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Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

Fire weather...

fire weather conditions becoming an increasing concern over the

days ahead. Overall...many parts of the County Warning Area have not experienced

meaningful rain since early October. Examining various RAWS

sites shows that 10-hour fuel moistures are dropping into the 8-10

percent range during the afternoon/min relative humidity time. For now...we do

not have the wind or relative humidity criteria in any state. However...the

outlook for meaningful rain is slim. Most models and official TPC

track for Sandy are east to well east of the middle-Atlantic

coast...hence no rainfall for our region. This will also place our

County Warning Area in the strong subsidence zone on the west side of Sandy.

Rainfall associated with the approaching frontal system will

likely dry up as it attempts to cross the alleghanys into this

subsidence area in addition to the normal downslope effects.

However...the combined effects of the frontal system and the

large scale wind field around Sandy will yield tight gusty

northwest winds behind the frontal system. There appears to be a

good possibility at this juncture of red flag criteria being met

across much if not all of the County Warning Area this weekend.

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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

Is the Euro still th eonly one showing this has a huge event? I thought most of the model runs showed it staying out to sea. I know some runs of the Euro have it going out to sea some when it gets past NC but then hanging a left and slamming into the New York area. Are some of the other models coming around to the scenario? If so, then I guess I was premature in saying I think it's going to head out to sea. I am just used to these extreme solutions on the models never coming to happen.

Nearly all of the models are taking it inland, including now the 12z GFS.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

Is the Euro still th eonly one showing this has a huge event? I thought most of the model runs showed it staying out to sea. I know some runs of the Euro have it going out to sea some when it gets past NC but then hanging a left and slamming into the New York area. Are some of the other models coming around to the scenario? If so, then I guess I was premature in saying I think it's going to head out to sea. I am just used to these extreme solutions on the models never coming to happen.

All models seem to b converging on the Euro. The Euro itself moved even a bit further west at 12z. Has it making landfall near Cape May heading NNW. That track could cause hundreds of millions of dollars of improvements to NJ.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

Full moon expected... :o

" intergalactic planetary alignment and mathematical coincidences of such interstellar heavenly phenomena are hard to dismiss outright"

http://www.longislandpress.com/2011/03/18/march-19-supermoon-phenomenon-incites-fears-of-apocalyptic-natural-disasters/

A full supermoon occurred on Aug. 19, 2005, .......Katrina

supermoon occurred on Dec. 12, 2004......Cataclysmic 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami, which claimed the lives of more than 230,000 people from 14 countries...

The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. A similar meteorological situation occurred in October 1991, when Hurricane Grace became absorbed by a Nor'easter, becoming the so-called Perfect Storm that killed 13 people and did over $200 million in damage in the Northeast U.S. - Dr. Masters

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

From Hurricane Center...

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ALSO FALLEN TO 973 MB BASED ON DATA FROM THE PLANE.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION UNTIL

THE CYCLONE MOVES NEAR OR OVER EASTERN JAMAICA...AND THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING AT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...

ADDITIONAL LAND INTERACTION WITH EASTERN CUBA AND STRUCTURAL

CHANGES DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAKE THE

INTENSITY FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT

IN LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION VIA LATENT HEAT

RELEASE...BUT THIS COULD BE COMPENSATED FOR BY BAROCLINIC

PROCESSES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND...SHOWING SANDY BECOMING A

POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

Full moon on Sunday. :o

" intergalactic planetary alignment and mathematical coincidences of such interstellar heavenly phenomena are hard to dismiss outright"

http://www.longislandpress.com/2011/03/18/march-19-supermoon-phenomenon-incites-fears-of-apocalyptic-natural-disasters/

A full supermoon occurred on Aug. 19, 2005, .......Katrina

supermoon occurred on Dec. 12, 2004......Cataclysmic 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami, which claimed the lives of more than 230,000 people from 14 countries...

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/05/120503-supermoon-saturday-closest-earth-tides-disasters-space-science/

"The moon's proximity won't have any major effects on our planet, according to astronomers, who hope to dispel fears that the looming lunar orb causes natural disasters.

"While we know that during new and full moons the tides are greatest—and if it's in concert with a storm surge it might produce unusual flooding—there is no scientific evidence that earthquakes and other natural disasters are connected," Gyuk said.

"

It's confirmation bias. We have 12 full moons every year, and some of those are super. With those odds, naturally some are going to occur during natural disasters.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
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http://news.national...-space-science/

"The moon's proximity won't have any major effects on our planet, according to astronomers, who hope to dispel fears that the looming lunar orb causes natural disasters.

"While we know that during new and full moons the tides are greatest—and if it's in concert with a storm surge it might produce unusual flooding—there is no scientific evidence that earthquakes and other natural disasters are connected," Gyuk said.

"

It's confirmation bias. We have 12 full moons every year, and some of those are super. With those odds, naturally some are going to occur during natural disasters.

Bias or no bias, some scientists believe it. The "Perfect Storm" occurred with the full moon. It's interesting with just only 12 full moons every year, natural disasters happen near those dates somewhat frequently.

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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

Bias or no bias, some scientists believe it. The "Perfect Storm" occurred with the full moon. It's interesting with just only 12 full moons every year, natural disasters happen near those dates somewhat frequently.

A very small number of scientists does not a consensus make. The ones who think it does may not have any evidence. Apart from the tides and very small change in microgravity, there's no mechanism for it to happen.

