Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

EURO snow output can be accessed here...navigate model to ECMWF and map type snowfall.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

Not sure how reliable the bleed-through east of the mountains is...Wilkesboro gets in on the 0.5 color frames tho...few frames of accumulation...as well as Asheville...Lenoir....NC/VA line...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Here we go!!!!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

446 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS

STARTING MONDAY...

.TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY WILL TRANSITION INTO A NOR-EASTER OVER THE

NEXT 48 HOURS...THEN MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY

NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRONG STORM WILL

BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COLD AIR INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA

MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL BEGIN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON

MONDAY...LOWERING TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOORS MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW

WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER

ELEVATIONS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TENNESSEE

LINE AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE EXACT AMOUNT...AND HOW

MUCH FALLS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF

SANDY.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-281700-

/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0003.121029T1000Z-121031T0000Z/

MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...

SYLVA

446 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH

TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED

A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING

THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. FALLING TEMPERATURES

CAUSING TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AT HIGH ELEVATIONS MONDAY

MORNING...FALLING TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOORS BY EVENING. SNOW

SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. LESS IN THE

VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...MORE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER

ELEVATIONS.

* IMPACTS...SLICK ROADS. THE WEIGHT OF HEAVY...WET SNOW AND

STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS

CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

MCAVOY

High Wind Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

521 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT THE

MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS WEEK...

.TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC

COAST TODAY AND MONDAY. THE CENTER OF THIS LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL

MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. THE

COMBINATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY AND HIGH

PRESSURE OVER THE MID WEST WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD GUSTY NORTHWEST

WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IN

ADDITION...THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL

BRING A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.

GAZ010-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-281800-

/O.NEW.KGSP.FZ.W.0009.121029T0400Z-121029T1300Z/

/O.NEW.KGSP.HW.A.0002.121029T0400Z-121031T0000Z/

RABUN-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-

MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-

RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...

ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE

521 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT

MONDAY...

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED

A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

9 AM EDT MONDAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS

HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA

AND RABUN COUNTY OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 30. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL

RESULT IN THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR WIND

GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SCATTERED TREES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WITH THE STRONG

WIND LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS

ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND NUMEROUS TREES ARE

EXPECTED TO FALL IN THAT TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN

NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WITH TREES AND LIMBS FALLING ON POWER

LINES. GREATER AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE

BORDER COUNTIES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MORE SIGNIFICANT TREE

AND POWERLINE DAMAGE.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR

HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER

SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS

HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF

58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST

FORECASTS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

GSP overnight AFD:

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...THE LATEST GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT

IN BRINGING SANDY ONTO THE JERSEY COAST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIVING

THE STORM INTO NORTHERN MARYLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL

THEN SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE STRONG REX BLOCK OVER THE

NORTH ATLANTIC BREAKS DOWN BY TUE NIGHT.

THERE WILL A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE

SYSTEM. I CAN/T SAY I/VE EVEN SEEN A 960 MB LOW APPROACHING US FROM

THE NE ALONG WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. ONCE MIXING STARTS ON

MONDAY...I/D EXPECT WINDS TO REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA OVER

MOST OF THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS. IN FACT...THEY COULD EXTEND

ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND EVEN THE PIEDMONT BOTH

MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW I/VE ISSUED A HIGH WIND

WATCH FOR ALL THE MTNS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NE GA AND THE NC

FOOTHILLS THAT ARE NOT ALREADY IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. ABUNDANT HIGH

CLOUDS COULD LIMIT THE MIXING AWAY FROM THE MTNS...WHICH IS WHY I

HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE WATCH ANY FURTHER EAST. THE HIGH WIND WATCH

WILL RUN THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. BUT PARTS OF THE

MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE DAMAGING WINDS EVEN INTO TUESDAY

NIGHT.

SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP...AND A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE

ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE NC MTNS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SRN TIER

RUNNING FROM MACON COUNTY TO HENDERSON COUNTY. THESE AREAS WILL SEE

DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND WARMING...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS

OF SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN FORCING THAT WILL DRIVE SNOW SHOWERS INTO

THESE ZONES...I DON/T SEE THEM EVEN APPROACHING WINTER STORM

CRITERIA. OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR

THE TN LINE IT/S A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY. SOME OF THE MODEL SNOWFALL

TOTALS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THIS AREA. THE WATCH COULD HAVE BEEN

FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL

MOUNTAINS. FOR EXAMPLE...I DOUBT BRYSON CITY OR ROBBINSVILLE WILL

SEE MUCH SNOW. BUT AS IT/S A WATCH...AND IT/S VERY EARLY IN OUR

SEASON...I WANTED TO KEEP THE EXTENT RATHER BROAD. THE BEST FORCING

DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOW

SHOULD FALL. BUT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL

START TO MEASURE...AND SLICK AREAS ARE A GOOD BET WHILE SCHOOL IS IN

SESSION. THEREFORE WE HAVE STARTED THE WATCH AT 10 UTC ON MONDAY.

