WXeastern Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 0zEuro is a bit south of its 12z Position..landfalls on the Delmarva southern tip of Jersey and heads wsw from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 EURO snow output can be accessed here...navigate model to ECMWF and map type snowfall. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Not sure how reliable the bleed-through east of the mountains is...Wilkesboro gets in on the 0.5 color frames tho...few frames of accumulation...as well as Asheville...Lenoir....NC/VA line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Here we go!!!! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 446 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS STARTING MONDAY... .TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY WILL TRANSITION INTO A NOR-EASTER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEN MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRONG STORM WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COLD AIR INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL BEGIN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY...LOWERING TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOORS MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TENNESSEE LINE AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE EXACT AMOUNT...AND HOW MUCH FALLS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY. NCZ048-051>053-058-059-281700- /O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0003.121029T1000Z-121031T0000Z/ MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE... SYLVA 446 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. FALLING TEMPERATURES CAUSING TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AT HIGH ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING...FALLING TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOORS BY EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. LESS IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...MORE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * IMPACTS...SLICK ROADS. THE WEIGHT OF HEAVY...WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP. MCAVOY High Wind Watch URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 521 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS WEEK... .TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND MONDAY. THE CENTER OF THIS LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID WEST WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. GAZ010-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-281800- /O.NEW.KGSP.FZ.W.0009.121029T0400Z-121029T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KGSP.HW.A.0002.121029T0400Z-121031T0000Z/ RABUN-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON- MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE... ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE 521 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY... ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND RABUN COUNTY OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 30. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON. * HAZARDS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED TREES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WITH THE STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND NUMEROUS TREES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL IN THAT TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WITH TREES AND LIMBS FALLING ON POWER LINES. GREATER AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MORE SIGNIFICANT TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. * TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION. A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Good luck mountain folks!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GSP overnight AFD: .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...THE LATEST GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SANDY ONTO THE JERSEY COAST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIVING THE STORM INTO NORTHERN MARYLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE STRONG REX BLOCK OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BREAKS DOWN BY TUE NIGHT. THERE WILL A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. I CAN/T SAY I/VE EVEN SEEN A 960 MB LOW APPROACHING US FROM THE NE ALONG WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. ONCE MIXING STARTS ON MONDAY...I/D EXPECT WINDS TO REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA OVER MOST OF THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS. IN FACT...THEY COULD EXTEND ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND EVEN THE PIEDMONT BOTH MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW I/VE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ALL THE MTNS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NE GA AND THE NC FOOTHILLS THAT ARE NOT ALREADY IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT THE MIXING AWAY FROM THE MTNS...WHICH IS WHY I HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE WATCH ANY FURTHER EAST. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL RUN THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. BUT PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE DAMAGING WINDS EVEN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP...AND A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE NC MTNS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SRN TIER RUNNING FROM MACON COUNTY TO HENDERSON COUNTY. THESE AREAS WILL SEE DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND WARMING...