Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

[Brick Tamland]

It's just crazy thinking we could see that much snow from this. Even snow at all this time of year would be crazy.

[Isopycnic]

Euro drops 12" in NW NC!!!!!!! And I'm not talking about rain

Euro pivots the low across central NC with 3-6" hour rates for many many hours on Monday afternoon - tuesday monring

[burgertime]

Euro pivots the low across central NC with 3-6" hour rates for many many hours on Monday afternoon - tuesday monring

Am I missing something? Looking at the qpf verbatim it didn't look like that much. Would the low be cranking out that much moisture? Or is it due to the synoptic setup that the snow would be that heavy?

[FLO]

Any chance this dips down to the midlands of SC?

[deltadog03]

BTW, raw output from the euro shows over 3.6" QPF for bleckly, WV.....how about all snow! Snowshoe would be even more. EURO dumps a nice amount of snow over NC and specially the mtns.

[burgertime]

BTW, raw output from the euro shows over 3.6" QPF for bleckly, WV.....how about all snow! Snowshoe would be even more. EURO dumps a nice amount of snow over NC and specially the mtns.

Durn guess my eyes need to be checked out...or I'm just super rusty from looking at SV maps. If this keeps up might be a trip to Winston Salem will be in order on Sunday evening.

[kvegas-wx]

Would it be inappropriate to remind everyone that I was the ONLY one to prognosticate a Halloween widespread snow event over in the "first snowfall" thread?

This is not the way I think most of us would have predicted our first snowfall, but hey, who's complaining?!

[Isopycnic]

Am I missing something? Looking at the qpf verbatim it didn't look like that much. Would the low be cranking out that much moisture? Or is it due to the synoptic setup that the snow would be that heavy?

Looks like a deformation band forms just south of the NC border and just hangs around with heavy snow rates.

[eyewall]

I would take all of this with a real grain of salt. I am not sure the low will come ashore that far south. Of course everything about this goes against climo.

[buckeyefan1]

Any chance this dips down to the midlands of SC?

Nope unless you are riding the DGEX ...and posts like these need to be in the banter thread while the board is in storm mode

Edit: to say I wasn't just pulling your post out, I had Bricks quote too, but for some reason it didn't take

[deltadog03]

I would take all of this with a real grain of salt. I am not sure the low will come ashore that far south. Of course everything about this goes against climo.

AGREED! I do like the EURO solution, but not sure its that far south. I still think the GFS will correct toward the euro solution tho. Snow in NC, not sure yet.....but hell, who knows...haha

[burgertime]

Looks like a deformation band forms just south of the NC border and just hangs around with heavy snow rates.

Ah yes that makes sense now. I only looked at the SFC maps.

[packbacker]

It's just crazy thinking we could see that much snow from this. Even snow at all this time of year would be crazy.

Well we are going to have to get extremely lucky to have a perfect track for snow for us. Not sure it will be that far south, if it is we have a shot of seeing some flakes in October. Whoever is SW of the track has a great chance.

[Met1985]

AGREED! I do like the EURO solution, but not sure its that far south. I still think the GFS will correct toward the euro solution tho. Snow in NC, not sure yet.....but hell, who knows...haha

Ya I am not sure about snow outside the mountains but it has happened before on Halloween. I think this COULD be a significant event for the mountains but still depending on the track it could really increase the totals of decrease a lot. The further south the storm moves in along the coast the more cold air gets drained down and the more moisture we will see but still a long way off to nailing the exact track.

[WilkesboroDude]

EURO is way south-west of model guidance inland. Too tough to bite for me at this time. DGEX is crap in the winter, crap in the fall.

I am hesitant to expect a flurry here in Wilkesboro, NC. And that's in the northern foothills.

80 degree week...plus any snow will be wind whipped...accumulations may be tough at 3,000 ft.

I sound way negative right now...but hey....the chance is there.

[John1122]

Total Euro Accum maps show 3-6 band along the 40 corridor from about Knoxville to Greensboro. Slightly North of there 6-9 in far unelevated East TN to say Winston Salem/Lenoir. Another band of 9-12 around Mt Airy. With 12+ in upper East TN, down the spine of the apps on both NC and TN side. With increasing amounts to over 48 inches in WVA.

[tnweathernut]

Storms like this basically laugh at "climo"............. In fact, the potential is there for this to be a storm that NONE of us ever witness again in our lifetimes. Buckle up b/c most every model has a heck of a system no matter where it heads.

[burgertime]

AccuPro map looks like clown makeup. One inch for CLT and as you go north totals rise. Parts of Central northern NC get 6-12.... GSO and Winston are in the 4-8 territory. Craziness.

[John1122]

Storms like this basically laugh at "climo"............. In fact, the potential is there for this to be a storm that NONE of us ever witness again in our lifetimes. Buckle up b/c most every model has a heck of a system no matter where it heads.

Yes indeed, if this one behaves as it appears it's going to be one that operates far outside the bounds of normal climatology. Most all the great storms actually do.

[HKY_WX]

As long as it doesn't trend back to the north anything is possible. You essentially have a hurricane being drawn into a huge cutoff low aloft, with 500mb heights below 530dm. Very rare indeed. This could be SO much fun to watch. Kinda like the superstorm of 93.

