we could have a few showers and a 20 mph gust. More at 11.

I like that forecast!!!

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While it's much faster than the 12z Euro with regards to when that trough sharply amplifies the 0z NAM is actually quite similar in this regard to the Euro. What's that saying about the Euro/NAM...

I heard it went "If the 84 hr NAM shows something, ignore it because it's the 84 hr NAM"

It does look fairly similar to the Euro's evolution through that frame, though. Can't take that away.

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I heard it went "If the 84 hr NAM shows something, ignore it because it's the 84 hr NAM"

It does look fairly similar to the Euro's evolution through that frame, though. Can't take that away.

:lol:

I bet that saying came to life b/c when the NAM would show something people didn't want to see in that range they figured just ignore it b/c it's so far out.

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