I WENT BELOW THE GUIDANCE FOR MTN TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

BLENDING IN THE SREF 2 METER TEMPS. POPS AND QPF WERE DERIVED FROM

THE SREF AS WELL AS HPC/S QPF. WE WILL HAVE A STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL

GRID AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

Glad to seen that GSP has signed on to the winter storm. WSW now up for the high country. 6z NAM is insane showing 1-2 feet for areas like beech mtn. GFS has slightly lower QPF amounts but in my opinion is enough to put down at least a foot up there.

I like the wsw drift of sandy to the northern wv area near then pa line. This will really allow the winds to crank up the upslope over nc with just about the perfect trajectory. Moisture will be more than abundant as will the winds.

Wish I could chase this one because its going to be a good one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ncjoaquin

ncjoaquin

Posted
Posted

Interesting image. Way over done, IMHO.

Reasons being that the moisture doesn't seem all that deep, and while the mechanical forcing seems rather decent, the flow must be perfect for totals like that in the NC mountains. Even then, only some of our best upslope events have resulted in 12", not usually 36". And that map says Asheville might get 6-10". Not a chance. I don't think that's ever happened on a NWFS event.

But an interesting image to start discussion. Thanks for posting.

I think you are probably correct. I doubt there is a recorded 6 inches in the city of the airport for a NWFS, but I do remember NWFS where you didn't have to make it to Weaverville or Leicester(where I am) to get darn close to 6 inches. Just get a couple miles outside the city. But, that has been quite a while back. There was a really sharp meterologist named AC weather that unfortunately doesn't post on here(or Eastern or Wright Weather- it's been a while!) any more, but he could call those NWFS snow events for Aville like no other. Maybe this storm will be an outlier and give us some decent snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

post-501-0-96170800-1351424093_thumb.jpg

I think you are probably correct. I doubt there is a recorded 6 inches in the city of the airport for a NWFS, but I do remember NWFS where you didn't have to make it to Weaverville or Leicester(where I am) to get darn close to 6 inches. Just get a couple miles outside the city. But, that has been quite a while back. There was a really sharp meterologist named AC weather that unfortunately doesn't post on here(or Eastern or Wright Weather- it's been a while!) any more, but he could call those NWFS snow events for Aville like no other. Maybe this storm will be an outlier and give us some decent snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ncjoaquin

ncjoaquin

Posted
Posted

Hey Mark, that map gives me a little hope. Looks like just a little way outside the city is more than an inch anyway. I have a range of mtns I can see from my house. Sometimes in these events, I can have a stray flurry blow around, while on the range of mtns the snow is like a sheet of white non-stop. Just never know. Oh well, either way is fine with me as long as I keep power and a tree doesn't crush my house.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Glad to seen that GSP has signed on to the winter storm. WSW now up for the high country. 6z NAM is insane showing 1-2 feet for areas like beech mtn. GFS has slightly lower QPF amounts but in my opinion is enough to put down at least a foot up there.

I like the wsw drift of sandy to the northern wv area near then pa line. This will really allow the winds to crank up the upslope over nc with just about the perfect trajectory. Moisture will be more than abundant as will the winds.

Wish I could chase this one because its going to be a good one.

Yep I can't wait to see what it is going to be like with gusty winds of about 40-50 and in a heavy snow squall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

I think you are probably correct. I doubt there is a recorded 6 inches in the city of the airport for a NWFS, but I do remember NWFS where you didn't have to make it to Weaverville or Leicester(where I am) to get darn close to 6 inches. Just get a couple miles outside the city. But, that has been quite a while back. There was a really sharp meterologist named AC weather that unfortunately doesn't post on here(or Eastern or Wright Weather- it's been a while!) any more, but he could call those NWFS snow events for Aville like no other. Maybe this storm will be an outlier and give us some decent snow.

