Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

[griteater]

The models have forecasted the slow down pretty well. It's currently being left behind by the trough departing over the northern Atlantic and now the blocking is building in. It will drift towards Florida before being picked up by the frontal system tonight. That's when it get's interesting as the phasing really then begins in earnest. One thing to note, is storms like this (superstorm/perfect storm) tend to strengthen rapidly at times. That means a bend left could do the same. The WSW bend on the EURO/GFDL is something to watch very closely b/c that's probably almost impossible to model with great accuracy in such a rare situation as this. Just when it bends west to wsw and how long this happens will probably be determined on just how rapidly it strengthens. The more rapid, the further south solution. The later, the further out it stays over the ocean before coming inland.

Good analysis, as usual.

Last 3 runs of Euro Ensemble...

00z Thurs - NYC

12z Thurs - S New Jersey

00z Fri - S New Jersey

[Brick Tamland]

12z GFS is taking it way north.

[deltadog03]

EURO is further east this run...My guess its going to be closer to NYC this run

[burgertime]

EURO is further east this run...My guess its going to be closer to NYC this run

Yep looks like it's falling to the GFS now. *After looking at the GFS Euro is still west of the 12z GFS run...and maybe a hair slower?*

[Brick Tamland]

Model madness at its best, or worst, depending on how you look at it.

[burgertime]

@84 it's making a sharp left and appears that the eye will hit New Jersey.

[packbacker]

For as much as the GFS get's bad mouthed it seems like it did fairly well last winter and it kicked Euro's axx for this storm. Looks like NC will get some breezy conditions and some light sprinkles, maybe.

[tnweathernut]

EURO is further east this run...My guess its going to be closer to NYC this run

Can't say it was completely unexpected (still a long ways out and a lot of puzzle pieces in play), but with the hurricane models showing Virginia as ground zero and the Euro showing the southern solution................. I was hopeful for a once in a lifetime event closer to home.

What will be fun (assuming the Euro is in fact caving to the GFS) is watching DT get raked through the coals by people on his FB page. He has been calling the east solutions hogwash for days and blasting anyone who has a differing opinion.

[burgertime]

Wow the turn @96 is almost funny it's so abrupt...like it just hits a brick wall in the Atlantic. This run seems a bit warmer overall.

[DaculaWeather]

It certainly hasn't kicked Euro's butt for this storm. The GFS had this heading out to sea.

[nchighcountrywx]

In the office, all day yesterday and today, there was considerable doubt this was going to play out as it was being hyped up to be.

Still, I would not yet totally rule out a general 3" to 5" snowfall in the NW Mountains.

[deltadog03]

EURO is SAME landfall point as last night 00z run...just a different route...

[burgertime]

Can't say it was completely unexpected (still a long ways out and a lot of puzzle pieces in play), but with the hurricane models showing Virginia as ground zero and the Euro showing the southern solution................. I was hopeful for a once in a lifetime event closer to home.

What will be fun (assuming the Euro is in fact caving to the GFS) is watching DT get raked through the coals by people on his FB page. He has been calling the east solutions hogwash for days and blasting anyone who has a differing opinion.

Interestingly enough the Euro actually hooks Sandy south as it turns left. So it looks like the eye will hit northern NJ but ends up more like Del Marva/southern NJ....someone can correct me if I'm wrong, just what it looks like to me.

[msuwx]

At 96h on Euro, it's made the hard left-hand turn and is on the south Jersey shore....

[deltadog03]

Can't say it was completely unexpected (still a long ways out and a lot of puzzle pieces in play), but with the hurricane models showing Virginia as ground zero and the Euro showing the southern solution................. I was hopeful for a once in a lifetime event closer to home.

What will be fun (assuming the Euro is in fact caving to the GFS) is watching DT get raked through the coals by people on his FB page. He has been calling the east solutions hogwash for days and blasting anyone who has a differing opinion.

EURO is SAME landfall point as last night 00z run...just a different route...

[burgertime]

EURO is SAME landfall point as last night 00z run...just a different route...

Hey Chris, is it me or does this have more of a southern track now once it hits landfall? Are my eyes playing with me?

[burgertime]

@108 it looks like the mountains might turn from snow to freezing rain. Lots of warm air with this. WV appears to be mostly rain.

[calculus1]

At 96h on Euro, it's made the hard left-hand turn and is on the south Jersey shore....

Hi Matt! Congrats on the new baby! Thanks for taking a little time out to offer some play by play on the Euro with the others. Nice to have you around.

[Brick Tamland]

What kind of damage is this run of the Euro showing?

[burgertime]

What kind of damage is this run of the Euro showing?

From northern NC to NY around 3+ inches of rain with higher totals the closer you get to the coast.

[deltadog03]

Hey Chris, is it me or does this have more of a southern track now once it hits landfall? Are my eyes playing with me?

The inland track is a bit further south, but your right...its warmer. this would be like RN/SN to heavy SN for WV then maybe over to RN...The cold 850's are actually in the TN/NC Mtns. outside of mtns, nada...maybe a flake or 2 mixed in.

[tnweathernut]

At 96h on Euro, it's made the hard left-hand turn and is on the south Jersey shore....

Sounds pretty amazing track with the same general entry point into the US that it has shown for many runs in a row now. Unbelievable consistency when you think about it.

I wonder what the odds are for a tropical system to hit the east coast (other than southeast coast), traveling wsw???? I wonder if it has EVER happened?

[MotoWeatherman]

@108 it looks like the mountains might turn from snow to freezing rain. Lots of warm air with this. WV appears to be mostly rain.

I don't know. 850's still look good at hr 120 in WV and NC Mtns. Not as cold as the previous run but cold enough at least at this level.

[griteater]

For as much as the GFS get's bad mouthed it seems like it did fairly well last winter and it kicked Euro's axx for this storm. Looks like NC will get some breezy conditions and some light sprinkles, maybe.

Funny, a jog north to Jersey and the GFS is now the winner. GFS didn't have a clue and wasn't even showing a phase for a while there. As usual, a model blend beats any one point solution.

[tnweathernut]

Funny, a jog north to Jersey and the GFS is now the winner. GFS didn't have a clue and wasn't even showing a phase for a while there. As usual, a model blend beats any one point solution.

I don't totally agree with this. Beyond 4 days I think a blend is wise to run with and has a lot of merit. I have however, witnessed the Euro taking all the other models to the woodshed many times (even when most other models differed). I guess we will see after all is said and done just how good the Euro is.

I can say this, if it's dead on.................or even most realistic in the end, it will be hard betting against it this winter.

[burgertime]

I don't know. 850's still look good at hr 120 in WV and NC Mtns. Not as cold as the previous run but cold enough at least at this level.

Just looked like the thickness didn't support snow? I'll leave it to your expert opinion

[eyewall]

For central NC this will be a snoozer with some breezes and cooler weather.

[MotoWeatherman]

Just looked like the thickness didn't support snow? I'll leave it to your expert opinion

I'm just going off Instant Weather Maps 850 maps. I need to renew my SV for the season to see the other goods. LOL

[griteater]

Euro and GFS show a strong storm that winds down slowly. In that scenario, it would be quite a beast for the coastal areas receiving the onshore flow just to its north. I think a good comparison for that would be the Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962, although that one was colder and farther south...big coastal erosion on the east coast, including the outer banks, and big snows inland.

[AirNelson39]

Just like with phasers during the winter, the models usually 'lose' the storm at this time frame. Just because the models are backing off on the doozer shown earlier does not mean it is less likely now. Remember the 2010 Christmas storm?? All models lost it and came back to it. Don't start panicking...yet.