Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

[deltadog03]

SMASHES NYC

edit...lol GFS does

[eyewall]

SMASHES NYC

I should take a trip to visit my brother in West Islip

[burgertime]

SMASHES NYC

This would be a pretty catastrophic storm if GFS is correct. I'm not good at reading the maps when it comes to hurricanes but wouldn't this create a crazy storm surge for NYC?

[chapelhillwx]

SMASHES NYC

I have to imagine the coastal flooding would be insane, especially if it pushes all the water up into the city as it moves.

[buckeyefan1]

I just reupped my subscription for SV...so if no one is around to update on the Euro while I won't be doing a PBP I can at least tell everyone what I see.

It has begun

From Brad Brad Panovich facebook feed

Sharper trough and better ridging. Awesome looking fujiwhara too on the 12z GFS

[tnweathernut]

Definitely sounds like the GFS is coming around to the Euro solution. The big question is.....................Will the Euro step toward the GFS at 12z or......... will it stick to its guns or even more dramatically, phase sooner and come even further west?

[CLTwx]

Just think how many hours the NE Fetch would be for NYC/LI and points east/north. 3 Cycles of full moon. Crazy if it verifites.

This would be a pretty catastrophic storm if GFS is correct. I'm not good at reading the maps when it comes to hurricanes but wouldn't this create a crazy storm surge for NYC?

[Isopycnic]

I should take a trip to visit my brother in West Islip

I wish I could afford to take off next week to see my brother on the moraine in Sag Harbor/ Southampton.

[mackerel_sky]

On yahoo news,they are already calling it Frankenstorm !! That is lame!

[buckeyefan1]

From the NE sf....this has been a steady feature the past couple of days.

This is ridiculous. Two left exit regions and two right entrance regions pretty much collocated at Sandy's location. I drew the jet streak directions in green and labeled left exit with LEx and right entrance with REn. The jet east of Maine is an EASTERLY jet which makes that region a left exit region. Pretty incredible. I do not think a 940mb low is out of the cards, at all.

EDIT: To add the picture instead of the link

[griteater]

Canadian...

[WilkesboroDude]

NWS Blacksburg

Will have our forecast weighted toward the solution put forth by HPC

which incorporates elements of both the GFS and ecwmf. Both models

bring colder 850 mb air into the region on the back side of the cold

front so will be increasing the potential snowfall areas in the

west...and extending them farther east than the prior forecast.

Precipitation is expected to occur in the east coincident the cold

front as it stalls and it rides along the western extent of the

precipitation shield associated with Sandy/S low. Also...in the

west...strong northwest flow will help maintain upslope showers

across southeast West Virginia and neighboring section of southwest

Virginia. Given the latest trends toward colder 850 mb and surface

temperatures in this region...we anticipate more of these showers

will be snow showers from Monday Onward...especially during the

overnight hours. By Wednesday...the precipitation in the east is

expected to have exited the region. However...the upslope

precipitation will continue in the west as we maintain a strong

pressure gradient. The winds from Monday through Tuesday may gust 25

to 30 miles per hour at higher elevations.

[NCSNOW]

Allright Burger. Spill the euro beans. Should be rolling and thanks for coughing up the dough again this winter. Just make sure Robert has your password!

[HKY18]

Euro drops 48 inches of snow in N WVA and S central PA. Edit: that's last nights run sorry

[WilkesboroDude]

EURO is much further SOUTH compared to some of the other models...ew

[DopplerWx]

Euro stays the same. Absolutely bombs at 96hrs. Also it is very close to the eastern coast of florida at 48hr

[Brick Tamland]

Briefing from RAH.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/content/SandyBriefing_25Oct2012.pdf

[buckeyefan1]

Euro looks sw from the 0z run. Just southeast of DC as it makes landfall

[NCSNOW]

Big snows coming with this track

[Stormsfury]

On yahoo news,they are already calling it Frankenstorm !! That is lame!

The article on yahoo with the name, they read Cisco's discussion also from HPC

[HKY18]

Euro drops 12" in NW NC!!!!!!! And I'm not talking about rain

[buckeyefan1]

wow

[Amos83]

This run of the Euro seems to be coming in much further SW than previous runs if my eyes are working properly.... interesting

[Brick Tamland]

Looking forward to some snow total maps.

[WilkesboroDude]

Defiantly don't wanna bite on the current EURO...just don't see that very climatology like. Not likely to happen IMO.

[burgertime]

Sorry I was running late on this. God bless the Euro, right now 2m temps might be a factor but this gives a lot of people in NC a chance at some flakes. Looks like from about Winston north has the best chance. If the Euro keeps trending this way though CLT might be in the thick of it.

[burgertime]

Defiantly don't wanna bite on the current EURO...just don't see that very climatology like. Not likely to happen IMO.

While 850's are there, SFC temps could be problematic...of course with enough evap cooling and heavy rates maybe it can overcome? Right now sfc temps for NC outside of the mountains only get into the low 40's.

[burgertime]

After the cold air moves in from CLT north around .25 or a little more qpf falls. From around 40 to Winston to RDU and north .50 and up falls.

[burgertime]

Euro drops 12" in NW NC!!!!!!! And I'm not talking about rain

That might be a little generous...I'm seeing more around .75 but it's hard to tell given the maps I'm looking at...def. .50.

[burgertime]

For when the board comes back fully online. This is what the Euro had for NC...of course take this with a massive boulder of salt. (thanks to Eyewall for posting this on facebook and doing the legwork)