Pilotwx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The strong blocking High made this thing turn and is speeding it up I think the trough is getting ready to work its magic, i think it's going to pull it farther SW than modeled. center clocking along at 25-30mph. This thing ain't going to stop or turn on a dime. And it's going to bring a hellavu water dome with it at landfall. If direction is mostly W or WNW at landfall I can see this thing plowing right on into Ohio or western NY before any turn happens. The bigger question is how much precip gets pushed south into our mtns and possibly piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Isn't it just computer model guidance blends? I know yesterday a few runs of the GFS had a little blip of snow in the GSP area....perhaps it was just picking that up? I was wondering the same thing. Burger, WRAL said wintry mix in Raleigh NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Probably. But IMHO I don't really think there is much of a chance so that's why I replied with "hype" because someone at TWC created that map for the broadcast team to actually talk about when I think you would not broadcast that since it's highly unlikely. Just my 2 cents. Oh I didn't realize he was talking about a map...I thought he was talking about the local forecast via twc.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 A friend said it was sleeting a tiny bit in Reidsville. Is that even possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The strong blocking High made this thing turn and is speeding it up I think the trough is getting ready to work its magic, i think it's going to pull it farther SW than modeled. Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't we still need it to rotate a good bit once it made landfall even if it did move SW? I guess for you guys in the northwest a little bump southwest can make a big difference though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 After looking @ some Sat Images. we may be looking @ a situation where we have back building toward NC the rest of today and into tonight. I think we see some area east of the Apps in VA and NC get into the action with some wet snow. The storm is not going behave normal, we have to expect the unexpected. It looks like to me that a deeper trough is digging soutwest toward LA, AL, MISS. this looks to pull the storm first west then southwest just how far is the question to be anwsered. I thought you quit drinking? http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Oh I didn't realize he was talking about a map...I thought he was talking about the local forecast via twc.com LOL...I just assumed he was talking about a map. It could have been local NWS product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Burger, WRAL said wintry mix in Raleigh NC For real? When? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 LeConte has 7 inches this morning, NWS point forecast says 18 more...with 60 mph wind gusts, sustained at 45. Not sure how this doesn't warrant a blizzard warning. Saw on their blog that quite a few people are talking about hiking up to look at the snow. They said snow draws in lots of people to there. They are trying to stress to people not to wear jeans etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 What happened to the High Country Web Cams/ Resortcams.com? They must have crashed which saddens me very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Burger, WRAL said wintry mix in Raleigh NC I need to get my geography straight...I could see based on the last few runs of the NAM RDU getting in on some wintry action...but anyone south east of there I have a hard time seeing anyone get lucky. I'll just be hoping for a rouge flurry in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I think we are with in 3 to 6 hrs when we will see the SW path take hold of storm. Looking @ SAT images it looks to me that the storm has started to make a more west. Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't we still need it to rotate a good bit once it made landfall even if it did move SW? I guess for you guys in the northwest a little bump southwest can make a big difference though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 What happened to the High Country Web Cams/ Resortcams.com? It started having problems last night, now I've not been connect all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I think we are with in 3 to 6 hrs when we will see the SW path take hold of storm. Looking @ SAT images it looks to me that the storm has started to make a more west. The center of circulation is within range of the Dover, DE NEXRAD. It's pretty easy to track. We are 2-3 hours from landfall somewhere between Atlantic City and Ocean City it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Center is located in the middle of that curve on the right hand side of the radar echoes. Moving WNW. Which looks to be just about dead on where the 12z GFS had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 ..AVERY COUNTY... BEECH MOUNTAIN 1.5 108 PM 10/29 LOCAL POLICE ...HAYWOOD COUNTY... 8 NNW MAGGIE VALLEY 1.0 116 PM 10/29 CATALOOCHEE. ...MADISON COUNTY... 5 NNW MARS HILL 1.0 112 PM 10/29 WOLF RIDGE. ...MITCHELL COUNTY... BULADEAN 1.0 111 PM 10/29 FROM TRACE TO 2 INCHES. ...YANCEY COUNTY... MOUNT MITCHELL STATE 2.5 121 PM 10/29 SNOW BLOWING AROUND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Moisture trying to move in from the north, so maybe these constant flurries will turn into something more substantial here soon. One thing is for sure...the wind has picked up a lot in the last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Oh I didn't realize he was talking about a map...I thought he was talking about the local forecast via twc.com Actually burger, I was - I happened to glance at the 5 day and thought I had typed the wrong zip code. Either way, there's just no good reason to throw that out there unless the purpose was to create intrigue (which doesn't qualify as a good reason to me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFFaithful Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 LeConte has 7 inches this morning, NWS point forecast says 18 more...with 60 mph wind gusts, sustained at 45. Not sure how this doesn't warrant a blizzard warning. Saw on their blog that quite a few people are talking about hiking up to look at the snow. They said snow draws in lots of people to there. They are trying to stress to people not to wear jeans etc. jeans...