Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

[NCSNOW]

It certainly hasn't kicked Euro's butt for this storm. The GFS had this heading out to sea.

+1. The Euro absoloutly took the gfs to the wood shed.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

+1. The Euro absoloutly took the gfs to the wood shed.

As of now, you are absolutely correct. The Euro wins hands down.......the GFS depiction of this storm has been OTL.

[downeastnc]

I'm at our hunting lease in central Beaufort CO and its pretty windy, in fact its got to be gusting mid 20's and there are a few showers about.

[tnweathernut]

Hearing the Euro ensembles are a central NJ hit. Not a whole lot further north, but I would think this would lessen the impact on the southern mountains, possibly considerably.

[Brick Tamland]

State of Emergency declared for eastern NC.

[BIG FROSTY]

NWS @ Blacksburg, Don't even mention flurries for mountains???

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONE

351 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND

VARIABLE WINDS.

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE

MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH AROUND

10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN

30 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN

SHOWERS. BREEZY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO

25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.

BREEZY AND COOLER WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF RAIN

50 PERCENT.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY WINDY.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY. LOWS

AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.

[jburns]

For central NC this will be a snoozer with some breezes and cooler weather.

In that case, NWS Raliegh is all over it.

• 
  

  Monday

  A slight chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 54. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
  

• 
  

  Monday Night

  Partly cloudy, with a low around 35.
  

• 
  

  Tuesday

  Mostly sunny, with a high near 49.
  

• 
  

  Tuesday Night

  Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.
  

• 
  

  Wednesday

  Mostly sunny, with a high near 53.
  

• 
  

  Wednesday Night

  Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.
  

• 
  

  Thursday

  Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.
  

• 
  

  Thursday Night

  Mostly clear, with a low around 35.
  

• 
  

  Friday

  Sunny, with a high near 57.
  

[jburns]

I can't help but be a bit amused at the back and forth in the mid Atlantic-New York-New England forums. 4 days out there is a lot of arguing over a NJ, NYC, or Long Island hit. It sounds good but when you think about it and the distances involved, it would be like us arguing four days out whether a cane would hit Hatteras, Nags Head or Duck.

[LithiaWx]

For central NC this will be a snoozer with some breezes and cooler weather.

+1 sometimes reality sucks

[pcbjr]

Looking at water vapor and other images - big storm. But - is she even a 'Cane? Looks very aysmetrical.

[DaculaWeather]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV

349 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...

.THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHERN

WEST VIRGINIA...TO INTERACT WITH A STALLING COLD FRONT...AND ITS

ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH

TUESDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...POCAHONTAS...RANDOLPH...WEBSTER COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 10 INCHES. HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE

HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WILL START LATE SUNDAY

NIGHT. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH

TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS...

CAUSING POWER OUTAGES OR FLUCTUATIONS. UNTREATED ROADS MAY

BECOME VERY SLICK ACROSS THE HIGHER WINDWARD TERRAIN.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FROM THE LOWER 30S UPPER VALLEYS...RANGING TO THE

UPPER 20S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

[jburns]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV

349 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...

.THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHERN

WEST VIRGINIA...TO INTERACT WITH A STALLING COLD FRONT...AND ITS

ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH

TUESDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...POCAHONTAS...RANDOLPH...WEBSTER COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 10 INCHES. HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE

HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WILL START LATE SUNDAY

NIGHT. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH

TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS...

CAUSING POWER OUTAGES OR FLUCTUATIONS. UNTREATED ROADS MAY

BECOME VERY SLICK ACROSS THE HIGHER WINDWARD TERRAIN.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FROM THE LOWER 30S UPPER VALLEYS...RANGING TO THE

UPPER 20S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

I'm seriously thinking about making a run to snowshoe. Might be the only decent storm I see all year.

[packbacker]

GFDL finally caved to the GFS, way east....bow to the mighty GFS.

[burgertime]

GFDL finally caved to the GFS, way east....bow to the mighty GFS.

I'm not sure what you mean about the mighty GFS. .... Perhaps this was because I said it looked the Euro was falling to the GFS with the northern landfall...which it didn't. If anything the GFS is falling more inline with the Euro as it ticks more towards a southern landfall compared to going OTS, hitting Maine then Northern NY as it had with Sandy....opposed to the Euro which has stuck to it's guns.

[Dunkman]

The Euro owned every model on this storm there is really no way to argue otherwise. I'm pretty depressed about the non-event for central NC...maybe next time.

[WeatherNC]

So WTF with the name, omitted the storm part, added one part sandy (S), another part hybrid (H), and rolled with the rest of frank minus the r (ankenstein). 10B x X in damages where X is the unknown...

[Met1985]

There is still a good bit of time for everything to get sorted out. I am sure the models will change another 10 times before anything is nailed down. Way to early to really say this will be a non event for NC at all.

[jburns]

There is still a good bit of time for everything to get sorted out. I am sure the models will change another 10 times before anything is nailed down. Way to early to really say this will be a non event for NC at all.

This will be a non event for NC at all.

[MillerA]

wxbrad: Mountain Tweeps I would start preparing for power outages & heavy snow for late Sunday into Monday. Stay tuned! #wncwx" from Brad p

[packbacker]

I'm not sure what you mean about the mighty GFS. .... Perhaps this was because I said it looked the Euro was falling to the GFS with the northern landfall...which it didn't. If anything the GFS is falling more inline with the Euro as it ticks more towards a southern landfall compared to going OTS, hitting Maine then Northern NY as it had with Sandy....opposed to the Euro which has stuck to it's guns.

Lets see what happens...if this storm ends up making landfall NYC or north, in my opinion GFS wins, if its south of central NJ than Euro wins, in between its a tie.

[WeatherNC]

Starting to get a better handle on absolute intensity today with the models, as expected the 930-mid 940 solutions we have seen over the past several days have modified somewhat, best guess at the moment is low 950's into southern-central NJ, maybe Surf City NJ, 947-955 is the envelope, you have to credit the ens means for track, but strength not so much. Example, half the mems into the delmarva low 950's, half into NYC-BOS 950, mean into central NJ 970. NOGAPS is interesting, sub 950 on the 12z run, I said 952.3 into central NJ in the main thread, under could be better served, 947-950 range!

[packbacker]

WeatherNC - why did you say on the main forum you liked that the pressure weakened to 993? That because you hope it means less damage when/if it hits land.

[Met1985]

This will be a non event for NC at all.

Maybe but I will post pics of our first snow this season here in the mountains. Upslope FTW!

[jburns]

Maybe but I will post pics of our first snow this season here in the mountains. Upslope FTW!

A bit of upslope snow for you is pretty much a non event.

[Met1985]

A bit of upslope snow for you is pretty much a non event.

We will see. Hoping for more but the way things have trended more north kind of wondering if we get any moisture in here at all. Watching the 00Z coming in now..

[WeatherNC]

WeatherNC - why did you say on the main forum you liked that the pressure weakened to 993? That because you hope it means less damage when/if it hits land.

0z graphic with 993, inaccuracy 970'ish

[WilkesboroDude]

I'm not throwing out my flurry chance just yet!

[griteater]

We will see. Hoping for more but the way things have trended more north kind of wondering if we get any moisture in here at all. Watching the 00Z coming in now..

00z Canadian has snow beginning to mix in at the highest elevations at hr48

[kvegas-wx]

WSW goes up in central WV for 10-14". Could be double that!

[griteater]

Looks like 00z GFS is bringing it onshore in far north NJ. I swear it seems like Snowshoe, WV has been ground zero for snow for like 80 runs in a row now.