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Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
Posted

Interesting image. Way over done, IMHO.

Reasons being that the moisture doesn't seem all that deep, and while the mechanical forcing seems rather decent, the flow must be perfect for totals like that in the NC mountains. Even then, only some of our best upslope events have resulted in 12", not usually 36". And that map says Asheville might get 6-10". Not a chance. I don't think that's ever happened on a NWFS event.

But an interesting image to start discussion. Thanks for posting.

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

Greetings from western Pitt County, NC, stubbornly just outside the western edge of the precip shield, where forecasts had me picking up an inch of rain by now, with several more inches on the way. Storm total so far: .08". Precip shield still making zero progress inland. Oh well...

It's like living in the western part of the Triangle. Welcome to my world.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Interesting image. Way over done, IMHO.

Reasons being that the moisture doesn't seem all that deep, and while the mechanical forcing seems rather decent, the flow must be perfect for totals like that in the NC mountains. Even then, only some of our best upslope events have resulted in 12", not usually 36". And that map says Asheville might get 6-10". Not a chance. I don't think that's ever happened on a NWFS event.

But an interesting image to start discussion. Thanks for posting.

Cheez said earlier the WSI had Sandy hitting further south which is why I think it had snow as it did...more moisture was coming in because of Sandy....hey maybe some will get lucky and it will take a quick left turn. hotdog.gif

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

Twitter followers:

Use #wncSandy to follow and report on the impending snow threat for the High Country.

On a separate note, someone noted that both Sugar and Cataloochee were going to also fire up pole cats tomorrow to blow some snow over the next few days. Get the skis ready as you will probably be able to do some skiing next week!

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

$

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-290315-

AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-

MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-

1111 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE

INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

HIGH WIND WATCH.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN INTENSE

EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND MOVE ASHORE SOMEWHERE ACROSS

THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND

FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY BE

STRONG ENOUGH TO TOPPLE TREES AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...FALLING TEMPERATURES

AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG

THE TENNESSEE LINE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING. PERIODS OF SNOW ARE

EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF AND END ON

WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UPSLOPE

SNOW IS INCREASING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS

AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE LINE. A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED AS

WE GAIN GREATER CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS AND TIMING. AT THIS

TIME...WE EXPECT THE GREATEST SNOWFALL TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AND

TUESDAY POSSIBLY TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY

NIGHT. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...WITH

SIMILAR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

$$

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
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0z NAM still holds serve for decent snow for Beech Mtn. area. I'm still pulling for about a foot in that area. I would not be surprised to see winter storm watches go up in that area.

I'm not all that excited about anywhere else outside the "high county" of NC unless you are at Snowshoe WV.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Don't look now but 00z GFS throws some moisture into Central NC down towards CLT region. Not the best time frame for the GFS but interesting. It actually looks like it would line up with the WSI for NC.

Burger. Sandy just sits and spins on the 0z. I keep tapping next on the iPad and it seems like it is the same slide each time. Precip amounts are high. The 18z was dry. Impressive run.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Burger. Sandy just sits and spins on the 0z. I keep tapping next on the iPad and it seems like it is the same slide each time. Precip amounts are high. The 18z was dry. Impressive run.

The difference in moisture for NC is night and day between 18z and 00z...interestingly enough qpf pretty much everywhere else is not as strong.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

The difference in moisture for NC is night and day between 18z and 00z...interestingly enough qpf pretty much everywhere else is not as strong.

Precip amounts in E TN are higher and more widespread than 18z. Seems to be pretty much a continuation of its previous runs minus 18z. Stalled system jogging SW after landfall. Amazing to follow. Will be interesting to see Robert's thoughts on his website after 0z runs.

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1234snow

1234snow

Posted
Posted

Precip amounts in E TN are higher and more widespread than 18z. Seems to be pretty much a continuation of its previous runs minus 18z. Stalled system jogging SW after landfall. Amazing to follow. Will be interesting to see Robert's thoughts on his website after 0z runs.

Yeah this is amazing to follow. I never thought snow would be possible in October, much less from a hurricane. I went out today and bought some salt (surprised that there was some) just in case. If it doesn't come a bad snow then I'll have salt ready to go for the rest of winter. What's cool about this storm on the west side of this Apps is how it resembles a upslope flow event, except this time moisture is getting flung in from the Atlantic (with some moisture coming off the lakes) and that the rain/snow gradient is opposite of what would normally happen (rain further south/snow further north).

There is still about half of the leaves on the trees but they are falling down quickly. It is scary enough what a heavy, wet snow can do to trees without any leaves. Add in leaves and high winds and it could be very bad in the higher elevations of SWVA and the TN/NC mountains. Power could be out for a long time like in the Dec, 2009 storm. It could be a "dark" Halloween.

I thought WJHL did a good job illustrating what could happen with this time. Looked like the accumulation map they showed was the 12z RPM model run which destroyed SWVA with up to 2-3 feet of snow. Nathan Scott put out 1-3 inches for the Tri-Cites which seems reasonable at this point and 4-8 for the higher terrain. He pointed out that the accumulation map looked overdone.

