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Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

LOL .6" for CLT? No way that is happening..... I'm just hoping for a flake or two to fall sometime in the next 48 hours.

Looking at the map I thought the same thing...but then I realized they have both the .6 and Charlotte just close together. I think it's saying in the blue is .6 and the placement of Charlotte as a reference on the map is just badly placed.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Exactly. These areas will be absolutely paralyzed due to the snow. And damage will be pretty severe. Unlike the mid atlantic area, they not only will have extreme winds, they will have very heavy wet snow..and a crap load of it...which will only increase down trees and power lines left and right. This is a very dangerous and extreme situation in the higher elevations but when you turn on the tv, it's all about the coastal and piedmont areas.

I'm always highly critical of the media, as everyone knows, but I don't blame them for focusing on these areas to be honest because this storm is likely to be very bad, especially coastal areas with the storm surge..which could really do some damage around long island/newyork. The huge wind field combined with the extra tropical transition will mean the highest winds will not possibly be near the center. And given the track, the storm surge will be really bad in the above mentioned areas to be sure.

However, the snow/wind part of it in the mountains will be crippling to most from at least northern western nc to wv. I know not a lot of people live there but with the lack of national media attention, I hope those there will understand how bad it will be.

The other thing to think of to for highly populated sections of New Jersey, these people are not used to anything like this. Loss of life I'm afraid will be higher than it should be because even with the hype of the media many will think it's just media hype. Katrina is a good example of the psychology of people when there is a major threat to loss of life and cognitive dissonance that kicks in ("that won't happen to me"). I'll be very interested to see how much damage the storm surge does when it comes ashore.

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Stormsfury

Stormsfury

Posted
Posted

good grief, I wish I was in the nc mountains. sad.pngsad.png

Just a remarkable storm and to me the snow part of it is being under reported. Some parts of WV are expecting 3 feet plus of snow with blizzard warnings...because of winds of 60mph or more. Just insane. I'm so jealous of all the places getting this type of wild weather while all that can be expected here is windy conditions.

and to me it's amazing that a 85mph storm has a 946mb pressure....which of course we have seen cat 3 and cat 4's with that pressure..not to mention the little bit of convection near the center...and it's expected to strengthen. If pressures decrease that will only worsen the storm surge...as we all know the lower the pressure the more the ocean under and around the center increases/builds a bulge.

Just as a reference to the bold. Hurricane Sandy is only 2 mb higher than Hurricane Hugo at time of landfall near Charleston, SC back in 1989 (944mb) and just from a memory standpoint, remember a small compact but powerful Hurricane Iris in 2001?

From Oct 2001

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120

KM...SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

IRIS IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. ON

THE PROJECTED TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE

COAST OF BELIZE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...235 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO

LANDFALL...BUT IRIS IS LIKELY TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR

HURRICANE. HIGHER WINDS MAY OCCUR OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN AS IRIS

MOVES INLAND.

IRIS REMAINS A VERY SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL

STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

Hurricane Iris was 8 mb HIGHER than Sandy. The normalized one size fits all wind/pressure relation doesn't always fit and from Sandy's expansive wind field is just simply surreal. I think 175 miles out with hurricane force winds, and 725 miles with tropical storm force winds. as of this post, Sandy appears to be developing an eye visible on both IR and VIS satellite imagery as well.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Can anyone tell me why QPF amounts are higher on the GFS than the NAM? Perhaps it happens on occasion, but I know the NAM is the one that usually spits out hefty amounts and the GFS is usually about 1/2 the amounts of the NAM. I wonder why the reversal for this storm? Have they tweaked either, or both models since last winter?

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

Exactly. These areas will be absolutely paralyzed due to the snow. And damage will be pretty severe. Unlike the mid atlantic area, they not only will have extreme winds, they will have very heavy wet snow..and a crap load of it...which will only increase down trees and power lines left and right. This is a very dangerous and extreme situation in the higher elevations but when you turn on the tv, it's all about the coastal and piedmont areas.

I'm always highly critical of the media, as everyone knows, but I don't blame them for focusing on these areas to be honest because this storm is likely to be very bad, especially coastal areas with the storm surge..which could really do some damage around long island/newyork. The huge wind field combined with the extra tropical transition will mean the highest winds will not possibly be near the center. And given the track, the storm surge will be really bad in the above mentioned areas to be sure.

However, the snow/wind part of it in the mountains will be crippling to most from at least northern western nc to wv. I know not a lot of people live there but with the lack of national media attention, I hope those there will understand how bad it will be.

Mountain folk just take care of themselves and their neighbors and get on with it. I taught several years in SW VA back in the 70s including the great winters of 76, 77. There was only one stoplight in the entire county. 35 years later there is still only one stoplight in the entire county. Great place by the way. Nothing bothered those folks. School buses couldn't make it home? Plenty of 4WD trucks showed up by magic and got everyone safely home. Road blocked by a fallen tree? No problem most carried chain saws. Everyone just quietly did what they needed to do to cope.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Crazy that a cat 1 storm is doing this much damage. There is already flooding in Atlantic City and Sandy is still 250 miles away. The Ocean City Pier has been destoryed. The Avalon Pier in Kill Devil Hills has been cut in half. The big story with this is the massive size and the storm surge. Yet, some folks are still taking this lightly because it is "only a cat 1."