Jason, good to see you posting....in Dec 2003 the fetch off the lakes lined up perfectly & We got a lake enhanced NWFS event. Up towards Weaverville we got 7.5". At the Mall it was maybe around 2" & down towards Arden they got snow showers with peeks of sun. It is def. where you are in this county & why I would like to see GSP split us like they do Jackson.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. THE

GENERAL RATIONALE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS REMAINS...WITH

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO MOST OF CENTRAL

NC FOR A PERIOD LATE MON NIGHT-TUE...AT WHICH TIME DEEP LAYER LIFT

AND SATURATION WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITHIN A SOUTHBOUND DEFORMATION

PRECIPITATION AXIS. INTERESTINGLY...FORECAST PARTIAL THICKNESS

VALUES ON THE KEETER AND CLINE (1991) TRENDS NOMOGRAM CONTINUE TO

DIP OMINOUSLY THROUGH THE WINTRY MIXTURE/MEASURABLE SNOW W/ RAIN

CATEGORIES. WHILE BUFR SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE WET BULB FREEZING

LEVELS DIPPING TO AROUND 1000 FT AGL ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT TUE

MORNING...THE OTHERWISE RELATIVELY WARMTH OF THE SUB-CLOUD/BOUNDARY

LAYER -- IN THE MID-UPPER 30S -- SUGGESTS SNOWFLAKES ALOFT SHOULD

MELT BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE.

From Raleigh :whistle:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

Good luck Jason. I think you will be suprised. Looks like my area will be sitting this one out. However, From my front yard I can see Mitchell's peak so, maybe I will get some distance visual snow showers!!!

Hey Mark, that map gives me a little hope. Looks like just a little way outside the city is more than an inch anyway. I have a range of mtns I can see from my house. Sometimes in these events, I can have a stray flurry blow around, while on the range of mtns the snow is like a sheet of white non-stop. Just never know. Oh well, either way is fine with me as long as I keep power and a tree doesn't crush my house.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tarheelwx

tarheelwx

Posted
Posted

Flying Delta from GSO-ATL-Akron tomorrow morning and then driving to Columbus tomorrow night. Flying out of Cincy Tuesday afternoon. Anyone think flights will be cancelled or have any road issues in OH? Thanks. I posed in the OV/GL forum but no response. I'll post there again as well.

Thanks

TW

Link to comment
Share on other sites
norcarolinian

norcarolinian

Posted
Posted

Flying Delta from GSO-ATL-Akron tomorrow morning and then driving to Columbus tomorrow night. Flying out of Cincy Tuesday afternoon. Anyone think flights will be cancelled or have any road issues in OH? Thanks. I posed in the OV/GL forum but no response. I'll post there again as well.

Thanks

TW

you should be ok ... other than the usual CLT congestion ... i am flying GSO-DCA on friday .... hopefully the power is on up there when i get there :-)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

From Ray, "We'll have hurricane force gusts across the region Monday and Tuesday (80+ at higher elevations). The main thought today should be to batten down the hatches. Winds will begin to increase later today and tonight."

!!!

http://www.averyweat.../Beech Mountain

Raysweather is laying out the options for blizzard conditions

Link to comment
Share on other sites
nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

..THE FORECAST FOR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN NC AT 5946 FT...

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT

TUESDAY...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE

TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS. IN THE CLOUDS ALL DAY. HIGHS IN

THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...INCREASING TO NORTHWEST

30 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 52 MPH.

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. A CHANCE OF RAIN

SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN

THE CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS

40 TO 45 MPH...INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP

TO 67 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AFTER

MIDNIGHT.

.MONDAY...CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH

THE DAY. IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES DURING THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 30.

NORTHWEST WINDS 50 TO 55 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 85 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES

IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

DETAILED FORECAST DATA...

DATE SUN 10/28/12 MON 10/29/12

TIME (EDT) 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20

TEMP (F) 38 43 43 41 35 30 28 26 25 29 30 30 28

WIND DIR N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW

WIND SPD (MPH) 20 16 14 26 37 41 46 48 50 49 54 50 50

WIND GUST (MPH) 28 23 23 42 58 63 67 67 69 78 85 78 71

WIND CHL (F) 28 35 36 30 20 13 9 6 4 10 11 11 9

PROB PRECIP (%) 29 44 58 59 54 52 58 54 76 75 82 84 89

PROB THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0

CLD HGT (100FT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0

&&

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
  • Author
Posted

http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_kekn.txt

48" of snow at Elkins, WV

This certainly has the potential to be one of the worst winter storms in WV history, rivaling that of Nov 1950, at-least in terms of max amounts. Unsure how well valley locations will do, but considering the thickness profiles over most of that state, very difficult to envision a scenario where they do not get absolutely slammed.

Regarding min pressure at or just after landfall in NJ, my original thinking was lows 950's, maybe high 940 range. 951mb at the moment and we will likely see further slow deepening today as the UL jet extending from Lake Erie up through the Davis Strait begins to intensify. As she turns back to the west here in about 24hrs, a period of greater deepening should occur as the H5 phase and capture takes place. Considering most of the globals are initializing ~10mb too weak, the fact she is already around 950, and the primary mid and upper level interactions still yet to take place, high 930's-low 940's would not shock me, hell, maybe mid-930's who knows, not like we really have anything to compare this to.

Absent Sandy, there would still have likely been a major nor'easter somewhere near SNE tomorrow into Tuesday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...