Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

[HKY18]

Looks like 00z GFS is bringing it onshore in far north NJ. I swear it seems like Snowshoe, WV has been ground zero for snow for like 80 runs in a row now.

Agreed. No matter where it has made landfall on the models for the past few days it buries them. I'm considering a chase.

[Met1985]

Looks like 00z GFS is bringing it onshore in far north NJ. I swear it seems like Snowshoe, WV has been ground zero for snow for like 80 runs in a row now.

Yep I have notices that too. They look like there are going to get blasted. Also seems like the GFS is wanting to start snow in the mountains at about hr60 on through will bands coming in from the north.

[griteater]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV

0322 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ELKINS WV...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES WAS SET AT ELKINS WV

YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 78 SET IN 1991.

[NCSNOW]

At work we've already bookmarked the webcams at snowshoe for viewing pleasure Monday, if the wind doesn't knock them out. With the dumbell/Hard left turn that is forecasted by every model to take place as the phase takes hold it's important to remeber that if it occurs say 60- 90 minutes earlier than the GFS just put out at 0z, the net result would be 50 miles futher south for the axis of heavy mtn snow. Meaning you would see sw va, northern nc mtns get hit pretty hard. On the flip side an hour latter and it's a minimal event outside high wind and cold. Point is we are still 72+ hours from landfall if you will and I'd be willing to bet the exact timing this hard left takes place isn't set in stone. Regardless of what sensible weather we feel. IMO watching the jetstreams phase a monster (fujiwara)is a thing of beauty. I think 40mph gust across nc east of mtns is a high probability for Mon/Tues.

[griteater]

GFS has 60-70 kt winds at 850mb (~5000 ft) in the NC mtns at hr72 (Mon night)

[Met1985]

GFS has 60-70 kt winds at 850mb (~5000 ft) in the NC mtns at hr72 (Mon night)

Ya and with the temps forecast to be in the mid 20s; we could see some wind chills dip to near zero maybe with upslope snow. Wow that would be something very high winds and white out conditions.

[John1122]

HPC line of thinking.

[NavarreDon]

Here we go Mnt. peeps. GSP has a nice write up in the overnight AFD.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 345 AM SAT...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF

CONTINUE TO TAKE SANDY ON A LEFT HOOK ONTO THE EAST COAST MONDAY

NIGHT. THE GFS TIMING HAS ACCELERATED...AND IT MOVES THE STORM

INLAND JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY EVENING. NOT TO BE

OUTDONE...THE ECMWF TAKES THE CYCLONE ASHORE OVER DELAWARE LATE

MONDAY EVENING. THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM

ALREADY LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY

SLOT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS

LOFTING NW OF THE LOW IN THE MANOR THAT TROPICAL CYCLONES DO WHEN

THEY UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

THE NHC TRACK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE EC AND THAT/S WHAT

I/VE USED FOR THE THIS FORECAST. IT/S INTERESTING THAT THE NAM AND

GFS TRUCK THE SFC LOW INTO WRN PA WHILE THE EC STALLS IT NEAR

WASHINGTON DC ON TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD

BRING QUITE A BIT OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE NC MTNS MONDAY

INTO TUESDAY. ACTUALLY...AS A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CUTS OFF

OVER THE MTNS ON SUNDAY...THERE COULD EVEN BE A PERIOD OF

SYNOPTICALLY FORCED PCPN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTN...THOUGH THE BEST

FORCING APPEARS TO BE JUST A HAIR NORTH OF THE FA DURING THIS TIME.

IF THE GFS VERIFIES THE PCPN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY. THE NAM IS

SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE THICKNESSES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT

MOSTLY SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ABOVE ABOUT 3KFT...WHILE

THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE

FORECAST STILL DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH SANDY COMES ASHORE AND WHERE

THE INTENSE UPPER LOW WILL CUT-OFF. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR A

PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF

THE NC MTNS ARE INCREASING FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD.

A HIGH ELEVATION FREEZE STILL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET SUNDAY NIGHT.

WE COULD HAVE ISSUED A 4TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCH...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD

OFF AS THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES WANTED TO WAIT. BY MONDAY NIGHT

FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ENVELOP ALL OF THE NC MTNS AND EVEN

PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS. DOWNSLOPE MIXING SHOULD KEEP THE PIEDMONT

ABOVE FREEZING.

STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE MTNS THE

ADJACENT FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AS COLD ADVECTION AND THE TIGHTENING

GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF SANDY HELP TRANSPORT THE

STRENGTHENING LLVL WIND FIELD TO THE GROUND. THIS INCLUDES THE NRN

MTNS...THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND THE BLUE RIDGE

EAST OF THESE AREAS. ON MONDAY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 40 KT

WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. OVER

THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...WINDS ARE CLOSER TO 50 KTS AND IN SOME

CASES HIGHER. IF THIS TREND HOLDS...A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL ALSO BE

NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EITHER SUNDAY NIGHT

OR MONDAY. AND THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE

THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OUT ACROSS THE

PIEDMONT.

[Met1985]

Thanks Don! Very nice wright up. Looking forward to this to developing this weekend. Like I said in an earlier post. High winds and heavy upslope snow would be awsome for this time of the year. Still a lot can happen from now till Monday but we are inching closer and this is no fantasy storm anymore.

[John1122]

From MRX SPS.

AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY MIX

WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER

SOUTHWEST VA AND THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS

IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE

REMNANTS OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER

SOUTHWEST VA...NORTHEAST TN AND THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS. ACCUMULATING

SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.

[DaculaWeather]

Lets see what happens...if this storm ends up making landfall NYC or north, in my opinion GFS wins, if its south of central NJ than Euro wins, in between its a tie.

The GFS was forecasting a fish storm...

[MichaelJ]

Yeah, the GFS has tried to take this out to sea until very recently while the Euro had it coming inland a long time now. Get within 2-4 days and the GFS is in it's wheelhouse but outside that time frame, it's crap.

[MotoWeatherman]

6z GFS gives the high country of wnc 6 plus inches of snow. It seems much of the guidance is now set on a nj hit with the system then stalling in the pa area.

Just checked the 6z nam as well. Both solutions present a great setup for WNC IMHO.

If we get the lower NJ landfall with a stall near the pa/wv/md border then I think places like beech mtn will get a foot out of this.

Snowshoe wv still looks like the jackpot with insane rates at times.

[burgertime]

6z GFS gives the high country of wnc 6 plus inches of snow. It seems much of the guidance is now set on a nj hit with the system then stalling in the pa area.

6z SV snowfall map does putt a little bit of snow into the GSO area interesting enough. Only shows up for two frames and is only 0.1 of QPF but at least it's something for someone outside of the mountains.

[Met1985]

6z GFS gives the high country of wnc 6 plus inches of snow. It seems much of the guidance is now set on a nj hit with the system then stalling in the pa area.

Looking more and more likely that the mountains will see some significant snowfall from this storm.

[burgertime]

Also I didn't see it mentioned but QPF from the Euro last night had all of NC had .25 and up. Of course there is a suspicious triangle over MBY sandwiched between the foothills and GSO that has the lowest QPF.

[MotoWeatherman]

6z SV snowfall map does putt a little bit of snow into the GSO area interesting enough. Only shows up for two frames and is only 0.1 of QPF but at least it's something for someone outside of the mountains.

I was just looking at the 6z GFS 925mb temps and the boundary layer does look like a big issue outside the mountains unfortunately but I wouldn't be surprised if someone outside the mountains saw some sort of mix.

Looking more and more likely that the mountains will see some significant snowfall from this storm.

Yes it does. Guidance is looking more and more like the Euro NJ hit solution and the 6z models wrap the moisture back into NC very nicely. 700mb moisture wraps back nicely late Monday into Tuesday for WNC snow chances.

[MotoWeatherman]

6z NAM extracted data shows 9.2" of snow for Boone, NC. The formatting is off on this a bit as the snow fall is in the "cloud vis" column.