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Mountain folk just take care of themselves and their neighbors and get on with it. I taught several years in SW VA back in the 70s including the great winters of 76, 77. There was only one stoplight in the entire county. 35 years later there is still only one stoplight in the entire county. Great place by the way. Nothing bothered those folks. School buses couldn't make it home? Plenty of 4WD trucks showed up by magic and got everyone safely home. Road blocked by a fallen tree? No problem most carried chain saws. Everyone just quietly did what they needed to do to cope.

I know they are used to being hit hard with winter storms but they can't control power outages, which could (likely) be widespread. And with so many people expected to lose power on the east coast, it will probably be a slow process to restore it. I'm sure many have generators but crippling power outages will still cause big problems.

Despite their toughness, if you add 2 or 3 feet of heavy wet snow, they still won't be able to move around very much for a while.

It's not the huge story to me though and as you pointed out they are used to big storms but I expect the power outages to be the big one. Maybe I'll be wrong, I hope I am.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

I know they are used to being hit hard with winter storms but they can't control power outages, which could (likely) be widespread. And with so many people expected to lose power on the east coast, it will probably be a slow process to restore it. I'm sure many have generators but crippling power outages will still cause big problems.

Despite their toughness, if you add 2 or 3 feet of heavy wet snow, they still won't be able to move around very much for a while.

It's not the huge story to me though and as you pointed out they are used to big storms but I expect the power outages to be the big one. Maybe I'll be wrong, I hope I am.

The new folks will be more affected. The real mountain folks pretty much all have another heat source. Usually a good ole wood stove that can drive you out of the house if you run it wide open. Pantry full of home made food from the garden that they "put up" earlier this fall. I always found it interesting how they would quietly take in stride events that would bring any major city to its knees. I have a lot of respect for the bib overalled, bearded, bacca spitting, long term mountain folk. Quiet strength is real strength.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

I would say flash freeze...but look at those winds...hmmmm...maybe a slush?

Monday Night

Overcast with rain, then a chance of snow and a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 32F with a windchill as low as 23F. Windy. Winds from the WNW at 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of precipitation 60% .

chancerain.gif

Tuesday

Overcast with snow showers and rain showers, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. High of 52F. Windy. Winds from the West at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation 70% .

» ZIP Code Detail nt_chancerain.gif

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and a chance of rain, then a chance of snow and a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 36F. Breezy. Winds from the WNW at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of snow 30%.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Can anyone tell me why QPF amounts are higher on the GFS than the NAM? Perhaps it happens on occasion, but I know the NAM is the one that usually spits out hefty amounts and the GFS is usually about 1/2 the amounts of the NAM. I wonder why the reversal for this storm? Have they tweaked either, or both models since last winter?

The one thing I would say is that the NAM is usually not as bold with the precip on the west / northwest side of storms...but to me, the GFS normally has the better itea with that. The NAM is probably showing higher totals (I haven't looked) were the 'gut' of the precip is located...i.e. coming in through Maryland.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

The one thing I would say is that the NAM is usually not as bold with the precip on the west / northwest side of storms...but to me, the GFS normally has the better itea with that. The NAM is probably showing higher totals (I haven't looked) were the 'gut' of the precip is located...i.e. coming in through Maryland.

Thanks for the response. I haven't noticed anyone talking about this in the past and haven't seen any papers speaking to it either in my research. All I know is that's a boatload of precip that's starting to move west and south of west. Most of the ensembles seem to take this a little south of the PA border which would only enhance the chances for heavier precip further south. This may be one where the mets and guys/gals at the NWS are playing catchup by the hour when and if we get a changeover to snow here at KTRI.

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1234snow

1234snow

Posted
Posted

Accum map from Morristown:

post-6441-0-45384400-1351522796_thumb.jp

A RARE EARLY SEASON WINTER WEATHER STORM IS BEGINNING TO COME

TOGETHER ACROSS THE EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS

THIS MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING UPPER-LOW HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD OVER THE

REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH LANDFALLING HURRICANE SANDY

LATER TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LIGHT

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST

TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...GENERALLY HUGGING THE HIGHER

TERRAIN...WHERE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 2500-3000 FT ARE AT OR BELOW

FREEZING AND HAVE BEEN RECEIVING LIGHT TO MODERATE BURSTS OF

SNOWFALL SINCE LATE YESTERDAY EVENING. INCREDIBLY...BEFORE THE DEEP

MOISTURE FROM SANDY HAS EVEN ARRIVED...WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF

4-5 INCHES OF SNOW AT NEWFOUND GAP IN GSMNP AND AT HIGH KNOB IN

WISE COUNTY VA AS OF 10 AM EDT. WHILE THESE AMOUNTS ARE VERY

LOCALIZED AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IT POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR

EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS THAN EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS

EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN THE DEEP MOISTURE FINALLY DOES ARRIVE.

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Blue Ridge

Blue Ridge

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the response. I haven't noticed anyone talking about this in the past and haven't seen any papers speaking to it either in my research. All I know is that's a boatload of precip that's starting to move west and south of west. Most of the ensembles seem to take this a little south of the PA border which would only enhance the chances for heavier precip further south. This may be one where the mets and guys/gals at the NWS are playing catchup by the hour when and if we get a changeover to snow here at KTRI.

The temperature issue reminds me of the Dec 18-19, 2009 snowstorm. In the early-going, temperatures remained above freezing by a few degrees across the area as rain fell, while the higher elevations gained the early snowfall lead. Once the heaviest precipitation arrived, the entire area changed over, and we witnessed one of the Tri-Cities' most damaging snowfalls of the 2000s.

Of course, to compare Sandy with anything is to compare apples with a genetically-modified mutant orange.

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