WilkesboroDude Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That would be epic lots of trees down this way leaning from Irene so it wouldnt take much, even 50 knts would be bad and then the duration would prolly be the real problem, the meltdown up in the NE forum if this thing did that would be insane. NE forum mods delete GFDL images. They did not like what it had to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 NE forum mods delete GFDL images. They did not like what it had to say. Word to the wise, stay out of the NE subs, better for a read rather than posting in... Food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah... I don't think they want Georgia peeps in there talking about this, though... It's just going to get us cold anyways.... hahaha! Your right...hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ray's Weather Center Flurries in the Foothills are not out of the question but are not in the forecast at this time. 4 minutes ago · Like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I have a hard time believing it's going to snow anywhere other than the mountain right now, even the mountains will be right on the cusp of snow or rain. My reasons are hurricanes bring warm tropical air from top down, sun angle is still rather high, and we have never seen a storm do what the models are spitting out. With such a big system it's hard to think that the cold will win over the warm air especially when we are looking at a sub 950 storm. I don't think any model is going to get it right we are transitioning from early fall to middle of winter in a couple of days. Models are in my opinion overdoing the cold air and are ignoring the warm tropical air. But thats why we have historic storms so people like me the doubters can be made humbled again. On a side note this winter should be a doozy we are seeing the potential of what most are saying that this winter will be fun, not like last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Word to the wise, stay out of the NE subs, better for a read rather than posting in... Food for thought. Yes I learned that the other day just looking at some of a run on the GFS and posted and got jumped on. No big deal. I left and have not posted anything back up there since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I have a hard time believing it's going to snow anywhere other than the mountain right now, even the mountains will be right on the cusp of snow or rain. My reasons are hurricanes bring warm tropical air from top down, sun angle is still rather high, and we have never seen a storm do what the models are spitting out. With such a big system it's hard to think that the cold will win over the warm air especially when we are looking at a sub 950 storm. I don't think any model is going to get it right we are transitioning from early fall to middle of winter in a couple of days. Models are in my opinion overdoing the cold air and are ignoring the warm tropical air. But thats why we have historic storms so people like me the doubters can be made humbled again. On a side note this winter should be a doozy we are seeing the potential of what most are saying that this winter will be fun, not like last year! Could be wrong here, but that is why places like New York City will see rain over snow. We are so far south-west away from Sandy, cold air can rush in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I have a hard time believing it's going to snow anywhere other than the mountain right now, even the mountains will be right on the cusp of snow or rain. My reasons are hurricanes bring warm tropical air from top down, sun angle is still rather high, and we have never seen a storm do what the models are spitting out. With such a big system it's hard to think that the cold will win over the warm air especially when we are looking at a sub 950 storm. I don't think any model is going to get it right we are transitioning from early fall to middle of winter in a couple of days. Models are in my opinion overdoing the cold air and are ignoring the warm tropical air. But thats why we have historic storms so people like me the doubters can be made humbled again. On a side note this winter should be a doozy we are seeing the potential of what most are saying that this winter will be fun, not like last year! I don't really disagree with you but one thing that I keep wondering is this, has there ever been a storm like this modeled? I think this will be one where scientist and meteorologist learn a lot from this. There is no telling what it will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yes I learned that the other day just looking at some of a run on the GFS and posted and got jumped on. No big deal. I left and have not posted anything back up there since. I learned it the hard way last year, got lit one night and ventured over... Handed out TO's to most of the crew, CTblizz, ChrisM, Fozz, yeah, it was pretty epic and I had some explaining to do the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Robert has told me for two years that somebody would get a storm of the century that would be talked about for . Talked to him today and he said this might be it but too early to tell. So much can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't really disagree with you but one thing that I keep wondering is this, has there ever been a storm like this modeled? I think this will be one where scientist and meteorologist learn a lot from this. There is no telling what it will do. I may be wrong here but i dont think there has been one inland. I think most have ended up out in the Atlantic, but I really cannot remember a single storm (other than the old GFS 300+ hr fantasy storm)haha, that has shown such a extreme solution. Like Brandon said keep you guard up to some extreme weather that is on the way for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I learned it the hard way last year, got lit one night and ventured over... Handed out TO's to most of the crew, CTblizz, ChrisM, Fozz, yeah, it was pretty epic and I had some explaining to do the next day. Lol ya that would have been hilarious. Ah The SE is my crew. Would only want to post my best stuff here anyway. Anyway we are getting loaded up on Firewood here at about 3500 feet. We have highs around 40 degrees and lows in the mid 20s right now. With the possibility of snow next week we are starting to get prepared mildly; especially since there are still a lot of leaves on the trees. If it were to snow it would be a mess. A very heavy wet snow. IF it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Thunder snow a good possibility for someone, and bands of snow like when watching a hurricane make landfall, pushing up against the mountains. This has WVA written all over it!! If the models were to verify forget the plows you will need a CAT 973 front end loader. Robert has told me for two years that somebody would get a storm of the century that would be talked about for . Talked to him today and he said this might be it but too early to tell. So much can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I would imagine this type of track, hitting the coast at 929 mb, would destroy the coast first and the mountains next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 NAM getting kind of close to ENC... 54hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F26%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=051&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is from the 18z GFS. The diverging arrows off the mid-atlantic coast show the strong upper level divergence at 250 mb in combo location of right entrance region of strong polar jet extending into E Canada and left exit region of subtropical jet over Florida (as others have mentioned). Strong upper divergence supports lowering surface pressures. The divergence weakens as the polar jet retreats to the north and the storm heads inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 WLOS is talking up the threat of snow. They say the latest models JUST changed tonight. Possible snow Sunday or early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 my RPM model gets pretty close to NC/SC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 my RPM model gets pretty close to NC/SC as well. Sounds like a big time outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sounds like a big time outlier. Let me clarify that....The rain/wind shield gets a bit inland. More so for NC than SC. Its not really that much of an outlier. EURO is pretty close to what this is showing. RPM only goes out 48hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Cone shifts south...North Carolina in the cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Mark Reynolds WJHL in the Tricities, TN mentioned the possibility of accumulating snow for ktri. Interesting to mention it this many days in advance. Also said they would have to pull out the OLD records to see if they can find any measurable snow in the month of October. Pretty incredible when you stop and think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Cone shifts south...North Carolina in the cone. NC has been in the cone for several advisories now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Mark Reynolds WJHL in the Tricities, TN mentioned the possibility of accumulating snow for ktri. Interesting to mention it this many days in advance. Also said they would have to pull out the OLD records to see if they can find any measurable snow in the month of October. Pretty incredible when you stop and think about it. Raysweather did the same. They need to mention it. Local news is slow on the weekends. The workweek could be disrupted and everyone will rush to the stores on Monday causing a huge mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NC has been in the cone for several advisories now. Point is they shifted the cone well south. Boston excluded. Here is the old cone. http://cdn2-b.examin...8226_7546_1.JPG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 971 mb on the drop with 35 kt. winds...had 964 extrapolated around the center. From the pass it looks like there's some tilt to the center (not surprising) and a pretty broad area where the lowest pressures are. Winds look pretty weak based on where they've sampled so far...I think the highest FL is 74 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GGEM way OTS. Hit's NS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GGEM way OTS. Hit's NS Throw out GGEM too. I don't like it. No, but honestly, if EURO trends north, then these south-west model guidance's are out to lunch most likely. 0z suit was suppose to have special, added data to them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GGEM way OTS. Hit's NS How do you have the model that quickly? I usually get them quickly and I only have hour 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Brad Panovich Starting to a few models members throw out a few flurries for Charlotte Tuesday night. Not sold yet but worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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