Station ID: KTNB Lat:   36.20 Long:  -81.65                                                        
NAM Model Run:  6Z 27OCT 2012
 HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM
  0 10/27 06Z   54     50      64       2    0.00  0.00    561    574    9.6 -11.3 1014 100       136OVC420    0.0   15.0
  3 10/27 09Z   53     51      19       4    0.00  0.00    562    572   10.7 -11.1 1012 100       243OVC399    0.0   15.1
  6 10/27 12Z   52     50     348       4    0.00  0.00    561    572   10.5 -11.4 1011 100       198OVC378    0.0   13.2
  9 10/27 15Z   60     54      45       7    0.00  0.00    561    571   10.5 -12.2 1011 100       043OVC398    0.0   15.0
 12 10/27 18Z   60     54     349       9    0.00  0.00    561    570   10.3 -12.5 1010 100       043OVC420    0.0   15.1
 15 10/27 21Z   56     52     332      12    0.01  0.00    560    568    9.1 -12.0 1009 100 -RA   058OVC419    0.0   15.1
 18 10/28 00Z   47     45     334      13    0.01  0.00    559    567    9.7 -12.2 1010 100       101OVC419    0.0   11.8
 21 10/28 03Z   44     43     331      12    0.01  0.00    558    567    8.9 -11.5 1010 100       101OVC397    0.0   11.9
 24 10/28 06Z   43     41     331      11    0.01  0.00    557    566    8.5 -12.2 1010 100 -RA   065OVC396    0.0   11.9
 27 10/28 09Z   43     41     325      11    0.01  0.00    555    563    7.0 -13.3 1009 100 -RA   095OVC395    0.0   11.9
 30 10/28 12Z   41     39     323      12    0.01  0.00    554    562    7.4 -14.0 1009 100 -RA   064OVC395    0.0   10.3
 33 10/28 15Z   45     41     324      13    0.01  0.00    553    561    6.3 -15.1 1009  99 -RA   091OVC358    0.0   10.9
 36 10/28 18Z   44     40     317      17    0.01  0.00    552    558    4.9 -16.2 1008  99       064OVC346    0.0   14.8
 39 10/28 21Z   40     36     322      20    0.02  0.00    548    555    0.8 -17.8 1008 100 -RA   053OVC125    0.0   12.6
 42 10/29 00Z   35     32     326      23    0.04  0.00    546    553   -0.4 -19.0 1009  82 -RA   056BKN068    0.0    4.9
 45 10/29 03Z   33     31     325      25    0.04  0.00    545    552   -1.1 -18.9 1009  81 -RA   097BKN120    0.0    5.5
 48 10/29 06Z   33     31     323      25    0.04  0.00    544    550   -1.4 -18.5 1007  89 -RA   051BKN067    0.0    4.7
 51 10/29 09Z   32     30     323      26    0.05  0.00    543    547   -2.3 -19.4 1005  89 -FZRN 035BKN054    0.0    3.7
 54 10/29 12Z   31     29     321      26    0.04  0.00    541    546   -3.0 -19.3 1005  93 -FZRN 082BKN101    0.0    3.6
 57 10/29 15Z   34     29     318      27    0.04  0.00    542    545   -3.1 -20.3 1004  96 -SN   045BKN169    0.4    5.4
 60 10/29 18Z   35     29     314      27    0.03  0.00    542    544   -2.9 -20.1 1002 100 -SN   039OVC178    0.3    4.4
 63 10/29 21Z   32     28     309      28    0.07  0.00    542    542   -3.4 -18.3 1000 100 SN    043OVC257    0.7    3.1
 66 10/30 00Z   30     27     308      30    0.14  0.00    542    542   -3.5 -18.1 1000 100 -SN   035OVC346    1.3    2.2
 69 10/30 03Z   30     27     303      30    0.11  0.00    543    542   -3.8 -17.1  998 100 -SN   039OVC350    1.1    2.7
 72 10/30 06Z   28     25     299      31    0.12  0.00    543    541   -4.4 -15.8  997 100 SN    032OVC349    1.2    2.0
 75 10/30 09Z   28     25     296      30    0.12  0.00    544    541   -4.5 -13.8  996 100 SN    036OVC350    1.2    2.7
 78 10/30 12Z   28     24     289      26    0.14  0.00    545    542   -4.3 -11.5  997 100 SN    034OVC309    1.4    2.4
 81 10/30 15Z   29     26     289      23    0.11  0.00    547    545   -4.4 -11.8  998 100 -SN   042OVC370    1.0    3.0
 84 10/30 18Z   30     27     290      22    0.06  0.00    547    546   -4.2 -13.1  998 100 -SN   035OVC370    0.6    3.0

[MotoWeatherman]

could asheville see any snow in the next three days?