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN FORCING THAT WILL DRIVE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THESE ZONES...I DON/T SEE THEM EVEN APPROACHING WINTER STORM CRITERIA. OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE TN LINE IT/S A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY. SOME OF THE MODEL SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THIS AREA. THE WATCH COULD HAVE BEEN FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FOR EXAMPLE...I DOUBT BRYSON CITY OR ROBBINSVILLE WILL SEE MUCH SNOW. BUT AS IT/S A WATCH...AND IT/S VERY EARLY IN OUR SEASON...I WANTED TO KEEP THE EXTENT RATHER BROAD. THE BEST FORCING DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL. BUT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL START TO MEASURE...AND SLICK AREAS ARE A GOOD BET WHILE SCHOOL IS IN SESSION. THEREFORE WE HAVE STARTED THE WATCH AT 10 UTC ON MONDAY. I WENT BELOW THE GUIDANCE FOR MTN TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... BLENDING IN THE SREF 2 METER TEMPS. POPS AND QPF WERE DERIVED FROM THE SREF AS WELL AS HPC/S QPF. WE WILL HAVE A STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL GRID AVAILABLE SHORTLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Glad to seen that GSP has signed on to the winter storm. WSW now up for the high country. 6z NAM is insane showing 1-2 feet for areas like beech mtn. GFS has slightly lower QPF amounts but in my opinion is enough to put down at least a foot up there. I like the wsw drift of sandy to the northern wv area near then pa line. This will really allow the winds to crank up the upslope over nc with just about the perfect trajectory. Moisture will be more than abundant as will the winds. Wish I could chase this one because its going to be a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Interesting image. Way over done, IMHO. Reasons being that the moisture doesn't seem all that deep, and while the mechanical forcing seems rather decent, the flow must be perfect for totals like that in the NC mountains. Even then, only some of our best upslope events have resulted in 12", not usually 36". And that map says Asheville might get 6-10". Not a chance. I don't think that's ever happened on a NWFS event. But an interesting image to start discussion. Thanks for posting. I think you are probably correct. I doubt there is a recorded 6 inches in the city of the airport for a NWFS, but I do remember NWFS where you didn't have to make it to Weaverville or Leicester(where I am) to get darn close to 6 inches. Just get a couple miles outside the city. But, that has been quite a while back. There was a really sharp meterologist named AC weather that unfortunately doesn't post on here(or Eastern or Wright Weather- it's been a while!) any more, but he could call those NWFS snow events for Aville like no other. Maybe this storm will be an outlier and give us some decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I think you are probably correct. I doubt there is a recorded 6 inches in the city of the airport for a NWFS, but I do remember NWFS where you didn't have to make it to Weaverville or Leicester(where I am) to get darn close to 6 inches. Just get a couple miles outside the city. But, that has been quite a while back. There was a really sharp meterologist named AC weather that unfortunately doesn't post on here(or Eastern or Wright Weather- it's been a while!) any more, but he could call those NWFS snow events for Aville like no other. Maybe this storm will be an outlier and give us some decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Hey Mark, that map gives me a little hope. Looks like just a little way outside the city is more than an inch anyway. I have a range of mtns I can see from my house. Sometimes in these events, I can have a stray flurry blow around, while on the range of mtns the snow is like a sheet of white non-stop. Just never know. Oh well, either way is fine with me as long as I keep power and a tree doesn't crush my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Glad to seen that GSP has signed on to the winter storm. WSW now up for the high country. 6z NAM is insane showing 1-2 feet for areas like beech mtn. GFS has slightly lower QPF amounts but in my opinion is enough to put down at least a foot up there. I like the wsw drift of sandy to the northern wv area near then pa line. This will really allow the winds to crank up the upslope over nc with just about the perfect trajectory. Moisture will be more than abundant as will the winds. Wish I could chase this one because its going to be a good one. Yep I can't wait to see what it is going to be like with gusty winds of about 40-50 and in a heavy snow squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 8:00 AM advisory... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I think you are probably correct. I doubt there is a recorded 6 inches in the city of the airport for a NWFS, but I do remember NWFS where you didn't have to make it to Weaverville or Leicester(where I am) to get darn close to 6 inches. Just get a couple miles outside the city. But, that has been quite a while back. There was a really sharp meterologist named AC weather that unfortunately doesn't post on here(or Eastern or Wright Weather- it's been a while!) any more, but he could call those NWFS snow events for Aville like no other. Maybe this storm will be an outlier and give us some decent snow. Jason, good to see you posting....in Dec 2003 the fetch off the lakes lined up perfectly & We got a lake enhanced NWFS event. Up towards Weaverville we got 7.5". At the Mall it was maybe around 2" & down towards Arden they got snow showers with peeks of sun. It is def. where you are in this county & why I would like to see GSP split us like they do Jackson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. THE GENERAL RATIONALE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS REMAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO MOST OF CENTRAL NC FOR A PERIOD LATE MON NIGHT-TUE...AT WHICH TIME DEEP LAYER LIFT AND SATURATION WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITHIN A SOUTHBOUND DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION AXIS. INTERESTINGLY...FORECAST PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES ON THE KEETER AND CLINE (1991) TRENDS NOMOGRAM CONTINUE TO DIP OMINOUSLY THROUGH THE WINTRY MIXTURE/MEASURABLE SNOW W/ RAIN CATEGORIES. WHILE BUFR SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS DIPPING TO AROUND 1000 FT AGL ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT TUE MORNING...THE OTHERWISE RELATIVELY WARMTH OF THE SUB-CLOUD/BOUNDARY LAYER -- IN THE MID-UPPER 30S -- SUGGESTS SNOWFLAKES ALOFT SHOULD MELT BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. From Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Good