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Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

My first impressions are that this will be a monster storm. I also think uncertainty is pretty high due to the fact we are dealing with a tropical system. The exact track of sandy is going to decide everything and that track is far from set within any reasonable cone it seems. I'm very skeptical about who gets what but if sandys hits the us someone is going to get pounded.

I know they are but that's really not what I am talking about. there's pretty much agreement that an extreme event will be occurring that will have some effects on central NC. Here is my current forecast.


  • Sunday

    A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. Chance of precipitation is 20%.


  • Sunday Night

    Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.


  • Monday

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 53.


  • Monday Night

    Mostly clear, with a low around 34.


  • Tuesday

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.


  • Tuesday Night

    Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.


  • Wednesday

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 54.


  • Wednesday Night

    Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.


  • Thursday

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 56.

There is a big difference between mostly clear and over reacting. There is no hint of a possibility of anything occurring in that forecast.

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gritsnc

gritsnc

Posted
Posted

Durn guess my eyes need to be checked out...or I'm just super rusty from looking at SV maps. If this keeps up might be a trip to Winston Salem will be in order on Sunday evening.

I live right outside of Winston-Salem (Kernersville) and I'm really contemplating posting lots of these graphics on Facebook. Once they start getting shared, widespread panic will break out. It always does. I'm recovering from surgery and really bored. This could be great entertainment for me. ;)

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

I know they are but that's really not what I am talking about. there's pretty much agreement that an extreme event will be occurring that will have some effects on central NC. Here is my current forecast.


  • Sunday

    A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. Chance of precipitation is 20%.


There is a big difference between mostly clear and over reacting. There is no hint of a possibility of anything occurring in that forecast.

Hurricanes making landfall don't typically bring rain do they? :arrowhead: I would talk about how sad it is they always hug the most conservative model but last year I was always left stupidly holding the bag while they were right :wacko2:

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tarheelwx

tarheelwx

Posted
Posted

I know they are but that's really not what I am talking about. there's pretty much agreement that an extreme event will be occurring that will have some effects on central NC. Here is my current forecast.


  • Sunday

    A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. Chance of precipitation is 20%.


  • Sunday Night

    Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.


  • Monday

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 53.


  • Monday Night

    Mostly clear, with a low around 34.


  • Tuesday

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.


  • Tuesday Night

    Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.


  • Wednesday

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 54.


  • Wednesday Night

    Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.


  • Thursday

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 56.

There is a big difference between mostly clear and over reacting. There is no hint of a possibility of anything occurring in that forecast.

Couldn't agree more. I think it justifies the private services

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

I would put more chips on the Euro Ensemble than any other solution at this time range. Latest version due within the hour I think.

If the Euro ENS comes up with the same solution or it goes slightly more SW...do we take this seriously in NC...of course my interest is already piqued.

On a lighter note there is a radio show tonight...so we should see the trend go NE and OTS on the 00z Euro.

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

Euro Ensemble has it hitting southern Jersey, but continues the theme of a deep anomaly trough. Don't have detail maps, but from Alan's site, looks like there would be some snow in the mountains with NW flow and cold temps at 850mb.

this sounds more realistic! although I would like at least a flurry!!!
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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

18z GFS seeing the way Euro does. Smashes NJ, but the overriding fact is they both see the block just to strong to really get this thing past midatlantic, hence the sharp left turns. Copied the following quote from New England thread, well stated IMO.

Somewhere in central Jersey @114 hrs. But it concedes to the 12z euros Idea of the block coming down faster and a more amped troff.

Bottom line is the euro/ euro ensembles blend should be giving alot of weight since they have sniffed and pegged this solution out for a long time now. I'd say the 12z Euro and 18z GFS are the furtherest south V/s North landfall points. It will be a matter of them coming into a consensus between those 2 points over the next 100 hours. The hard left turn is whats just even more remarkable to see.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
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Posted

Just going to throw this out there: Guests, you may not be able to view images, take sec and register to take full advantage of the percs that go along with becoming a member. Radio show tonight, may call in, don't know, crazy epic jet, pivots back and flexes, anyone want to see a 200mb UL trough going neg tilt and closing off over the eastern half of the United States loop the GFS, pick a run, really don't matter at this point. Reading the tropical thread, and looking at sat-vort messages, transition already underway. Just to put this into perspective, absent Sandy this would have been a sig EC storm, throw her in, ABC just said Superstorm lol, prime-time folks, books and movies will be made, book it! Thats a WXNC guarantee! Sat-Weds, impacts cometh... :stun:

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Isopycnic

Isopycnic

Posted
Posted

Just going to throw this out there: Guests, you may not be able to view images, take sec and register to take full advantage of the percs that go along with becoming a member. Radio show tonight, may call in, don't know, crazy epic jet, pivots back and flexes, anyone want to see a 200mb UL trough going neg tilt and closing off over the eastern half of the United States loop the GFS, pick a run, really don't matter at this point. Reading the tropical thread, and looking at sat-vort messages, transition already underway. Just to put this into perspective, absent Sandy this would have been a sig EC storm, throw her in, ABC just said Superstorm lol, prime-time folks, books and movies will be made, book it! Thats a WXNC guarantee! Sat-Weds, impacts cometh... :stun:

Indeed... register now or Brick Tamland will steal your snow.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

Are there any previous examples of a storm like this to gauge potential impacts? As others have stated it seems like the potential is high for a superstorm.

I remember one back during the last great warming just after the end of the last ice age. Of course I was just a little fella and really can't remember the details. Back then long range and nowcast meant the same thing.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Are there any previous examples of a storm like this to gauge potential impacts? As others have stated it seems like the potential is high for a superstorm.

Several similar ones the Perfect Storm in 1991 is closest it was basically this type of setup but it occurred well east of the Northeastern US coast but did get pushed back west far enough to batter coastal NE.

So this is basically that storm only 800 miles further west....Hurricane grace was the cane that merged into that storm.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

If you're listening to the radio show and hope to hear about anything south of VA you're going to have a bad time.

lol That's why I'm not even bothering with it. Remember, if it doesn't happen from the mid-atlantic north, it doesn't happen, can't happen, shouldn't happen and never will happen.

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