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Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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What type of winds are we expecting west to east across nc?

This is from wxbrad's facebook page...

post-382-0-55228100-1351121252_thumb.jpg

254256_399372156801913_1776863428_n.jpg

Shoot! I got some securing loose objects to do after work tomorrow... Long duration wind event could actually come Mon/Tues if the phase is realized and it occludes over the mid-atlantic/oh valley.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Venture to say we have a Cat 2 at the moment, mcp in the mid - low 960's, and still deepening at a good clip... Talked to one of our on air chief's here in the east this evening, trying to wrap our heads around all this. He was asking about where the transition would take place, I told him around 200 miles off HAT it should be well underway.

I would guess by looking at the rapidly improving satellite presentation that it's a Cat 3 now. Very impressive!

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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000

URNT12 KNHC 250026

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012

A. 25/00:10:10Z

B. 18 deg 48 min N

076 deg 28 min W

C. 700 mb 2778 m

D. 79 kt

E. 300 deg 10 nm

F. 040 deg 81 kt

G. 300 deg 10 nm

H. EXTRAP 964 mb

I. 9 C / 3048 m

J. 14 C / 3047 m

K. 10 C / NA

L. OPEN SE

M. E09/32/18

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF302 0518A SANDY OB 08

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 96 KT SE QUAD 00:15:00Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

MAX FL TEMP 15 C 298 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

FREQUENT LIGHTNING NW EYEWALL INBOUND

post-3675-0-35781900-1351121955.jpg

GOES23452012298fgpvfm.jpg

GOES00152012299ojB36p.jpg

One heck of a convective burst on the NW side.

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ECUPiratewx

ECUPiratewx

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Whoa someone go tell Sandy its the end of frickin Oct lol......Chris not sure about 50+ here would think it would have to be further west than most models have it...at least IMO the real question is how does her going ape**** tonight change if at all the way the models handle a small deep storm.

I was thinking the same thing...seemed odd to me. I'm wondering right now if this strengthening could be a game changer (as it kind of seems you're thinking). Don't read any specific meaning into that...I still don't know enough to venture a guess as to what it could mean.

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

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This setup is about as close of a setup to Hurricane Hazel with synoptics as one would ever see.

Important to see what happens Friday evening off Florida.

It was at that point that back in 1954 Hurricane Hazel leaned back NNW in track and was crossing the coast of NC with less than 12 hours warning.

From reading historical accounts of Hazel, individuals in SENC did not know until as late as 300pm they would be dealing with a historic storm at sunrise the next morning

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/10/1014_041014_hurricane_hazel.html

On October 14, Air Force Capt. William Harrell, a meteorologist, was aboard a B-29 bomber that had been assigned to investigate Hazel as the storm pounded northward near the Bahamas. Harrell, who had flown into several other hurricanes, was astonished by the way Hazel's winds were thrashing the sea.

"Usually the ocean is blue or green with little cotton-white patches," Harrell later told United Press International. "But the hurricane eye was like a sheer white sheet as far as I could see. To me, this was truly a phenomenal sea. The force of the … wind was cutting the tops off all waves and making the ocean a continuous mass of whitecaps and frothing foam."

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
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18z DGEX brings snow well down into NC

east.eta.ptype138.gif

east.eta.ptype150.gif

Insane....if that were to pan out, it would pretty much set the earliest snow record for a lot of places in NC east of the mountains I would imagine. I cant recall it ever snowing before Halloween here in fact I think the earliest on record here is sometime around Nov 10-15th.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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The DGEX mainframes obviously melted down @ 18z, I had to do a double take to verify this was inches, initial thought was cm, but yeah, 80+"... Iso, or close to him gets a 1' Oh the DGEX, WTF. SE VA is good for 24-30" Maybe the most epic DGEX run of all time here folks

DGEX 18z SN-fall in inches (probably better served in banter but what the heck)

post-382-0-41131600-1351129545_thumb.jpg

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

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This setup is about as close of a setup to Hurricane Hazel with synoptics as one would ever see.

Important to see what happens Friday evening off Florida.

It was at that point that back in 1954 Hurricane Hazel leaned back NNW in track and was crossing the coast of NC with less than 12 hours warning.

From reading historical accounts of Hazel, individuals in SENC did not know until as late as 300pm they would be dealing with a historic storm at sunrise the next morning

Ive read alot of those personal statements. If you ever have time its really neat to hear from people prespective how all that unfolded. Hazel was such a crushing blow due to its forward speed. The extropical factors come into play past our area and really put a licking on the lakes area and canada. Most everyone thought it would be heading OTS and it headed right on into Brunswick county.You would see the same thing with Sandy if it doesn;t make the NE veer coming out of the Bahamas like forecasted.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

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I love the DGEX. 100% never :) (at this stage)

The DGEX mainframes obviously melted down @ 18z, I had to do a double take to verify this was inches, initial thought was cm, but yeah, 80+"... Iso, or close to him gets a 1' Oh the DGEX, WTF. SE VA is good for 24-30" Maybe the most epic DGEX run of all time here folks

DGEX 18z SN-fall in inches (probably better served in banter but what the heck)

post-382-0-41131600-1351129545_thumb.jpg

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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Seriously though, if Sandy is captured by the trough and occludes over PA I could see some sn squalls into southern VA and NC from about Mt. Airy to Hillsborough on Mon/Tues, that would lean towards a ECMWF solution, maybe take the over on pressure, 960-970 range vs something in the 950's which seems unrealistic at this point given the globals bias with cyclone pressures in the mid latitudes. Kind of reading around, the NOGAPS may actually be useful in this setup in that the math, albeit decades old, is better at handling the waves compared to the newer 4-dvar models which can suffer from parameterization issues in the cumulous fields during energy rich interactions.

This is 12z

12znogaps850mbTSLPp12108.gif

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