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Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Landfall in the chesapeake bay at 96 hr on euro. And it's a pretty massive cane......

EDIT: 917mb!!!!!!!!!!! HOLY ****

917 mb? That's ridiculous. The Euro has a bad habit of overintensifying tropical cyclones in the mid latitudes. It has been too low by 20-30 mb many times over the last few years. I'd day no lower than ~940 mb, which is crazy enough lol.

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

000

FLUS42 KGSP 260839 CCA

HWOGSP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

438 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-

270845-

RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-

HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-

SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-

GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-

EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-

POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-

GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-

438 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN

NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HURRICANE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN INTENSE

EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND MOVE ASHORE SOMEWHERE ACROSS

THE MID-ATLANTIC OR NEW ENGLAND STATES EITHER LATE MONDAY OR

TUESDAY.

WHILE THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST

THE STORM WILL MOVE...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE ALMOST CERTAIN

TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP

OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS MONDAY...LASTING INTO TUESDAY

NIGHT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER MOUNTAIN

ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY NIGHT WIDESPREAD FREEZING

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY OUT

ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN

TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SNOW

SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE TENNESSEE LINE. IF THE STORM MOVES

ASHORE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THEN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UPSLOPE

SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS

THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

$$

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

It looked to me like the Euro was just a tad north and it makes a difference for folks hoping to see some flakes in NC. Here is most expansive the snow map gets for NC from the 00z Euro run.

XmAJm.png

Figures it would back off as the zero hour gets closer. The weird thing is the track from the NHC seems furter south than before, which I thought would give us more chance of snow here, not less.

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msuwx

msuwx

Posted
Posted

What an amazing meteorological occurrence to see unfold before our eyes. Amazing stuff. To have anybody in the region see any flakes fly in late October from the phasing of a pure tropical system and piece of arctic energy..... beyond amazing.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

What an amazing meteorological occurrence to see unfold before our eyes. Amazing stuff. To have anybody in the region see any flakes fly in late October from the phasing of a pure tropical system and piece of arctic energy..... beyond amazing.

I agree. It would be awesome just to see any snow at all from this. So, can we call it a snowcane?

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

What an amazing meteorological occurrence to see unfold before our eyes. Amazing stuff. To have anybody in the region see any flakes fly in late October from the phasing of a pure tropical system and piece of arctic energy..... beyond amazing.

I agree completely. Even if we don't see any flakes, I still find this storm to be amazing. I believe you just have to be a weather geek to appreciate it.

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

I know nchighcountrywx posted GSPs HWO but here is part of the overnight AFD:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 130 AM FRI...OBVIOUSLY THE BIGGEST FACTOR IN THE EXTENDED

RANGE WILL BE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

THAT RESULTS FROM THE MERGER OF T.C. SANDY AND A STRONG DIGGING NRN

STREAM TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN

AND BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NW AND EVENTUALLY WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE 12 UTC ECWMF TURNS THE T.C. AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE

DIGGING ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS BRINGS A POWERFUL SFC LOW

ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY LATE MONDAY. THE GFS DOESN/T PICK UP THE

CYCLONE UNTIL A SECOND WAVE DIGS INTO THE TROUGH. THIS DELAYS

LANDFALL BY ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND

BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TRACK IS SOMEWHERE

BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MORE

REASONABLE COURSE TO TAKE. THE BOMBING SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE

ACCOMPANIED BY AN INTENSE UPPER LOW. THE GFS H5 HEIGHTS FALL TO 520

DM OVER LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING FOR EXAMPLE.

QUITE A VARIETY OF WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE

SRN APPALACHIANS EVEN THROUGH WE WILL BE ON THE /DRY/ SIDE OF THE

CIRCULATION. INCREASING NW FLOW AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW

FREEZING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A PERIOD OF NW FLOW SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT

THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT WINDS MAY SUPPORT HIGH WIND WARNING

CRITERIA WINDS STARTING LATE MONDAY AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY

MORNING. AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE IS A GOOD BET SUNDAY NIGHT AT HIGHER

MTN ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE TN LINE. MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS

ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE

EVEN OUT INTO THE FOOTHILLS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ALSO BE ON

