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Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

Thrill seeking on remote areas in the Avery County area above 5000' is highly discouraged in places accessable off the BRP, Roan Mountain, Mount Mitchell etc.

If you want to rent a ski lodge on Beech Mountain, that is a more sensable alternative, but even there, you are own your own in power outages.

Also keep in mind, being the first storm of the season there is no salt or slag on the roads.

Safety first!

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

I don't subscribe to Robert, but do follow all of the tidbits he posts publicly. I, too, would love to see his reasoning behind his forecast for the Tri-Cities. I do believe MRX is underestimating the possibility of accumulating snow in the immediate Tri-Cities. 2"-4" sounds reasonable, with 6"-12"+ in the higher elevations.

Robert has been very accurate in past NW flow events, though, so I cannot dismiss his opinion. This is an unprecedented event causing atmospheric conditions to behave opposite of "climo." I believe this, combined with the concept of such an intense snowfall event so early in the season, had led to sensory overload for many of us.

Edit: MRX is sticking to its guns in the latest update via Facebook:

Again, I feel this is strongly conservative, given the amount of moisture available and the cold air rushing in.

MRX usually does a very good job. A lot of times it isn't what I want to hear as a snow lover, but they do a fantastic job. I would side with them and the realist in me knows snow is a challenge in northeast TN in Jan and Feb, much less October. I guess we will just have to see if the storm of the century has a few tricks up its sleeve. I can see a foot for the higher elevations of the northern mountains and points north through Virginia.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

I don't subscribe to Robert, but do follow all of the tidbits he posts publicly. I, too, would love to see his reasoning behind his forecast for the Tri-Cities. I do believe MRX is underestimating the possibility of accumulating snow in the immediate Tri-Cities. 2"-4" sounds reasonable, with 6"-12"+ in the higher elevations.

Robert has been very accurate in past NW flow events, though, so I cannot dismiss his opinion. This is an unprecedented event causing atmospheric conditions to behave opposite of "climo." I believe this, combined with the concept of such an intense snowfall event so early in the season, had led to sensory overload for many of us.

Edit: MRX is sticking to its guns in the latest update via Facebook:

Again, I feel this is strongly conservative, given the amount of moisture available and the cold air rushing in.

Saw that too. I am wondering if they have concerns about precip rates and availibility. Surface temps also seem to be an issue.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

GFS and EURO both bringing in warmer temps...resulting in elevation dependent snowfall with a more south track. But more moisture...maybe increase chance of cold rain in the foothills.

NWS Blacksburg

The latest GFS has come in with considerably warmer temperatures than with previous runs...and the European model (ecmwf) has warmed several degrees as

well.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

It's looking like we may not get much additional rain for this storm, if any. Both the 12z GFS and Euro are further north and develop less precip down this way. Just breezy and cool. Setting up for a great winter, I'm sure.

snowwindow.gif You can't fool anyone! wink.png

Look at how far the south trends have been...way SOUTH of New York City.

at201218_model.gif

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1234snow

1234snow

Posted
Posted

MRX usually does a very good job. A lot of times it isn't what I want to hear as a snow lover, but they do a fantastic job. I would side with them and the realist in me knows snow is a challenge in northeast TN in Jan and Feb, much less October. I guess we will just have to see if the storm of the century has a few tricks up its sleeve. I can see a foot for the higher elevations of the northern mountains and points north through Virginia.

Yeah your right, it can be very hard to get an accumulating snow in the lower areas in an elevation dependent event during the heart of winter. But I feel like higher areas of SWVA are going to get clobbered. Looks like the inverted trough has set up shop right now as it has been raining lightly for about an hour. Heck all I want to see is just snow in October, if it accumulates then that is icing on the cake.

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

snowwindow.gif You can't fool anyone! wink.png

Look at how far the south trends have been...way SOUTH of New York City.

at201218_model.gif

It's not the location at landfall, but what it does after. Now the models seem to want to have the storm head off NW and then N fairly quickly, whereas before they were proposing a loop and moving the storm down into MD or even northern VA before heading north again.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

It's not the location at landfall, but what it does after. Now the models seem to want to have the storm head off NW and then N fairly quickly, whereas before they were proposing a loop and moving the storm down into MD or even northern VA before heading north again.

