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Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

In looking at the radar you can see what looks like an inverted trough presence running from east TN and points north. Maybe a met can comment, but I would think this area may give a hint as to where the heaviest precip bands may set up in the coming days.

The only question in my mind is what does that mean for the lower elevations of northeast TN. I can see a way this is elevation dependent, but I can also see the potential for an accumulating snow for KTRI too. I guess it depends on the extent of westerly and wsw movement before stalling and the precip shield presentation as it sets up.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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In looking at the radar you can see what looks like an inverted trough presence running from east TN and points north. Maybe a met can comment, but I would think this area may give a hint as to where the heaviest precip bands may set up in the coming days.

The only question in my mind is what does that mean for the lower elevations of northeast TN. I can see a way this is elevation dependent, but I can also see the potential for an accumulating snow for KTRI too. I guess it depends on the extent of westerly and wsw movement before stalling and the precip shield presentation as it sets up.

On Facebook, WxSouth made a specific comment about KTRI - aka Foothills. Made a quick mention of surface temps and amounts. The NAM gives me a little pause. GFS at 12z went crazy.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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Over-wash and flooding from Hurricane Sandy has closed N.C. 12 in Dare County from south of the Oregon Inlet bridge to Rodanthe.

There are also reports of over-wash on N.C. 12 in Kill Devil Hills and Kitty Hawk and flooding in Rodanthe.

Additional over-wash has been reported at areas further south. In Hatteras, over-wash has been reported at Buxton and north of Hatteras Village. Flooding has also been reported at the village of Ocracoke.

http://www.witn.com/home/headlines/Flooding-Closes-Part-Of-NC-12-176164151.html

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valkhorn

valkhorn

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Judging by some of the models the high elevations of the Smokys could see some heavy snow and very strong winds. I think one forecaster mentioned 1-2 feet possible with temps in the 20s on Tuesday, and winds over 50mph sustained. I thought about heading up there Tuesday until I saw the models and the forecasts. I'm not going up. There was another poster who thought about going to Leconte too early next week. I strongly suggest against it. That kind of weather is life threatening.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

On Facebook, WxSouth made a specific comment about KTRI - aka Foothills. Made a quick mention of surface temps and amounts. The NAM gives me a little pause. GFS at 12z went crazy.

I subscribe to him, and I think he does a great job of explaining. I haven't had time to look at the GFS or NAM at 12z yet. It will be interesting to see how this historic storm plays out. There is a large part of me that would love to make a road trip for this, but an even larger part that would love to be a part of it where I live.

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Blue Ridge

Blue Ridge

Posted
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I subscribe to him, and I think he does a great job of explaining. I haven't had time to look at the GFS or NAM at 12z yet. It will be interesting to see how this historic storm plays out. There is a large part of me that would love to make a road trip for this, but an even larger part that would love to be a part of it where I live.

Robert's advice: STAY PUT:

WxSouth ‏@WxSouth

Bigtime snowstorm coming to TriCities ne TNBristol Va and east Kentucky. Once in a lifetime October snowstorm, maybe 1 ft+. Sfc temps good.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
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Hmm should I drive to Boone? :)

I hate being surrounded by significant weather and getting almost nothing out of this. It would be a nice little treat to see some flakes in October in central NC. That alone would be extremely rare.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
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Looks like one the of the great October storms of a lifetime is under way. If it verifies, the models hit this from a long way out. Wow.

The Euro did an absolutely AMAZING job with this storm, or so it appears. It was as solid as a rock in forecasting it to come in from the east to west, even showing the wsw bend from many days out. The GFS was really all over the map with this, from way out to sea, to virtually every point north of NJ on any given run. Kudos to the Euro (and other models to lesser degrees) it would appear are in order.

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chapelhillwx

chapelhillwx

Posted
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Hmm should I drive to Boone? smile.png

I hate being surrounded by significant weather and getting almost nothing out of this. It would be a nice little treat to see some flakes in October in central NC. That alone would be extremely rare.

I'd do it; they look to get pretty well thumped up there.

To think I could've gone to Appalachian State this year...

(If you do see flakes in CH/Carrboro that would be awesome. I'm even further away from the action than that right now :( )

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AirNelson39

AirNelson39

Posted
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I'd do it; they look to get pretty well thumped up there.

To think I could've gone to Appalachian State this year...

(If you do see flakes in CH/Carrboro that would be awesome. I'm even further away from the action than that right now :( )

Sorry guys but I am at App State and wouldn't want to be anywhere else this winter...I'll try and keep y'all posted from the mountain

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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some flooding issues in SE VA currently from all the rn.

FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

110 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

NCC029-041-053-073-139-143-VAC093-199-550-650-700-710-735-740-800-

810-282300-

/O.NEW.KAKQ.FA.W.0007.121028T1710Z-121028T2300Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

CHOWAN NC-PASQUOTANK NC-GATES NC-PERQUIMANS NC-CITY OF NORFOLK VA-

CAMDEN NC-CITY OF SUFFOLK VA-CITY OF CHESAPEAKE VA-

CITY OF POQUOSON VA-YORK VA-CITY OF HAMPTON VA-CITY OF PORTSMOUTH VA-

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH VA-ISLE OF WIGHT VA-CURRITUCK NC-

CITY OF NEWPORT NEWS VA-

110 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...

CITY OF POQUOSON IN VIRGINIA

CAMDEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

CHOWAN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

CURRITUCK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

GATES COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

PASQUOTANK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

PERQUIMANS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

CITY OF CHESAPEAKE IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

CITY OF HAMPTON IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

CITY OF NEWPORT NEWS IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

CITY OF NORFOLK IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

CITY OF PORTSMOUTH IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

CITY OF SUFFOLK IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

YORK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

* AT 104 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE WARNING AREA. THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN

HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE BOWERS HILL...