I don't think that is out of the realm of possibilities. The boundary layer will be problematic there but if any heavier qpf can make it that far south then the possibility would go up.

Right now if I had to make a forecast for AVL I would mention the possibility of snow mixing in at times with no accumulation.

[Dunkman]

According to the latest pass from the AF mission, rumors of Hurricane Sandy's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

[Pilotwx]

Don't let your guard down folks thinking that because your not going to get a foot of snow that this is going to be a non-event. The wind will extremely strong and rain fall while not extremely high amounts back toward the triad area, points east of the triangle area should see flooding potential along with high winds. All of us should prepare as if were going to be without power for a few days. Power crews will be in high demand up and down the east coast, and you might not be a priority.

I have posted a link to the GOES Sat WV look at how this thing is banking up against the mountains and how huge this storm is. I would not rule out anything yet!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

[BIG FROSTY]

I still think we may see some flurries at least, here in the foothills!!!

[Met1985]

I was just looking at the 6z GFS 925mb temps and the boundary layer does look like a big issue outside the mountains unfortunately but I wouldn't be surprised if someone outside the mountains saw some sort of mix.

Yes it does. Guidance is looking more and more like the Euro NJ hit solution and the 6z models wrap the moisture back into NC very nicely. 700mb moisture wraps back nicely late Monday into Tuesday for WNC snow chances.

Ya I would say that with the leaves 50/50 gone and even just a light layer of snow on the tree and the winds howling could cause major power outages around the high country. This setup reminds me a lot of the county's that are in the favored upslope spots. Particularly the TN/NC boarder counties. Should be fun to watch unfold. Sounds like Sandy is restrengthening. How low can we go.

[HurricaneTracker]

I don't think that is out of the realm of possibilities. The boundary layer will be problematic there but if any heavier qpf can make it that far south then the possibility would go up.

Right now if I had to make a forecast for AVL I would mention the possibility of snow mixing in at times with no accumulation.

I agree. I don't see AVL getting much, if any, snow from this event. Likely issue being that traditional upslope snow usually doesn't make it into the valley and really stops in Madison County. Perhaps a few flurries floating through the air..correction...whizzing past your ears...but nothing substantial.

The bigger story focus for AVL should be the winds. I think we hit High Wind Warning criteria Monday and Tuesday.

[mackerel_sky]

They just showed an animated model run on TV,and from Sun night - Tue,it showed snow falling on the NC high mtns the whole time

[POWERSTROKE]

Don't let your guard down folks thinking that because your not going to get a foot of snow that this is going to be a non-event. The wind will extremely strong and rain fall while not extremely high amounts back toward the triad area, points east of the triangle area should see flooding potential along with high winds. All of us should prepare as if were going to be without power for a few days. Power crews will be in high demand up and down the east coast, and you might not be a priority.

I have posted a link to the GOES Sat WV look at how this thing is banking up against the mountains and how huge this storm is. I would not rule out anything yet!

http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html

I will just come stay with you and Frosty

[triadwx]

12z NAM looks like it's close to a little frozen action for the Triad north, no?

Hopes aren't up, but glad to see some of the high-resolution models picking some up outside of the mountains.

[MotoWeatherman]

12Z nam equals wow for snow in wv and good stuff for nc high country. I think a foot is very possible in areas like beech mtn.

I would not be surprised to see winter storm watches go up for the high country of wnc.

[Cheeznado]

12Z WSI RPM shows a much farther south landfall, accumulating snow in the NC Piedmont and the north GA mtns, 2 feet of snow NC mtns. This the TV model.....(12KM WRF)

[MotoWeatherman]

12Z WSI RPM shows a much farther south landfall, accumulating snow in the NC Piedmont and the north GA mtns, 2 feet of snow NC mtns. This the TV model.....(12KM WRF)

Clap clap clap. Anything further south just wraps everything else further south. I would love to have snow that close to mby.

Last several model runs have done away with that wide sweep out into the Atlantic which keeps the landfall further south. Perhaps it will trend further.