Location of landfall is important when comparing a southern NJ landfall to a NYC landfall. What is does after is still questionable...could still trek into MD.

My QPF has been increased several tenths of an inch here east of the mountains.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Location of landfall is important when comparing a southern NJ landfall to a NYC landfall. What is does after is still questionable...could still trek into MD.

My QPF has been increased several tenths of an inch here east of the mountains.

Disagree, relative size and magnitude of wave/surge, a southern NJ center crossing would have greater impact on points north into the Lower Bay compared to a N NJ landfall. Folks are too worried about an exact point, hell, even the Chesapeake is under a hurricane force wind warning, which are blanketed all the way up to Cape Cod. Areas south of the landfalling point, east shores of the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays should eclipse most levels seen in generations. The Atlantic just off the eastern seaboard from SC - MA is whipped into a pretty good 25-30' frenzy, expect this to slowly build north of NC, plenty of 40' buoy obs tomorrow I am sure. Long duration fetch which just adds to the amplitude, ocean, bay, and inland water floor topography aside.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

Disagree, relative size and magnitude of wave/surge, a southern NJ center crossing would have greater impact on points north into the Lower Bay compared to a N NJ landfall. Folks are too worried about an exact point, hell, even the Chesapeake is under a hurricane force wind warning, which are blanketed all the way up to Cape Cod. Areas south of the landfalling point, east shores of the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays should eclipse most levels seen in generations. The Atlantic just off the eastern seaboard from SC - MA is whipped into a pretty good 25-30' frenzy, expect this to slowly build north of NC, plenty of 40' buoy obs tomorrow I am sure. Long duration fetch which just adds to the amplitude, ocean, bay, and inland water floor topography aside.

I was just referring to the increase in precip amounts in NC.

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

NC HighCountry Winter Storm Warning Hoisted:

0

WWUS42 KGSP 281936

WSWGSP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

336 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS

STARTING MONDAY...

.TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY WILL TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL

STORM AND MERGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG

NORTHWEST WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW

PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SNOWFALL TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

APPALACHIANS. SNOW WILL BEGIN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE THIS

EVENING AND THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND LOWER TO THE VALLEY

FLOORS THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO

TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SEVERAL

INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TENNESSEE LINE AND ACROSS

THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND HOW MUCH

FALLS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...WILL CONTINUE TO DEPEND ON THE EXACT

TRACK OF SANDY AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE.

NCZ033-049-050-290500-

/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0003.121029T1000Z-121031T1000Z/

/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0004.121029T0400Z-121031T1000Z/

AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE

336 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM

EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM

MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS

NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AS WELL AS PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY.

FALLING TEMPERATURES CAUSING TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS

TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY FALL TOWARD THE VALLEY FLOORS BY

DAYBREAK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH 8 TO

12 INCHES POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SLICK ROADS. THE WEIGHT OF HEAVY...WET SNOW AND

STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN

EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE SURE TO TAKE ALONG YOUR CELL

PHONE. WEAR A WARM COAT...GLOVES...AND BOOTS. KEEP A BLANKET...

FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN

EMERGENCY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS

CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

In afternoon GSP AFD:

KMRX DUAL POL

HYDROMETEOR DATA HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME WET SNOW GETTING DOWN

BELOW 6000 FT AGL...SO PTYPE SHOULD BE MIXING OVER TO SNOW ALONG THE

RIDGETOPS VERY SHORTLY.

GSP still expects warning criteria snow to be realized

I saw this comment earlier...this is going to be the first winter weather event for the offices that have recently installed the Dual-Pol radars. We shall see how this helps KMRX and KGSP in forecasting.

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Blue Ridge

Blue Ridge

Posted
Posted

MRX follows suit:

...STRONG STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA... ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM

MOVING IN MONDAY EVENING...

.COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

AS HURRICANE SANDY MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE STRONG

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER PENNSYLVANIA BEFORE FINALLY

LIFTING NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS STORM ARE FORECAST TO PUSH

AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...AND

THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN SNOW IS

EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY MONDAY

EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND

ENDING.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY ELEVATION DEPENDENT

WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MINOR OR NO ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST VALLEY

LOCATIONS...AND HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER

TERRAIN.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM

EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT

TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.

* EVENT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE

MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET.

* TIMING...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT

OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS ARE

EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY

NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SOME OF THE SNOW MAY BE A HEAVY WET SNOW. THE WEIGHT FROM

THIS WET SNOWFALL MAY DOWN SOME TREES AND POWER LINES...CAUSING

POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO THE SNOW AND

ICE COVERED ROADWAYS. STRONG WINDS WITH HEAVY SNOW MAY CAUSE

LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AT

TIMES.

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Here is part of the afternoon AFD from GSP (note long post mods feel free to edit or delete)

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 300 PM EDT...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED ON THE WATER

VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE NC MTNS. KMRX/KGSP RADAR RETURNS

HAVE RESPONDED WITH BLOSSOMING SHOWER COVERAGE. KMRX DUAL POL

HYDROMETEOR DATA HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME WET SNOW GETTING DOWN

BELOW 6000 FT AGL...SO PTYPE SHOULD BE MIXING OVER TO SNOW ALONG THE

RIDGETOPS VERY SHORTLY. DPVA WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE

AREA THIS EVENING...BUT NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL START RATCHETING

UP...SO THAT WRN MTN PRECIP COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE.

MEANWHILE...SANDY CONTINUES MOVING UP THE EAST COAST AND IS STILL

EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE MID LATITUDE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF NEAR THE

APPALACHIANS. ADDITIONAL CHANNELED VORT ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN THE NW

FLOW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH DEEP LAYER QG FORCING PERSISTING

OVER OVER MUCH OF THE WRN CAROLINAS. THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON

THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS HYBRID LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GET GOING IN

EARNEST TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RAPIDLY TIGHTEN. 850 MB

TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TO MINUS 4...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TOWARD THE

MTN VALLEY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN ADDITION...THE BEST CORE OF 50 TO

60 KT 850 MB WINDS WILL SET UP MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THE

NRN MTNS SOUTHWEST TOWARD NE GA. A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE ISSUED

FOR ALL NC MTNS EXCEPT FOR GRAHAM...AND ALSO FOR RABUN COUNTY GA.

WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE POSTED FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH AND EAST

OF THE WATCH.

THE INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE NW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW

PRECIP RATES TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. CONSENSUS

PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 9 TO 1 THROUGH THE

NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE QPF FORECAST

SOMEWHAT...AND THE CURRENT TRACK OF SANDY IS FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHTLY

MORE MOISTURE WRAPPING DOWN THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WE SHOULD ACHIEVE

WARNING CRITERIA FROM SWAIN NWD IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z TUE...WITH

SNOW ACCUMS CONTINUING WELL INTO TUE. A SMALL AREA OF WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY WILL BE FEATURED OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING FROM THE ASHEVILLE

AREA...GRAHAM COUNTY...AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...AT 00Z TUESDAY SANDY SHOULD BE MAKING LANDFALL

AROUND NEW JERSEY AROUND THAT TIME AND MOVING WEST AROUND MARYLAND

THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD BE OUR TIME OF GREATER UPSLOPE

SNOWFALL ALONG THE NC / TN BORDER AREA. THE LOW WILL THEN BE MOVING

SLOWLY NORTH LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THE UPSLOPE SNOW WILL

GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ALL THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON

THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND THEN ITS RESULTING POWERFUL OVER LAND

LOW. CAA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS WAY DOWN AND HAVE

DECIDED TO CONTINUE KEEPING FORECAST TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HIGH WIND

GUSTS WILL BE A FACTOR IN BRINGING DOWN TREES COMBINED WITH THE

AFFECTS OF SNOW ON LEAVES THAT HAVE NOT FALLEN YET. MOST OF THE

MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE WAY UNDERDOING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND

SPEEDS. LOOKING AT BUFKIT WHICH SEEMS MUCH BETTER WITH THE PRESSURE

GRADIENT. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT

AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS.