FENTRESS...DOWNTOWN SUFFOLK...DOWNTOWN NORFOLK...FORT MONROE...

CARRSVILLE...FORT EUSTIS...BACK BAY...CAPE HENRY...KINGS FORK...

OCEAN VIEW...HAMPTON...LANGLEY AFB...NORTHAMPTON...SMITHFIELD...

WINDSOR...POQUOSON...NEWPORT NEWS...LYNNHAVEN...PRINCESS ANNE...

VIRGINIA BEACH...YORK TERRACE...EDENTON...BELVIDERE...HERTFORD...

ELIZABETH CITY...CORAPEAKE...GATES...GATESVILLE...CAMDEN...

COROLLA...CURRITUCK...AND MOYOCK.

Amounts hit or miss here in E NC, had a band setup just west of PGV overnight for storm total ~3" here, one can see why SE VA has the flood warning till 7pm

post-382-0-38209400-1351444775_thumb.jpg

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
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The Euro did an absolutely AMAZING job with this storm, or so it appears. It was as solid as a rock in forecasting it to come in from the east to west, even showing the wsw bend from many days out. The GFS was really all over the map with this, from way out to sea, to virtually every point north of NJ on any given run. Kudos to the Euro (and other models to lesser degrees) it would appear are in order.

Also, didn't the GGEM signal this pretty early? GFS would not have been one of the models I was referring too. Still, nice model consensus compared to some storms. I've been looking at this for like a week on here. Still hitting about the same place.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Also, didn't the GGEM signal this pretty early? GFS would not have been one of the models I was referring too. Still, nice model consensus compared to some storms. I've been looking at this for like a week on here. Still hitting about the same place.

Yes, the GGEM did a really nice job. It wavered some, but overall seems to have performed pretty well. There was one point even the NOGAPS joined the EURO and it was funny b/c that appeared to take credibility away from the EURO at that time....(a few days ago).

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Robert's advice: STAY PUT:

I think a lot of Robert, and enjoy his subscribed service. I do wonder though.............after looking at some of the 12z modeling, why he sees 1 foot + possible for ne Tennessee. I could see 3-4 (melting will undoubtedly occur), maybe a little more if the banding rotating in on the west side of our storm system sets up in a great place. Are there in house models that show more than what I can access??

I can see where the higher elevations of southwest VA could get hammered and maybe that's more the area he is referring to in his tweet for 1 foot +, but our specific area, Kingsport, Bristol, and JC don't typically do well in elevation dependent events. Maybe he will expand on his thinking as we get closer to the event. I would certainly like to hear what he has to say.

DT has his first call map out and it shows 6-11'' in all of NE Tennessee. I don't usually pay much attention to his maps though, as he really doesn't have the knowledge of our local area and terrain that some local mets have.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
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I think a lot of Robert, and enjoy his subscribed service. I do wonder though.............after looking at some of the 12z modeling, why he sees 1 foot + possible for ne Tennessee. I could see 3-4 (melting will undoubtedly occur), maybe a little more if the banding rotating in on the west side of our storm system sets up in a great place. Are there in house models that show more than what I can access??

I can see where the higher elevations of southwest VA could get hammered and maybe that's more the area he is referring to in his tweet for 1 foot +, but our specific area, Kingsport, Bristol, and JC don't typically do well in elevation dependent events. Maybe he will expand on his thinking as we get closer to the event. I would certainly like to hear what he has to say.

DT has his first call map out and it shows 6-11'' in all of NE Tennessee. I don't usually pay much attention to his maps though, as he really doesn't have the knowledge of our local area and terrain that some local mets have.

I agree with you on your 3-4" possibility for YBY. IMHO this is mainly a higher elevation upslope enhanced type of deal.

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Blue Ridge

Blue Ridge

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I think a lot of Robert, and enjoy his subscribed service. I do wonder though.............after looking at some of the 12z modeling, why he sees 1 foot + possible for ne Tennessee. I could see 3-4 (melting will undoubtedly occur), maybe a little more if the banding rotating in on the west side of our storm system sets up in a great place. Are there in house models that show more than what I can access??

I can see where the higher elevations of southwest VA could get hammered and maybe that's more the area he is referring to in his tweet for 1 foot +, but our specific area, Kingsport, Bristol, and JC don't typically do well in elevation dependent events. Maybe he will expand on his thinking as we get closer to the event. I would certainly like to hear what he has to say.

DT has his first call map out and it shows 6-11'' in all of NE Tennessee. I don't usually pay much attention to his maps though, as he really doesn't have the knowledge of our local area and terrain that some local mets have.

I don't subscribe to Robert, but do follow all of the tidbits he posts publicly. I, too, would love to see his reasoning behind his forecast for the Tri-Cities. I do believe MRX is underestimating the possibility of accumulating snow in the immediate Tri-Cities. 2"-4" sounds reasonable, with 6"-12"+ in the higher elevations.

Robert has been very accurate in past NW flow events, though, so I cannot dismiss his opinion. This is an unprecedented event causing atmospheric conditions to behave opposite of "climo." I believe this, combined with the concept of such an intense snowfall event so early in the season, had led to sensory overload for many of us.

Edit: MRX is sticking to its guns in the latest update via Facebook:

It should be noted that most valley locations (even those across NE Tennessee and SW Virginia are generally expected to receive minor (less than 1') to no snowfall accumulations. However, areas in the higher elevations (above 3000 ft) could receive between 4-8' of snowfall starting late tonight and persisting through Wednesday morning

Again, I feel this is strongly conservative, given the amount of moisture available and the cold air rushing in.

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