[eyewall]

Right now I am still leaning towards a more mundane impact in central NC with some gusty winds in the 30's and a temperature drop overall. I still think any landfall will not be that far south.

[Met1985]

Storms like this basically laugh at "climo"............. In fact, the potential is there for this to be a storm that NONE of us ever witness again in our lifetimes. Buckle up b/c most every model has a heck of a system no matter where it heads.

Could not agree more with this statement. Look at the big storms that have happened but was not forecast, or the storms that was forecast but no one believed the models.

[WilkesboroDude]

Right now I am still leaning towards a more mundane impact in central NC with some gusty winds in the 30's and a temperature drop overall. I still think any landfall will not be that far south.

I agree, big temp drop at least 40s. Who knows, maybe things will stay the same for a winter weather event 5 days out and not change for once?

[WilkesboroDude]

Storms like this basically laugh at "climo"............. In fact, the potential is there for this to be a storm that NONE of us ever witness again in our lifetimes. Buckle up b/c most every model has a heck of a system no matter where it heads.

We are in the times of extreme weather...I won't dismiss the chance of more craziness. I agree, Sandy looks determined to get retired.

[jburns]

It's just crazy thinking we could see that much snow from this. Even snow at all this time of year would be crazy.

Relax Raleigh says NADA for central NC.

WITH SANDY PROJECTED TO LIE TO OUR NE-N...EXPECT CONTINUED WNW FLOW

ACROSS OUR REGION. DEEP CYCLONIC CURVATURE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN

CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OVER OUR FAR N-NE

COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FARTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPE

COMPONENT OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD AID TO SCOUR OUT THE

MOISTURE AND LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO

ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC.

[burgertime]

Don S. weighed in on the NY forum...

Some early thoughts on Sandy…

The combination of a severe block and deepening trough anchored in the Ohio/Tennessee Valley region that will likely go negative will lead to Sandy’s being captured and reeled to landfall. While the sudden left turn seen repeatedly on the ECMWF would amount to a rare event, it is not unprecedented.

The sharp left turn taken by Tropical Storm Dean (1983) during a strong block, albeit not as strong as the current one, provides an example.

http://weather.unisy.../DEAN/track.gif

Hurricane #8 (1991) aka the “Perfect Storm” provides another illustration. That storm developed during a block that rivals the current one in magnitude.

http://weather.unisy...991/8/track.gif

Right now, my thinking is that the area with the highest possibility of landfall extends from the Virginia Capes to extreme eastern Massachusetts. With Sandy’s being stronger at this stage than had been depicted on some of the guidance from a few days ago and the severe block largely precluding an exit out to sea, I suspect that the deepening trough will have an easier time capturing Sandy. The quickening timeframe for capture may well explain the southward evolution in the guidance over the past 24 hours.

Baroclinic deepening from growing interaction with the trough and Sandy’s passage over the Gulf Stream will likely allow it to conserve much of its strength. Its coming ashore with Category 1 maximum sustained winds is a distinct possibility.

In terms of impacts, even if Sandy comes ashore along the southern region of the Delmarva, its windfield will be expansive. Hence, gales and coastal flooding would be likely along the South Shore of Long Island, the New Jersey Coast, and coastal southern New England. For reference, one should keep in mind that Hurricane #8 (1991) impacted those areas, even as it remained some 150 to 200 miles offshore. Moreover, that storm’s central pressure fell to 972 mb. Sandy might have a central pressure 15-30 mb lower if one errs on the side of conservatism.

Finally, it should be noted that following Hurricane #8 (1991), the Arctic Oscillation rebounded. Some of the ensembles point to a similar outcome following Sandy. Overall, November wound up colder than normal across most of the U.S., except for the West Coast and northern Mid-Atlantic/New England.

The latest run of the CFSv2 shows the eastern third of the U.S. being colder than normal for November, except for northern New England. The major point is that the pattern following Sandy could feature a sizable area of cool anomalies for November. Should that cold materialize, it would remain to be seen whether December would feature the kind of reversal to widespread warmth that occurred in 1991.

[Brick Tamland]

Relax Raleigh says NADA for central NC.

WITH SANDY PROJECTED TO LIE TO OUR NE-N...EXPECT CONTINUED WNW FLOW

ACROSS OUR REGION. DEEP CYCLONIC CURVATURE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN

CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OVER OUR FAR N-NE

COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FARTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPE

COMPONENT OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD AID TO SCOUR OUT THE

MOISTURE AND LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO

ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC.

They wouldn't mention anything else this far out.

[jburns]

They wouldn't mention anything else this far out.

Might as well shut them down then. We can now cast on our own without spending millions.

[Brick Tamland]

Might as well shut them down then. We can now cast on our own without spending millions.

RAH is usually pretty conservative. I doubt they will mention anything about snow, even if it is just flurries, until at least 48 hours ahead of time.

[LithiaWx]

My first impressions are that this will be a monster storm. I also think uncertainty is pretty high due to the fact we are dealing with a tropical system. The exact track of sandy is going to decide everything and that track is far from set within any reasonable cone it seems. I'm very skeptical about who gets what but if sandys hits the us someone is going to get pounded.