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Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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griteater

griteater

Posted
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It's Robert against the NWS out of Morristown. Robert is bullish on snow down to the valleys in northeast TN while the NWS says it's a non-event relative to what could happen. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I have noticed the trajectory of the precip on radar has changed in the last couple of hours and is beginning to turn northwest.

A few thoughts on Tri-Cities....I looked at NAM and GFS sounding data. In my experience, the GFS is normally a little too warm, and the NAM is a little too cool. In this case, the GFS is colder than the NAM (as of now). I'd say that's a good sign to have the GFS on your side from a temp standpoint. It looks like to me that the 18z NAM supports around 0.30 QPF of snow, while the 18z GFS supports around 0.90 QPF of snow. I like to cut QPF by 40-50% as it seems it never precips as much as the model QPF. The precip transitions over to snow Mon night, which is much preferred from an accumulation standpoint (better to get the ground covered at night vs. daytime). The saturation in the snow growth zone looks fine, although the max vertical motion isn't very strong...to be expected given the locale in the overall system. As long as the models continue to depict the low pivoting into south central / SW PA, I like the idea of accumulating snow in KTRI, say 2-5 inches.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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related to Sandy??? impressive if so. i didnt figure the windfield would stretch that far sw and inland.

Yep. Its very windy in atlanta and has been all day. It has picked up a bit over the last few hours. It has become a steady wind tonight I'm not convinced we are getting 40mph gusts but its windy.

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Tyler Penland

Tyler Penland

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Yep. Its very windy in atlanta and has been all day. It has picked up a bit over the last few hours. It has become a steady wind tonight I'm not convinced we are getting 40mph gusts but its windy.

Holy cow thought we were gonna blow away a few minutes ago. Strongest gust of the night here in Cleveland.

Fully expecting to lose some trees tomorrow.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

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A few thoughts on Tri-Cities....I looked at NAM and GFS sounding data. In my experience, the GFS is normally a little too warm, and the NAM is a little too cool. In this case, the GFS is colder than the NAM (as of now). I'd say that's a good sign to have the GFS on your side from a temp standpoint. It looks like to me that the 18z NAM supports around 0.30 QPF of snow, while the 18z GFS supports around 0.90 QPF of snow. I like to cut QPF by 40-50% as it seems it never precips as much as the model QPF. The precip transitions over to snow Mon night, which is much preferred from an accumulation standpoint (better to get the ground covered at night vs. daytime). The saturation in the snow growth zone looks fine, although the max vertical motion isn't very strong...to be expected given the locale in the overall system. As long as the models continue to depict the low pivoting into south central / SW PA, I like the idea of accumulating snow in KTRI, say 2-5 inches.

Thanks for the KTRI love Griteater. I mostly agree with what you have said here, but I have to wonder about QPF. Occasionally, systems will overperform. I could easily see overperformance within a band (wherever that sets up), IF the system sits and spins itself out. It's hard to tell where exactly that might occur, but I would expect a once every 100-200 year type storm could spit out a few surprises along the way. Other than this, I have been thinking a general 2-4..........3-5 type event in northeast TN (valley locations) is becoming more likely.

I guess in a nutshell I agree with you, but wonder if Mother Nature is going to throw a curve or two over the coming few days?

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Joe75

Joe75

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IDK if its been posted yet or not, but comfirmed by family members in Foscoe of the NC MTNs snow is starting to fall. They have had sleet showers off and on the last couple hrs and now has changed over to snow.

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griteater

griteater

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Thanks for the KTRI love Griteater. I mostly agree with what you have said here, but I have to wonder about QPF. Occasionally, systems will overperform. I could easily see overperformance within a band (wherever that sets up), IF the system sits and spins itself out. It's hard to tell where exactly that might occur, but I would expect a once every 100-200 year type storm could spit out a few surprises along the way. Other than this, I have been thinking a general 2-4..........3-5 type event in northeast TN (valley locations) is becoming more likely.

I guess in a nutshell I agree with you, but wonder if Mother Nature is going to throw a curve or two over the coming few days?

Was reading the Charleston, WV disco, and they mentioned MOS was keeping the boundary layer too warm for low elevation snow...I checked NAM and GFS MOS for Bristol, and indeed the sfc temps are in the mid-30 to low-40 range for overnight Mon and Tues. Not sure of the MOS bias at this timerange, but that would be a deal breaker obviously if it's correct. I wonder if that's what Morristown is banking on.

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