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Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

Posted
Posted

The strong blocking High made this thing turn and is speeding it up I think the trough is getting ready to work its magic, i think it's going to pull it farther SW than modeled.

center clocking along at 25-30mph. This thing ain't going to stop or turn on a dime. And it's going to bring a hellavu water dome with it at landfall. If direction is mostly W or WNW at landfall I can see this thing plowing right on into Ohio or western NY before any turn happens. The bigger question is how much precip gets pushed south into our mtns and possibly piedmont.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Probably.

But IMHO I don't really think there is much of a chance so that's why I replied with "hype" because someone at TWC created that map for the broadcast team to actually talk about when I think you would not broadcast that since it's highly unlikely. Just my 2 cents. smile.png

Oh I didn't realize he was talking about a map...I thought he was talking about the local forecast via twc.com

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

The strong blocking High made this thing turn and is speeding it up I think the trough is getting ready to work its magic, i think it's going to pull it farther SW than modeled.

Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't we still need it to rotate a good bit once it made landfall even if it did move SW? I guess for you guys in the northwest a little bump southwest can make a big difference though.

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

After looking @ some Sat Images. we may be looking @ a situation where we have back building toward NC the rest of today and into tonight. I think we see some area east of the Apps in VA and NC get into the action with some wet snow. The storm is not going behave normal, we have to expect the unexpected. It looks like to me that a deeper trough is digging soutwest toward LA, AL, MISS. this looks to pull the storm first west then southwest just how far is the question to be anwsered.

I thought you quit drinking?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

LeConte has 7 inches this morning, NWS point forecast says 18 more...with 60 mph wind gusts, sustained at 45. Not sure how this doesn't warrant a blizzard warning. Saw on their blog that quite a few people are talking about hiking up to look at the snow. They said snow draws in lots of people to there. They are trying to stress to people not to wear jeans etc.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Burger, WRAL said wintry mix in Raleigh NC

I need to get my geography straight...I could see based on the last few runs of the NAM RDU getting in on some wintry action...but anyone south east of there I have a hard time seeing anyone get lucky. I'll just be hoping for a rouge flurry in the morning.

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

Posted
Posted

I think we are with in 3 to 6 hrs when we will see the SW path take hold of storm. Looking @ SAT images it looks to me that the storm has started to make a more west.

Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't we still need it to rotate a good bit once it made landfall even if it did move SW? I guess for you guys in the northwest a little bump southwest can make a big difference though.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

I think we are with in 3 to 6 hrs when we will see the SW path take hold of storm. Looking @ SAT images it looks to me that the storm has started to make a more west.

The center of circulation is within range of the Dover, DE NEXRAD. It's pretty easy to track. We are 2-3 hours from landfall somewhere between Atlantic City and Ocean City it looks like.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

..AVERY COUNTY...

BEECH MOUNTAIN 1.5 108 PM 10/29 LOCAL POLICE

...HAYWOOD COUNTY...

8 NNW MAGGIE VALLEY 1.0 116 PM 10/29 CATALOOCHEE.

...MADISON COUNTY...

5 NNW MARS HILL 1.0 112 PM 10/29 WOLF RIDGE.

...MITCHELL COUNTY...

BULADEAN 1.0 111 PM 10/29 FROM TRACE TO 2 INCHES.

...YANCEY COUNTY...

MOUNT MITCHELL STATE 2.5 121 PM 10/29 SNOW BLOWING AROUND.

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Bevo

Bevo

Posted
Posted

Oh I didn't realize he was talking about a map...I thought he was talking about the local forecast via twc.com

Actually burger, I was - I happened to glance at the 5 day and thought I had typed the wrong zip code. Either way, there's just no good reason to throw that out there unless the purpose was to create intrigue (which doesn't qualify as a good reason to me).

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WFFaithful

WFFaithful

Posted
Posted

LeConte has 7 inches this morning, NWS point forecast says 18 more...with 60 mph wind gusts, sustained at 45. Not sure how this doesn't warrant a blizzard warning. Saw on their blog that quite a few people are talking about hiking up to look at the snow. They said snow draws in lots of people to there. They are trying to stress to people not to wear jeans etc.

jeans...lol

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Actually burger, I was - I happened to glance at the 5 day and thought I had typed the wrong zip code. Either way, there's just no good reason to throw that out there unless the purpose was to create intrigue (which doesn't qualify as a good reason to me).