luck Jason. I think you will be suprised. Looks like my area will be sitting this one out. However, From my front yard I can see Mitchell's peak so, maybe I will get some distance visual snow showers!!! Hey Mark, that map gives me a little hope. Looks like just a little way outside the city is more than an inch anyway. I have a range of mtns I can see from my house. Sometimes in these events, I can have a stray flurry blow around, while on the range of mtns the snow is like a sheet of white non-stop. Just never know. Oh well, either way is fine with me as long as I keep power and a tree doesn't crush my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Flying Delta from GSO-ATL-Akron tomorrow morning and then driving to Columbus tomorrow night. Flying out of Cincy Tuesday afternoon. Anyone think flights will be cancelled or have any road issues in OH? Thanks. I posed in the OV/GL forum but no response. I'll post there again as well. Thanks TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Flying Delta from GSO-ATL-Akron tomorrow morning and then driving to Columbus tomorrow night. Flying out of Cincy Tuesday afternoon. Anyone think flights will be cancelled or have any road issues in OH? Thanks. I posed in the OV/GL forum but no response. I'll post there again as well. Thanks TW you should be ok ... other than the usual CLT congestion ... i am flying GSO-DCA on friday .... hopefully the power is on up there when i get there :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 http://www.averyweather.com/Forecast/Beech+Mountain Raysweather is laying out the options for blizzard conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 WSI still wanting some accumulating snow in the Triad and North Piedmont. http://fb.me/2mDbEklrG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 From Ray, "We'll have hurricane force gusts across the region Monday and Tuesday (80+ at higher elevations). The main thought today should be to batten down the hatches. Winds will begin to increase later today and tonight." !!! http://www.averyweat.../Beech Mountain Raysweather is laying out the options for blizzard conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 WSB has snow in a large area if N GA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Cold rain and 50 right now. Its raw out here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 We may never see something like this again in our lifetime, these are all the hurricane force wind warnings out! http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Hurricane%20Force%20Wind%20Warning pages worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_kekn.txt 48" of snow at Elkins, WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 If the NAM keeps moving south with the moisture RDU might get a nice a surpris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 ..THE FORECAST FOR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN NC AT 5946 FT... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... .TODAY...CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS. IN THE CLOUDS ALL DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...INCREASING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 52 MPH. .TONIGHT...CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH...INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 67 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT. .MONDAY...CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES DURING THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS 50 TO 55 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 85 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. DETAILED FORECAST DATA... DATE SUN 10/28/12 MON 10/29/12 TIME (EDT) 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 TEMP (F) 38 43 43 41 35 30 28 26 25 29 30 30 28 WIND DIR N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW WIND SPD (MPH) 20 16 14 26 37 41 46 48 50 49 54 50 50 WIND GUST (MPH) 28 23 23 42 58 63 67 67 69 78 85 78 71 WIND CHL (F) 28 35 36 30 20 13 9 6 4 10 11 11 9 PROB PRECIP (%) 29 44 58 59 54 52 58 54 76 75 82 84 89 PROB THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 CLD HGT (100FT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_kekn.txt 48" of snow at Elkins, WV This certainly has the potential to be one of the worst winter storms in WV history, rivaling that of Nov 1950, at-least in terms of max amounts. Unsure how well valley locations will do, but considering the thickness profiles over most of that state, very difficult to envision a scenario where they do not get absolutely slammed. Regarding min pressure at or just after landfall in NJ, my original thinking was lows 950's, maybe high 940 range. 951mb at the moment and we will likely see further slow deepening today as the UL jet extending from Lake Erie up through the Davis Strait begins to intensify. As she turns back to the west here in about 24hrs, a period of greater deepening should occur as the H5 phase and capture takes place. Considering most of the globals are initializing ~10mb too weak, the fact she is already around 950, and the primary mid and upper level interactions still yet to take place, high 930's-low 940's would not shock me, hell, maybe mid-930's who knows, not like we really have anything to compare this to. Absent Sandy, there would still have likely been a major nor'easter somewhere near SNE tomorrow into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 15-20 closed contours on the 850, 12z nam @ 36hrs Wind starting to pick back up here this morning, went through kind a lull overnight, 15-20 range, back up into the mid 20's gusting 30+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GSP NW Mountains Weather Broadcast from UNC-TV tower on Grandmother Mountain http://audioplayer.wunderground.com/W4CLT/Morganton.mp3.m3u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_kekn.txt 48" of snow at Elkins, WV LOL at the 11" in 3 hours. I bet that will happen somewhere in WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Brad Panovich's late morning video on High Country Snow and Wind threat: http://www.skisoutheast.com/video-forecast.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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