THE LOW WILL BE CROSSING NEW YORK STATE WEDNESDAY AND BY THE END OF

THE DAY ALL PRECIP WILL BE ENDING IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS. MOST

TOTAL SNOWFALL OF COURSE WILL BE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN

MOUNTAINS.

SHORT DISCUSSION DUE TO RUNNING BEHIND.

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

Afternoon grids have gusts over 100mph for Grandfather Mountain:

..THE FORECAST FOR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN NC AT 5946 FT...

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT

WEDNESDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT

WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY

UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 45 MPH AFTER

MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 73 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS.

.MONDAY...CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH

THE DAY. IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 45 TO 50 MPH...INCREASING TO 50 TO 55 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

GUSTS UP TO 87 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE

ZERO.

.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN

THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 55 TO 60 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 101 MPH.

WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 55 TO 60 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

GUSTS UP TO 101 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 10 ABOVE.

DETAILED FORECAST DATA...

DATE MON 10/29/12 TUE 10/30/12

TIME (EDT) 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20

TEMP (F) 33 31 29 27 26 27 28 28 27 28 28 28 28 29 29 30 30

WIND DIR NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W NW

WIND SPD (MPH) 31 36 42 46 47 49 52 51 51 54 60 62 60 55 51 50 48

WIND GUST (MPH) 50 59 69 72 72 78 87 83 86 89 101 101 101 92 83 82 79

WIND CHL (F) 19 15 11 8 6 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 9 10 11 12

PROB PRECIP (%) 70 70 73 77 80 83 86 89 90 89 87 90 89 90 78 77 75

PROB THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

CLD HGT (100FT) 4 35 30 30 25 8 0

&&

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RAH does mention the snow word in their afternoon package. They do downplay any snow in central NC but it looks like they are keeping their eyes on the possibilities:

MODELS STILL INDICATE COLD AIR ALOFT MAXIMIZING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY

NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE SUBCLOUD LAYER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS

EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. EVEN THOUGH PARTIAL THICKNESSES

INDICATE A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX INTO PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHERN PIEDMONT... IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANY OF THE SNOW

FLAKES TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE (BELOW 1500 FEET AGL) DUE TO THE

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN THE 40S. THIS IS ESSENTIALLY A MUTE POINT

REGARDLESS... AS GROUND TEMPS ARE STILL WAY TOO WARM TO ACCEPT

ACCUMULATIONS.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
  • Author
Posted

18z NAM @ 21hrs, crazy the big 3 to some extent, EC leading the way, sniffed this out in the 7-10 day range, one could not ask for better timing, even 12 hrs would have thrown it off significantly, two systems meet at just the perfect time, absolute exact moment to compound the wave rather than to interfere with it. As some have mentioned, the larger scale pieces lined up early on, typical of historic events, i.e. 93. Mega blocking, big dog jets in just the right position to enhance everything, crazy stuff!!!

post-382-0-29852900-1351455123_thumb.jpg

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

RAH does mention the snow word in their afternoon package. They do downplay any snow in central NC but it looks like they are keeping their eyes on the possibilities:

MODELS STILL INDICATE COLD AIR ALOFT MAXIMIZING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY

NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE SUBCLOUD LAYER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS

EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. EVEN THOUGH PARTIAL THICKNESSES

INDICATE A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX INTO PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHERN PIEDMONT... IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANY OF THE SNOW

FLAKES TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE (BELOW 1500 FEET AGL) DUE TO THE

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN THE 40S. THIS IS ESSENTIALLY A MUTE POINT

REGARDLESS... AS GROUND TEMPS ARE STILL WAY TOO WARM TO ACCEPT

ACCUMULATIONS.

Man, they said "MUTE POINT". Gears have been ground!

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