Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

[deltadog03]

MOS is probably going to be too warm anyway, since this is def. against the norm. I think TRI could see 4-8" of snow

[Pilotwx]

Nothing yet, concerned that we might see some extreme winds tomorrow especially if we get some DS winds coming off the mountains along with any sun that might break through. Not that i'm calling for it but our cloud deck could dry up if the DS is strong enough and the winds will then just go crazy! Just some thoughts on what if's for our area

What's up Jason any flurries for pilot? It's finally starting to cool off here, but a long ways to go to even think about a flurry.. still sitting at 50... lol

[griteater]

MOS is probably going to be too warm anyway, since this is def. against the norm. I think TRI could see 4-8" of snow

Thanks for the feedback Delta. How does MOS incorporate climo? Does it incorporate it little by little as you go out in time (with least amount of climo baked into the initial 24 hrs or so)?

[JQPublic]

Looks like rdu won't get out of the 40s on Tuesday. Pretty impressive!

[deltadog03]

Thanks for the feedback Delta. How does MOS incorporate climo? Does it incorporate it little by little as you go out in time (with least amount of climo baked into the initial 24 hrs or so)?

It does incorporate it little by little, with the short-term not as much climo in it as the longer range. I really like to use the the "raw" numbers in stuff like this since, its so against the norm/climo. I really think yall see 4-8" up there. KTRI

[AirNelson39]

Cars turning white

Where exactly are you located? I'm near the Walmart in Boone

[AirNelson39]

Snow has begun in Boone

[WilkesboroDude]

Snowing at Appalachian State University.

[CAD Addict]

Where exactly are you located? I'm near the Walmart in Boone

105 bypass toward 421

[chapelhillwx]

Snowing at Appalachian State University.

My friend just went to look and said the same thing after I bugged him.

[griteater]

Latest Canadian loop also supports changeover at TRI tomorrow evening, with some decent squalls at times - http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Going to be some wild stories coming out of W Virginia...I hope they are ready.

[POWERSTROKE]

Pretty good gusts here

[Met1985]

Latest Canadian loop also supports changeover at TRI tomorrow evening, with some decent squalls at times - http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

Going to be some wild stories coming out of W Virginia...I hope they are ready.

Ya I think so to. 1-3 feet possible. I am wondering with the winds and the chance at significant snowfall if some of the higher elevations in TN/NC are not issued Blizzard warning come tomorrow into Tuesday.

[oconeexman]

King st. In Boone!

http://www.resortcams.com/webcameras-king-street-boone.php

[WilkesboroDude]

43 over 34....mist driven rain...not sure if the reports of a mix are reliable or not nearby...I'm a believer when I see it. And it's too dark and cold out.

A lot of posters may be losing power tomorrow and unable to report. Just saw a report from Mount Mitchell with white out conditions and 4 inches of snow.

[eyewall]

Heavy snow falling on Beech Mountain. At 10:15pm they had a half inch on cars and grassy surfaces. Rangers are reporting 4 inches at Mount Mitchell already with white out conditions.

A report I saw from Burke Wx.

[nchighcountrywx]

This is from the 11pm National Hurricane Center Advisory.

Certainly a rare several time in a lifetime event in a hurricane advisory!

SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE

MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN

THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...

WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE

NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN

MARYLAND.

[POWERSTROKE]

Time for a snow chase

[HKY_WX]

GFS and co continuing to slowly trend south, now almost to delaware. Will have to watch this WSW bend. Could be interesting and would bring some pretty high winds to the area if this thing were to continue trending in our direction or hook WSW after landfall. The MTNS are going to get raked, regardless.

[WilkesboroDude]

[WeatherNC]

Off to bed, RN shield departed here around noon, now a +mist removed on the eastern flank of some banding starting to show up extending well into central NC, almost down to ILM. Later

[HKY18]

Chasing to beckley, will be leaving tomorrow. Probably gonna be crazy

[downeastnc]

GFS and co continuing to slowly trend south, now almost to delaware. Will have to watch this WSW bend. Could be interesting and would bring some pretty high winds to the area if this thing were to continue trending in our direction or hook WSW after landfall. The MTNS are going to get raked, regardless.

It does seem to have slowed quite a bit, a stall now would cause the weenies in SNE to explode, Wind really isnt that impressive on the buoys offshore for the amount of hype going on, still should be epic for the shear size of the windfield.

[AirNelson39]

Snow really coming down in Boone and wind is really whipping. Let the whiteout begin

[jrips27]

Very raw day here. Cold and windy.

I'd say we are still getting gusts well into the 30+ range.

[nchighcountrywx]

Updated GSP Forecast Snow Accumulation Totals

[nchighcountrywx]

5:20am Observations

[ncjoaquin]

My favorite part of the GSP AFD:

THE SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS AT THE KAVL AIRPORT HAVE NEARLY 4

INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE EVENT. THIS IS OFTEN A RELIABLE SNOWFALL

TOOL. OF COURSE 4 INCHES AT THE AIRPORT WOULD TRANSLATE INTO EVEN

MORE TOWARD ASHEVILLE PROPER AND UP INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR NOW

I/M LOWER THAN THIS AS I/M A LITTLE SKEPTICAL ABOUT A NW FLOW EVENT

DRIVING HEAVY SNOW THAT FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THIS IS ANYTHING BUT A

NORMAL SITUATION. THEREFORE...I/M PUTTING BUNCOMBE COUNTY IN THE

WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS IS VALID AS I DO HAVE 4 TO 6 INCH TOTALS

OVER THE NRN PARTS OF THE COUNTY. OTHERWISE THE SNOW TOTALS HAVEN/T

CHANGED MUCH WITH THIS PACKAGE.

[WeatherNC]

Hearing reports of 941mb last pass, down from 946. LWX radar is just insane over the Ches Bay. Hell, even I am under a deform axis this am!

[Met1985]

Hearing reports of 941mb last pass, down from 946. LWX radar is just insane over the Ches Bay. Hell, even I am under a deform axis this am!

Wow crazy. This system has not even hit and I am very impressed with how it is getting together so quick.