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Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

I'm don't think we'll get a lot of damaging wind, flooding rains, or snow here, this far south, but is the DGEX physically possible? I mean, could it really happen, if the storm plays out exactly the way that model is showing? I just can't see how, this early in the season.

Euro is kinda similar. It does bring snow down to Raleigh.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Something about the trend being our friend going southwest for the liquid and a super phase that pulls the cold air down far enough.

Yeah, trend I see over the last 24 hrs is for the central U.S. trough to dig and close off farther south...colder looking solution for next week regardless of whether there is any precip (strong downslope east of the Apps).

You can see the deep anomaly trough here over the eastern U.S. with the strong block to the north.

gefstues.png

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Yeah, trend I see over the last 24 hrs is for the central U.S. trough to dig and close off farther south...colder looking solution for next week regardless of whether there is any precip (strong downslope east of the Apps).

You can see the deep anomaly trough here over the eastern U.S. with the strong block to the north.

What we wouldn't give to have this look in January for a duration of around 2 weeks and disturbances rolling out of the west. One can dream can't he. Either way pretty amazing given it's only November.

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Stormsfury

Stormsfury

Posted
Posted

Just to add a brief note, I think Cisco at HPC has a pretty decent idea of what's going to happen, with the media if this unusual and rare merger occurs as expected.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

942 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

VALID 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012

...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE

MID ATLANTIC COAST...

PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S

SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH

HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR

TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO

A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE

ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO

TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD

SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN,

INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE

LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC

CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, WHEN ONE PART OF THE NATION IS EXPERIENCING

A VERY ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE, THE REMAINDER IS

RELATIVELY CALM. THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT PROVE THE EXCEPTION, WITH A

FAIRLY BENIGN FEED OF PACIFIC AIR INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN AND

CENTRAL STATES. THE FAR WEST, PARTICULAR NORTH OF CALIFORNIA, WILL

HAVE ENOUGH SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE PERIOD WET AND

UNSETTLED.

CISCO

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Monday Temperatures in Avery County are likely to remain in the 20s all day with a stiff wind.

To early to say exactly how much snow will fall.....at least a dusting.

From Ray's Weather (for the northern NC mtns)...

"The change after Saturday is nothing short of shocking. Colder air overtakes the region on gusty winds Sunday (a few showers still possible). Monday through Wednesday will be amazingly cold for late October with gusty winds. High temperatures by Tuesday will be 35-40 degrees colder than yesterday. The shock of such a big change and the wind will make it feel even colder. Snow flurries will be possible from Sunday night on"

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CandymanColumbusGA

CandymanColumbusGA

Posted
Posted

12z NAM is out to 35 (don't have SV access yet) and it appears to be a little quicker with Sandy...slightly colder with the cold front and a little west of the 6z NAM (though it's hard to tell)...time will tell where it goes from there. Huge boulder of salt of course.

:lol: The 12Z NAM has Sandy doing a loop-de-loop (about like the 6Z) over Miami and then shifts it northeast. It's pretty entertaining.

However, it does have the s/w over Montana a bit stronger and a touch south by hr 54. That's going to be interesting to watch (and what we should be looking at, as well as the block, instead of Sandy).

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

:lol: The 12Z NAM has Sandy doing a loop-de-loop (about like the 6Z) over Miami and then shifts it northeast. It's pretty entertaining.

However, it does have the s/w over Montana a bit stronger and a touch south by hr 54. That's going to be interesting to watch (and what we should be looking at, as well as the block, instead of Sandy).

Haha true that. Trying to watch the NAM predict Sandy is entertainment in it self. The NAM at this far out is always crazy with it's solutions. Should be interesting to see the GFS.

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chapelhillwx

chapelhillwx

Posted
Posted

The snow the DGEX is spitting out is absolutely absurd. That'd be a single-storm record surpassing Jan 2000 in the Triangle and it'd be in OCTOBER. I wonder how close to the event we'd need to be to reasonably expect that happening? I'll totally skip class and drive home if I need to but obviously there's no point in counting on the DGEX five days out! :weenie:

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

The snow the DGEX is spitting out is absolutely absurd. That'd be a single-storm record surpassing Jan 2000 in the Triangle and it'd be in OCTOBER. I wonder how close to the event we'd need to be to reasonably expect that happening? I'll totally skip class and drive home if I need to but obviously there's no point in counting on the DGEX five days out!

Even just a tenth of that would be crazy to have in October.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Latest Briefing from National Weather Service Morehead City:

http://www.erh.noaa....estBriefing.pdf

They feel the affects for North Carolina will only be on the very immediate coast and offshore.

Its MHX they tend to play it tight, they are infamous around here for writing short AFD like "It might storm some storms might be severe ", while all the other offices will have several paragraphs detailing the threat......they also seem to downplay big events that other offices are jumping all over, then they will hype events that all the other offices downplay.

That said when I see the forecast track from NHC I can see why they have those wind maps.....

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