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Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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Moose4

Moose4

Posted
Posted

Sandy strengthened to 85mph overnight...wunderground may disable favorites and some features later today due to stress on servers...raysweather running slow for me.

Strong west turn w/ GFS ensembles...won't be zooming north after landfall with less qpf for NC.

at201218_ensmodel.gif

From the 11:00 NHC discussion:

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...

MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS

EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO

TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING FROM LONG ISLAND SOUTHWARD ALONG

THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND

EXTEND AS FAR INLAND AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND

DELAWARE BAY. A WEATHERFLOW REPORT INDICATES A SUSTAINED WIND OF 53

MPH...85 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 63 MPH...102 KM/H...HAS RECENTLY

OCCURRED ON LONG ISLAND AT EATONS NECK NEW YORK.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

943 mb and a 485-mile TS windfield. That's almost beyond belief.

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Amos83

Amos83

Posted
Posted

I'm still utterly confused at how GSP has a chance of rain/snow via computer models and CLT doesn't. Is it just the nature of the bands heading over the mountains into GSP?

NWS has 40% change of rain/snow for me but I am very doubtfull anything white will actually fall.

Tonight: A chance of rain showers before 4am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 38. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow showers before 7am, then a chance of snow showers between 7am and 8am, then a chance of rain showers after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

NWS has 40% change of rain/snow for me but I am very doubtfull anything white will actually fall.

Tonight: A chance of rain showers before 4am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 38. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow showers before 7am, then a chance of snow showers between 7am and 8am, then a chance of rain showers after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Maybe I was looking at the wrong thing on TWC....I'm with you I doubt we see anything. Who knows with this storm though.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Great morning to lose Internet at the office. How did the 12z runs look? Inching further southwest still? QPF increasing for the southern apps?

Nowcast time....they pretty much held serve but from what I've been reading on the main weather forum side the models have really only been correct on the general track so far.

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Moose4

Moose4

Posted
Posted

Maybe I was looking at the wrong thing on TWC....I'm with you I doubt we see anything. Who knows with this storm though.

Point forecast for Kannapolis (just up the road from Amos83) says the same thing, but the temp never gets below 38 and it looks like the window for potential flakes is very narrow, 3-8 am according to GSP. So they won't stick, but if my daughter gets to see some flying around the porch while waiting for the school bus tomorrow, I'd take that as a victory. :) I don't think it'll happen, but Sandy doesn't seem to like sticking to the rules so who knows.

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kvegas-wx

kvegas-wx

Posted
Posted

Is it me or is this storm moving very, very quickly WNW now? You watch the radar loops and it looks like somebody is standing on shore just reeling this thing in. What are the expected results if Sandy keeps forward speed? I thought I heard the original forecast was for the storm to slow down, come ashore and drift slowly northward.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

Is it me or is this storm moving very, very quickly WNW now? You watch the radar loops and it looks like somebody is standing on shore just reeling this thing in. What are the expected results if Sandy keeps forward speed? I thought I heard the original forecast was for the storm to slow down, come ashore and drift slowly northward.

It's moving rather quickly towards the coast now. Once inland it will slow down as it moves more WSW before it finally pulls north. It was supposed to come ashore first and then slow down. :)

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

Posted
Posted

After looking @ some Sat Images. we may be looking @ a situation where we have back building toward NC the rest of today and into tonight. I think we see some area east of the Apps in VA and NC get into the action with some wet snow. The storm is not going behave normal, we have to expect the unexpected. It looks like to me that a deeper trough is digging soutwest toward LA, AL, MISS. this looks to pull the storm first west then southwest just how far is the question to be anwsered.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/

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triadwx

triadwx

Posted
Posted

After looking @ some Sat Images. we may be looking @ a situation where we have back building toward NC the rest of today and into tonight. I think we see some area east of the Apps in VA and NC get into the action with some wet snow. The storm is not going behave normal, we have to expect the unexpected. It looks like to me that a deeper trough is digging soutwest toward LA, AL, MISS. this looks to pull the storm first west then southwest just how far is the question to be anwsered.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/

I've been thinking the same thing. I'm sure somewhere in the North Piedmont is going to get lucky. Also, possible school closings/delays somewhere in the Piedmont for snow I'm sure.

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kvegas-wx

kvegas-wx

Posted
Posted

center clocking along at 25-30mph. This thing ain't going to stop or turn on a dime. And it's going to bring a hellavu water dome with it at landfall. If direction is mostly W or WNW at landfall I can see this thing plowing right on into Ohio or western NY before any turn happens. The bigger question is how much precip gets pushed south into our mtns and possibly piedmont.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

Isn't it just computer model guidance blends? I know yesterday a few runs of the GFS had a little blip of snow in the GSP area....perhaps it was just picking that up? I was wondering the same thing.

Probably.

But IMHO I don't really think there is much of a chance so that's why I replied with "hype" because someone at TWC created that map for the broadcast team to actually talk about when I think you would not broadcast that since it's highly unlikely. Just my 2 cents. :)

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