There are many natural disasters each year, some will naturally fall on full moons. I can easily find hundreds of natural disasters that did not fall on full moons.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

Get your flashlight and black construction paper ready for your incoming flizzard alert ;)

May not need the black construction paper this time around with high winds, it could really whip something down in the street lights. Hoping for a token flake to fly off the mountains into the foothills at this point. Or off the truckers coming down the mountain on 421.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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Pretty epic 6 day prog from the HPC, 144hrs out, crazy stuff...

9mhwbgfnl_conus.gif

72hr QPF

Sandy_rainfall.gif

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

326 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 27 2012 - 12Z WED OCT 31 2012

...CHANCES INCREASING FOR A MAJOR STORM IMPACTING THE MID ATLANTIC

AND NORTHEAST...

PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/24 GEFS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND

PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. WITH ALL THE ACTION ALONG THE EAST

COAST, THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES ARE AWASH IN PACIFIC

AIR, WITH AN ENSEMBLE MEAN SERVING THOSE REGIONS WELL, CONSIDERING

THE INHERENT TIMING ISSUES IN THE MORE OPEN FLOW THERE. THE USE OF

THE MEAN FOR THE EAST AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACILITATES MORE

LEEWAY TO ADJUST SANDY'S TRACK AS NEEDED BASED ON LATER FORECASTS

FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AS WELL AS THE PROBLEMATIC

POST-TROPICAL PHASE OF THE CYCLONE.

WITH REGARD TO SANDY'S ULTIMATE FATE VIS A VIS THE AMPLIFIED POLAR

TROUGH OVER THE EAST, THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS AMONG THE

GUIDANCE FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, PARTICULARLY WITH

REGARD TO THE WHOLE OF THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE

DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, IN THE CASE OF THE 00Z/23 GFS AND GEM

GLOBAL, ARE OUTLIERS TO THE MAJORITY OF THEIR ENSEMBLE BROTHERS

AND SISTERS, WITH THE LION'S SHARE OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE

INDICATING A WHOLESALE INCORPORATION OF SANDY'S POST-TROPICAL

CIRCULATION INTO THE UPPER VORTEX CLOSING OVER THE CONTINENT. THE

ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN SEEMS DESTINED TO BECOME DOMINATED BY BLOCKY

HIGHS AND LOWS, WITH DECREASING WIGGLE ROOM FOR EVEN LARGE

FEATURES LIKE SANDY. THE BLOCKING IS KEY TO THE OPPORTUNITY FOR

THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC STORM OF TROPICAL ORIGIN AND

THE NORTH AMERICAN VORTEX OF POLAR ORIGIN. SOME OF THE MORE

AGGRESSIVE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT SPIN UP A TREMENDOUSLY DEEP

SURFACE LOW BACK ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND LONG ISLAND

INCLUDE THE 00Z/24 ECMWF, 00Z/24 NOGAPS, AND 06Z/24 GLOBAL

HURRICANE MODEL. IF IT BECOMES CLEARER WITH THE ADVENT OF THE

12Z/24 GUIDANCE THAT A LARGE HYBRID LOW IS LIKELY DAY 6, WILL

ADJUST THE FINAL PROGS TOWARD A DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION, WHICH

WOULD ROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE MANUAL FORECAST AND DEEPEN THE

PRESSURE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE LUNAR CYCLE WILL PROVE TO BE A FACTOR

IN THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING, WITH HIGH TIDES MOST

ANOMALOUS FROM THAT EFFECT ALONE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER THE

FULL MOON ON SUNDAY.

FINAL...

MADE ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL

ISSUANCE. TWO OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL HOLDOUTS FOR A

CONSOLIDATED EAST COAST STORM FROM THE 00Z/24 CYCLE, THE GFS AND

GEM GLOBAL, SWITCHED TO THE MERGER CAMP FOR THE 12Z/24 RUN, ALBEIT

FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREFERRED CLUSTER. THE 12Z/24 GEFS MEAN

TRENDED DEEPER THAN THE 00Z/24 VERSION, WITH A GREATER NUMBER OF

WOUND-UP MEMBERS, CENTERED OVER NEW YORK CITY ON THE MORNING OF

DAY 6. THE 12Z/24 ECMWF TRACKS SANDY WEST OF THE BOTH THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE TRACK AND THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE EARLY PART OF

THE SHORT RANGE, ALLOWING THE CIRCULATION TO BE CAPTURED BY THE

AMPLIFYING TROUGH SOONER, ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE DELMARVA

PENINSULA DAY 5.

THE PARTICULARS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE

LATITUDE AT WHICH THE ANTICIPATED MERGER TAKES PLACE- A POINT TO

BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS. IN GENERAL, EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND

HIGH WINDS CLOSE TO WHERE THE POST-TROPICAL CORE OF SANDY TRACKS,

WITH HEAVY SNOWS IN A CRESCENT ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE MERGED

VORTEX. THE BEST BET FOR SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER

THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THOUGH EVEN ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS

OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE

MEASURABLE SNOW.

CISCO

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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Venture to say we have a Cat 2 at the moment, mcp in the mid - low 960's, and still deepening at a good clip... Talked to one of our on air chief's here in the east this evening, trying to wrap our heads around all this. He was asking about where the transition would take place, I told him around 200 miles off HAT it should be well underway.

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MillzPirate

MillzPirate

Posted
Posted

Venture to say we have a Cat 2 at the moment, mcp in the mid - low 960's, and still deepening at a good clip... Talked to one of our on air chief's here in the east this evening, trying to wrap our heads around all this. He was asking about where the transition would take place, I told him around 200 miles off HAT it should be well underway.

35 N is usually where it happens... I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like this though

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