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Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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CLTwx

CLTwx

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A post by Dr Masters just a bit ago...pretty amazing:

referencing Sandy

"

However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was record high: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew"

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2279

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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36.5 now. Snow level seems to be around 4,000 feet right now.

Your going to get to crushed CAD, by winter standards, late Oct, wildcard, but would be surprised by the initial reports, if the dendrites have not made it down to 3000 by morning. Blacksburg, Knoxville, Greenville, and Morristown will be playing ketchup for the higher terrain, watch, areas of WV could eclipse 50", one has to imagine there will be sig spill-over into SW VA, NE TN, NW NC, and extreme E KY. Sig = 1'+

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

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WGHP talking about snowflakes in Triad on Tuesday

253154_490712494295133_1148193400_n.png

Van Denton FOX8 WGHP TV

Snowflakes still POSSIBLE in the Piedmont-Triad late Monday night into Tuesday. Complicated storm and there is a lot of detail in my post below.

While that is happening, it will transition from a Tropical system to a cold core system and the air aloft will be getting very cold. This is already leading to snow in the highest mountains and we will see this continue to spread out and lower in elevation as the colder air pours in. As of this writing, the snow levels have already lowered to near 5000 feet in the northern mountains of NC where snow is now falling at Beech Mtn and Sugar. By Wednesday, snowfall totals may reach 3 feet in parts of West Virginia (most in the highest elevations), 1-2 feet above 5000 feet in Virginia and 12-18 inches in the higher mountains of NC. The lower mountain areas below 3000 feet will likely see a few inches mainly at night when the air is coldest, then may mix with rain or change to rain during the day based on elevation.

I am still noticing the possibility for some wrap around moisture to return to the Piedmont on Monday night and Tuesday. This doesn’t often do much east of the mountains and we have never recorded October snowfall in the Piedmont-Triad since records began in 1928. But again, this is an unusual storm.

It appears that IF we get the moisture to indeed wrap around into our area on Monday night into Tuesday, the upper levels will be plenty cold for snow, however the surface will be marginal. When this happens, it usually plays out that we get all liquid if precip is light and it mixes with or changes to snow if the intensity is heavy enough. It appears the snow will certainly make it to about 1500 feet above the ground level over the Piedmont, and if it picks up in intensity, that could easily reach down to near the surface. Either way, the ground and near ground temperatures should be warm enough that we would have no trouble from it here.

There are no guarantees we get the wrap around precipitation either. With a low to the north, this wrap around is precip that moves from NW to SE. This means the air sinks off the mountains as it heads our way. This sinking motion dries the air out and that is why we often miss out when storms are to our north and get our snows more often when they come from the south.

The attached image is a grab from the snowfall outlook issued by HPC ( Hydrometeorological prediction center ). It shows the odds for snowfall of at least 1” or more. Notice our northern counties have a 10-20% chance. Mountains nearly 100%. The odds for measurable snow south of the Triad drop to less than 5%. Still, the odds for a few flakes, is higher for all.

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1234snow

1234snow

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Astounded at the lack of lower elevation advisories in the northern TN Valley. Yeah, it may not happen. But....it may also thump us.

It seems like the cold air is filtering in faster than expected since higher areas are changing over. I think Morristown has to issue advisories for most of NE TN. I guess they are just waiting until the very last minute too issue them.

850 mb temps:

post-6441-0-86356400-1351466326_thumb.gi

Temp is currently 40 here.

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POWERSTROKE

POWERSTROKE

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253154_490712494295133_1148193400_n.png

Van Denton FOX8 WGHP TV

Snowflakes still POSSIBLE in the Piedmont-Triad late Monday night into Tuesday. Complicated storm and there is a lot of detail in my post below.

While that is happening, it will transition from a Tropical system to a cold core system and the air aloft will be getting very cold. This is already leading to snow in the highest mountains and we will see this continue to spread out and lower in elevation as the colder air pours in. As of this writing, the snow levels have already lowered to near 5000 feet in the northern mountains of NC where snow is now falling at Beech Mtn and Sugar. By Wednesday, snowfall totals may reach 3 feet in parts of West Virginia (most in the highest elevations), 1-2 feet above 5000 feet in Virginia and 12-18 inches in the higher mountains of NC. The lower mountain areas below 3000 feet will likely see a few inches mainly at night when the air is coldest, then may mix with rain or change to rain during the day based on elevation.

I am still noticing the possibility for some wrap around moisture to return to the Piedmont on Monday night and Tuesday. This doesn’t often do much east of the mountains and we have never recorded October snowfall in the Piedmont-Triad since records began in 1928. But again, this is an unusual storm.

It appears that IF we get the moisture to indeed wrap around into our area on Monday night into Tuesday, the upper levels will be plenty cold for snow, however the surface will be marginal. When this happens, it usually plays out that we get all liquid if precip is light and it mixes with or changes to snow if the intensity is heavy enough. It appears the snow will certainly make it to about 1500 feet above the ground level over the Piedmont, and if it picks up in intensity, that could easily reach down to near the surface. Either way, the ground and near ground temperatures should be warm enough that we would have no trouble from it here.

There are no guarantees we get the wrap around precipitation either. With a low to the north, this wrap around is precip that moves from NW to SE. This means the air sinks off the mountains as it heads our way. This sinking motion dries the air out and that is why we often miss out when storms are to our north and get our snows more often when they come from the south.

The attached image is a grab from the snowfall outlook issued by HPC ( Hydrometeorological prediction center ). It shows the odds for snowfall of at least 1” or more. Notice our northern counties have a 10-20% chance. Mountains nearly 100%. The odds for measurable snow south of the Triad drop to less than 5%. Still, the odds for a few flakes, is higher for all.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Astounded at the lack of lower elevation advisories in the northern TN Valley. Yeah, it may not happen. But....it may also thump us.

It's Robert against the NWS out of Morristown. Robert is bullish on snow down to the valleys in northeast TN while the NWS says it's a non-event relative to what could happen. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I have noticed the trajectory of the precip on radar has changed in the last couple of hours and is beginning to turn northwest.

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