THE INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE DRYING

WILL CERTAINLY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER. IT/S TOO EARLY TO

ISSUE ANY PRODUCTS FOR THESE VARIOUS EVENTS...AND CONFIDENCE ON THE

TIMING STILL ISN/T GREAT AS CAN BE SEEN WITH THE GFS/ECMWF

DIFFERENCES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS ISSUES OF FIRE

DANGER...SNOWFALL...STRONG WINDS AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE

HWO.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Eric Holthaus ‏@WSJweather

HPC: "MODELS SHOW PRESSURE WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NJ/NY COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURR)"

The pressures the models are running are pretty much impossible, the lowest ever recorded in a baroclinic low in the USA is 955 mb in the midwest a few years ago. The Perfect Storm in 1991 hit 972 mb, the Storm of the Centurty in 93 hit 960mb. I would think 955 would be just about the extreme limit it can hit on the low end and more lkey wont get much below 965mb but you never know anything is possible I suppose.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

The pressures the models are running are pretty much impossible, the lowest ever recorded in a baroclinic low in the USA is 955 mb in the midwest a few years ago. The Perfect Storm in 1991 hit 972 mb, the Storm of the Centurty in 93 hit 960mb. I would think 955 would be just about the extreme limit it can hit on the low end and more lkey wont get much below 965mb but you never know anything is possible I suppose.

I think your right too, isn't that what the GFS/Euro/Uk are all showing (960'ish)?

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

I think winds are going to be a factor no matter what for practically all of NC.

6z GFS came in south of 00z which had an odd look last night. 6z has the bullseye in northern NJ.

And the 6z GFS actually does a loop with the storm and goes back over water a bit and than hits NJ/Ny again.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

WLOS is talking up the threat of snow. They say the latest models JUST changed tonight. Possible snow Sunday or early next week.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see snow outside the mountains. With such a strong system, CAA will be fast and furious and if there is any appreciable precipitation across areas in that corridor of coldest air somewhere around the nc/va border to the north and/or south..snow very well could fall.

Probably will be a narrow corridor but I think its possible..based on 850mb, 925mb, and surface temps...especially the euro..which shows temps in the 30s within north and south of the nc border..the 12z run was especially interesting/promising there. 0z run wasn't quite as promising, mainly due to less precip it would seem to me in these areas but still possible.

Track and how much precip there is, is really important. If the track is too far north, obviously precip will be less and If the precip is light..not sure it can overcome the low level temps and probably just a cold rain. However, if it is further south and if it's one of these cases where there is a band that sets up or just general moderate precip in that corridor of coldest air, I think there is a chance for sure. Likely wont' last for very long and accumulations won't be much.

At the least it will be a cold rain for sure....but just to have a chance of any snow this year, with a hurricane/post hurricane system is really amazing.

Strange to be talking about a hurricane and snow at the same time. Just wish it was here lol

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Essentially the storm's slowing increases the chances for a more southern capture, correct? Or is the slowdown reflecting a lessened interation with the ocean low already?

Look at the NHC track the slowdown is/was expected and then as the SW winds pick up with the approaching trough it speeds up which is noticable in the forecast track as it approaches Hatteras and is clearly accelerating. I do however think a recurve further south is possible maybe even come in as far south as Hatteras up to Va beach moving up over Va into SW PA like some models had earlier on. Still the Delmar still looks good for landfall and I use that term loosely....

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted

Essentially the storm's slowing increases the chances for a more southern capture, correct? Or is the slowdown reflecting a lessened interation with the ocean low already?

The models have forecasted the slow down pretty well. It's currently being left behind by the trough departing over the northern Atlantic and now the blocking is building in. It will drift towards Florida before being picked up by the frontal system tonight. That's when it get's interesting as the phasing really then begins in earnest. One thing to note, is storms like this (superstorm/perfect storm) tend to strengthen rapidly at times. That means a bend left could do the same. The WSW bend on the EURO/GFDL is something to watch very closely b/c that's probably almost impossible to model with great accuracy in such a rare situation as this. Just when it bends west to wsw and how long this happens will probably be determined on just how rapidly it strengthens. The more rapid, the further south solution. The later, the further out it stays over the ocean before coming inland.

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