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Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
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That would be epic lots of trees down this way leaning from Irene so it wouldnt take much, even 50 knts would be bad and then the duration would prolly be the real problem, the meltdown up in the NE forum if this thing did that would be insane.

NE forum mods delete GFDL images. They did not like what it had to say.

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

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I have a hard time believing it's going to snow anywhere other than the mountain right now, even the mountains will be right on the cusp of snow or rain. My reasons are hurricanes bring warm tropical air from top down, sun angle is still rather high, and we have never seen a storm do what the models are spitting out. With such a big system it's hard to think that the cold will win over the warm air especially when we are looking at a sub 950 storm. I don't think any model is going to get it right we are transitioning from early fall to middle of winter in a couple of days. Models are in my opinion overdoing the cold air and are ignoring the warm tropical air.

But thats why we have historic storms so people like me the doubters can be made humbled again. On a side note this winter should be a doozy we are seeing the potential of what most are saying that this winter will be fun, not like last year!

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

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I have a hard time believing it's going to snow anywhere other than the mountain right now, even the mountains will be right on the cusp of snow or rain. My reasons are hurricanes bring warm tropical air from top down, sun angle is still rather high, and we have never seen a storm do what the models are spitting out. With such a big system it's hard to think that the cold will win over the warm air especially when we are looking at a sub 950 storm. I don't think any model is going to get it right we are transitioning from early fall to middle of winter in a couple of days. Models are in my opinion overdoing the cold air and are ignoring the warm tropical air.

But thats why we have historic storms so people like me the doubters can be made humbled again. On a side note this winter should be a doozy we are seeing the potential of what most are saying that this winter will be fun, not like last year!

Could be wrong here, but that is why places like New York City will see rain over snow. We are so far south-west away from Sandy, cold air can rush in.

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burgertime

burgertime

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I have a hard time believing it's going to snow anywhere other than the mountain right now, even the mountains will be right on the cusp of snow or rain. My reasons are hurricanes bring warm tropical air from top down, sun angle is still rather high, and we have never seen a storm do what the models are spitting out. With such a big system it's hard to think that the cold will win over the warm air especially when we are looking at a sub 950 storm. I don't think any model is going to get it right we are transitioning from early fall to middle of winter in a couple of days. Models are in my opinion overdoing the cold air and are ignoring the warm tropical air.

But thats why we have historic storms so people like me the doubters can be made humbled again. On a side note this winter should be a doozy we are seeing the potential of what most are saying that this winter will be fun, not like last year!

I don't really disagree with you but one thing that I keep wondering is this, has there ever been a storm like this modeled? I think this will be one where scientist and meteorologist learn a lot from this. There is no telling what it will do.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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Yes I learned that the other day just looking at some of a run on the GFS and posted and got jumped on. No big deal. I left and have not posted anything back up there since.

I learned it the hard way last year, got lit one night and ventured over... Handed out TO's to most of the crew, CTblizz, ChrisM, Fozz, yeah, it was pretty epic and I had some explaining to do the next day. :bag:

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

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I don't really disagree with you but one thing that I keep wondering is this, has there ever been a storm like this modeled? I think this will be one where scientist and meteorologist learn a lot from this. There is no telling what it will do.

I may be wrong here but i dont think there has been one inland. I think most have ended up out in the Atlantic, but I really cannot remember a single storm (other than the old GFS 300+ hr fantasy storm)haha, that has shown such a extreme solution. Like Brandon said keep you guard up to some extreme weather that is on the way for someone.

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Met1985

Met1985

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I learned it the hard way last year, got lit one night and ventured over... Handed out TO's to most of the crew, CTblizz, ChrisM, Fozz, yeah, it was pretty epic and I had some explaining to do the next day. :bag:

Lol ya that would have been hilarious. Ah The SE is my crew. Would only want to post my best stuff here anyway. Anyway we are getting loaded up on Firewood here at about 3500 feet. We have highs around 40 degrees and lows in the mid 20s right now. With the possibility of snow next week we are starting to get prepared mildly; especially since there are still a lot of leaves on the trees. If it were to snow it would be a mess. A very heavy wet snow. IF it happened.

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

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Thunder snow a good possibility for someone, and bands of snow like when watching a hurricane make landfall, pushing up against the mountains. This has WVA written all over it!! If the models were to verify forget the plows you will need a CAT 973 front end loader.

Robert has told me for two years that somebody would get a storm of the century that would be talked about for . Talked to him today and he said this might be it but too early to tell. So much can change

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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NAM getting kind of close to ENC... 54hrs

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F26%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=051&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

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griteater

griteater

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This is from the 18z GFS. The diverging arrows off the mid-atlantic coast show the strong upper level divergence at 250 mb in combo location of right entrance region of strong polar jet extending into E Canada and left exit region of subtropical jet over Florida (as others have mentioned). Strong upper divergence supports lowering surface pressures. The divergence weakens as the polar jet retreats to the north and the storm heads inland.

divh.png

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

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Mark Reynolds WJHL in the Tricities, TN mentioned the possibility of accumulating snow for ktri. Interesting to mention it this many days in advance. Also said they would have to pull out the OLD records to see if they can find any measurable snow in the month of October. Pretty incredible when you stop and think about it.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

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Mark Reynolds WJHL in the Tricities, TN mentioned the possibility of accumulating snow for ktri. Interesting to mention it this many days in advance. Also said they would have to pull out the OLD records to see if they can find any measurable snow in the month of October. Pretty incredible when you stop and think about it.

Raysweather did the same. They need to mention it. Local news is slow on the weekends. The workweek could be disrupted and everyone will rush to the stores on Monday causing a huge mess...

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Dunkman

Dunkman

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971 mb on the drop with 35 kt. winds...had 964 extrapolated around the center. From the pass it looks like there's some tilt to the center (not surprising) and a pretty broad area where the lowest pressures are. Winds look pretty weak based on where they've sampled so far...I think the highest FL is 74 kts.

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