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Philadelphia PA is the NEXRAD I have been looking @. The center of circulation is within range of the Dover, DE NEXRAD. It's pretty easy to track. We are 2-3 hours from landfall somewhere between Atlantic City and Ocean City it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Actually burger, I was - I happened to glance at the 5 day and thought I had typed the wrong zip code. Either way, there's just no good reason to throw that out there unless the purpose was to create intrigue (which doesn't qualify as a good reason to me). Well like I said there is some computer guidance that suggest it's possible....of course it probably won't happen but they at least have some reason to put that..and as I understood it the local forecast is just an automated script that pulls from computer guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Posted By: :-| @DopplerNC Big KUDOS for the bravery of the #Coastguard and their rescue of the survivors of the HMS Bounty this morning. #USGS http://www.dvidshub.net/video/159583/coast-guard-rescues-14-searches-2-hms-bounty#.UI7NZaD6gk- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Philadelphia PA is the NEXRAD I have been looking @. Gotcha. You kept mentioning SAT that 's why I mentioned the Nexrad. ANYWHO... PHL has a better angle on the storm right now anyway and it's getting very hard to find the center. Looking that the base velocities it almost looks like it's heading due west towards the bay opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 What happened to the High Country Web Cams/ Resortcams.com? server crashed. transitioning to a new server when i talked with Mike Doble from Appnet, owner of resortcams.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Gotcha. You kept mentioning SAT that 's why I mentioned the Nexrad. ANYWHO... PHL has a better angle on the storm right now anyway and it's getting very hard to find the center. Looking that the base velocities it almost looks like it's heading due west towards the bay opening. Is there anything that could conceivably happen to get more moisture into the Piedmont of North Carolina? Would it just need that slight southwest jog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Is there anything that could conceivably happen to get more moisture into the Piedmont of North Carolina? Would it just need that slight southwest jog? Further SW than modeled. Have the upper high NE of Maine hold longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I just hope it keeps its forward speed up until it gets well inland, couldn't image the scene if it were to slow down or stall before it hits land. Gotcha. You kept mentioning SAT that 's why I mentioned the Nexrad. ANYWHO... PHL has a better angle on the storm right now anyway and it's getting very hard to find the center. Looking that the base velocities it almost looks like it's heading due west towards the bay opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Y'all, either my friends are drunk or something is going on that I'm not seeing. People are posting all on FB that there are flurries mixed in with the rain here in Kernersville. Can anyone confirm flurries east of the mtns? My personal opinion is that they are seeing blowing rain and mistaking it for flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS OF FAR WRN MD...WV...AND PARTS OF WRN VA CONCERNING...BLIZZARD VALID 291851Z - 300045Z SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z WITH SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING TO 1-2 IN/HR...AND LOCALLY HIGHER RATES ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED FOR ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 FT. DISCUSSION...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ONGOING AS OF MID AFTERNOON OWING TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME -- I.E. 20-30 KT OF NWLY FLOW SAMPLED BY THE CHARLESTON WV VWP WITHIN THE 0.5-1-KM LAYER. INTENSE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HURRICANE SANDY AND A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL YIELD A MARKED INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED ADIABATIC COOLING WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER...WITH SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING TO 1 IN/HR FOR ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 FT AFTER 21Z. HIGHER RATES TO 2 IN/HR /LOCALLY HIGHER/ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ASCENT IS AUGMENTED BY WAA AND STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE FRINGES OF THE WARM CORE ACCOMPANYING BECOMING-POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY...AND NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING TAKES PLACE. NAM/RAPID-REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY 100-MB DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS...ATOP -2C TO -4C ISOTHERMAL LAYERS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SUPPORTING THESE HEAVY SNOW RATES. AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF SANDY...0-1-KM MEAN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 45-50 KT AFTER 21Z. AS SUCH...SUSTAINED NWLY/WNWLY WINDS OF 35-40 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED...STRONGEST OVER RIDGE TOPS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1/4 MILE WITH BLOWING SNOW...RESULTING IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..COHEN.. 10/29/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Y'all, either my friends are drunk or something is going on that I'm not seeing. People are posting all on FB that there are flurries mixed in with the rain here in Kernersville. Can anyone confirm flurries east of the mtns? My personal opinion is that they are seeing blowing rain and mistaking if for flurries. Thought you were nuts but.....................CONFIRMED!! No Sh&T! Really, really light though. I had to let it hit my black car in order to decipher. Edit - ok, now done. Only thing I can figure is when a cloud with heavier precip passes overhead, it's just enough to pop a few flurries down to the surface. Almost like grauple (sp?) for lack of a better description. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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