I guess the good thing is that the ground is really warm, but if the rates are high enough it won't matter.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Precip amounts in E TN are higher and more widespread than 18z. Seems to be pretty much a continuation of its previous runs minus 18z. Stalled system jogging SW after landfall. Amazing to follow. Will be interesting to see Robert's thoughts on his website after 0z runs.

Ya Roberts wright ups have been top notch. The farther south the low comes the more moisture we can get thrown back into the mountains. Very interesting seeing this storm take shape and getting pretty excited to say the least. Trying to hold back though because it could go farther north and really cut down on the snow.

^ Do wind speeds affect rates? I can only imagine 60mph gusts making the simplest light snow shower come down extremely hard in the higher terrain.

I would say yes especailly if the temp is below freezing. I would think that the wind would cool the ground temp quicker and I really cannot imagine what a heavy snow squall in 40-60 mph winds would look like but, I am up for experiencing it.
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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

^ Then again I guess winds will also negate accumulation as much as it improves the rates. Snow will be on the move top down and after down to sideways. < And for elevations below 3,000ft...that could take away everything. If there's enough above 3,000ft, probably just piles up on the sides of buildings or w/e...then probably piles up everywhere if you get so much...3,500ft+...

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

^ Then again I guess winds will also negate accumulation as much as it improves the rates. Snow will be on the move top down and after down to sideways. < And for elevations below 3,000ft...that could take away everything. If there's enough above 3,000ft, probably just piles up on the sides of buildings or w/e...then probably piles up everywhere if you get so much...3,500ft+...

Well I really have not been in a snowstorm with winds like this. Maybe in the blizzardof 93 but the winds only made the snow drifts deeper and made getting around a lot harder. Please if any met has some more insight please correct what I am saying. But living in the mountains the winds have not really hampered snow growth. Only seems to make it biting cold reduces visibility.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

Well I really have not been in a snowstorm with winds like this. Maybe in the blizzardof 93 but the winds only made the snow drifts deeper and made getting around a lot harder. Please if any met has some more insight please correct what I am saying. But living in the mountains the winds have not really hampered snow growth. Only seems to make it biting cold reduces visibility.

Sounds right, esp. with that amount of precip.

But for everyone else,(< 3,000ft) don't really expect much if just a few tenths of snow falls from the sky...warm ground and wind may possibly take care of it for us.

I can recall several events where we get a few tenths of snow...and it disappears with wind gusts. I remember seeing all of like .3 of snow fly off a roof...into what looked like outer-space because it surely did not stick to the ground.

That is foothill living in its finest! hotdog.gif

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Kilgore Trout

Kilgore Trout

Posted
Posted

Interesting image. Way over done, IMHO.

Reasons being that the moisture doesn't seem all that deep, and while the mechanical forcing seems rather decent, the flow must be perfect for totals like that in the NC mountains. Even then, only some of our best upslope events have resulted in 12", not usually 36". And that map says Asheville might get 6-10". Not a chance. I don't think that's ever happened on a NWFS event.

But an interesting image to start discussion. Thanks for posting.

While I mostly agree with your assessment, I think it is hard to compare this with other NWFS events. The energy that this system has is likely going to be more than any other weather event on record. If their is enough moisture, the wind and energy with this system could bring snow much further into the eastern part of the mountains and foothills. Still though, I would be shocked to see 6-10 in the AVL area.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

While I mostly agree with your assessment, I think it is hard to compare this with other NWFS events. The energy that this system has is likely going to be more than any other weather event on record. If their is enough moisture, the wind and energy with this system could bring snow much further into the eastern part of the mountains and foothills. Still though, I would be shocked to see 6-10 in the AVL area.

Or Asheville to Mount Airy could be snow shadowed over like what the models are showing...consistently as a matter of fact.hotdog.gif

Increased rain/snow showers would be nice tho with this type of energy overhead...

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

How often does the South-East region thread get to talk 100% snow while the New England thread talks about 100% hurricane?

A few things I would like to add as we wait for the EURO...wind will be major threat down here too. NWS already citing widespread power-outages possible in the mountains...trees may be falling even if there was not a heavy snow chance....which there is...as discussed in the High Wind Watch.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

How often does the South-East region thread get to talk 100% snow while the New England thread talks about 100% hurricane?

A few things I would like to add as we wait for the EURO...wind will be major threat down here too. NWS already citing widespread power-outages possible in the mountains...trees may be falling even if there was not a heavy snow chance....which there is...as discussed in the High Wind Watch.

Ya the wind will may a major factor in the next few days. Already windy here.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

I noticed the West Virginia counties with the Winter Storm Watch do not have the high wind watch like the neighboring counties have. Makes me wonder if they are wanting to upgrade to a blizzard watch? They now think 1-2ft is easily possible but elevation dependent.

NC mountains have a high wind watch. Would they also add a Winter Storm Watch on top of that or cancel it?

Winter Storm Watch + High Wind Watch = Blizzard Watch?

Or is my equation wrong? I know a widespread coverage of the county has to meet criteria, Beech Mountain or TN/NC state line might not cut it...not sure.

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