Well like I said there is some computer guidance that suggest it's possible....of course it probably won't happen but they at least have some reason to put that..and as I understood it the local forecast is just an automated script that pulls from computer guidance.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

Philadelphia PA is the NEXRAD I have been looking @.

Gotcha. You kept mentioning SAT that 's why I mentioned the Nexrad. ANYWHO...

PHL has a better angle on the storm right now anyway and it's getting very hard to find the center. Looking that the base velocities it almost looks like it's heading due west towards the bay opening.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Gotcha. You kept mentioning SAT that 's why I mentioned the Nexrad. ANYWHO...

PHL has a better angle on the storm right now anyway and it's getting very hard to find the center. Looking that the base velocities it almost looks like it's heading due west towards the bay opening.

Is there anything that could conceivably happen to get more moisture into the Piedmont of North Carolina? Would it just need that slight southwest jog?

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

Posted
Posted

I just hope it keeps its forward speed up until it gets well inland, couldn't image the scene if it were to slow down or stall before it hits land.

Gotcha. You kept mentioning SAT that 's why I mentioned the Nexrad. ANYWHO...

PHL has a better angle on the storm right now anyway and it's getting very hard to find the center. Looking that the base velocities it almost looks like it's heading due west towards the bay opening.

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gritsnc

gritsnc

Posted
Posted

Y'all, either my friends are drunk or something is going on that I'm not seeing. People are posting all on FB that there are flurries mixed in with the rain here in Kernersville. Can anyone confirm flurries east of the mtns? My personal opinion is that they are seeing blowing rain and mistaking it for flurries.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2091

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0151 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS OF FAR WRN MD...WV...AND

PARTS OF WRN VA

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

mcd2091.gif VALID 291851Z - 300045Z SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z WITH SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING TO 1-2 IN/HR...AND LOCALLY HIGHER RATES ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED FOR ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 FT. DISCUSSION...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ONGOING AS OF MID AFTERNOON OWING TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME -- I.E. 20-30 KT OF NWLY FLOW SAMPLED BY THE CHARLESTON WV VWP WITHIN THE 0.5-1-KM LAYER. INTENSE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HURRICANE SANDY AND A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL YIELD A MARKED INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED ADIABATIC COOLING WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER...WITH SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING TO 1 IN/HR FOR ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 FT AFTER 21Z. HIGHER RATES TO 2 IN/HR /LOCALLY HIGHER/ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ASCENT IS AUGMENTED BY WAA AND STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE FRINGES OF THE WARM CORE ACCOMPANYING BECOMING-POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY...AND NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING TAKES PLACE. NAM/RAPID-REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY 100-MB DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS...ATOP -2C TO -4C ISOTHERMAL LAYERS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SUPPORTING THESE HEAVY SNOW RATES. AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF SANDY...0-1-KM MEAN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 45-50 KT AFTER 21Z. AS SUCH...SUSTAINED NWLY/WNWLY WINDS OF 35-40 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED...STRONGEST OVER RIDGE TOPS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1/4 MILE WITH BLOWING SNOW...RESULTING IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..COHEN.. 10/29/2012

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kvegas-wx

kvegas-wx

Posted
Posted

Y'all, either my friends are drunk or something is going on that I'm not seeing. People are posting all on FB that there are flurries mixed in with the rain here in Kernersville. Can anyone confirm flurries east of the mtns? My personal opinion is that they are seeing blowing rain and mistaking if for flurries.

Thought you were nuts but.....................CONFIRMED!! No Sh&T! Really, really light though. I had to let it hit my black car in order to decipher.

Edit - ok, now done. Only thing I can figure is when a cloud with heavier precip passes overhead, it's just enough to pop a few flurries down to the surface. Almost like grauple (sp?) for lack of a better description.

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