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Sandy Obs and Banter thread - fall 2012


mappy

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DC has a variety of extreme weather, but since it doesn't happen very often, we generally aren't as prepared for it. We don't have the snow removal capabilities of northern states and our landscape/power infrastructure is more susceptible to winds than the same in the plains.

Yeah, I agree with this, especially about not being quite as prepared here. Part of that is the large metro area population, and the fact that we've got people coming from all parts of the country (and world, for that matter!), and so might not be used to some weather events that have happened. On the other hand, I heard comments from some people after the Feb. 5-6, 2010 event on the order of "if this were Buffalo, this would have been a breeze (to clear up, etc.)." The people were not really joking, and I thought it was kind of unfair. While I'd agree that some place like Buffalo is much better equipped to handle big snows and experiences it more often...I'd wager that any big metro area that gets 20-30" snow in a 24 hour period is going to be crippled for some amount of time. Then, followed by a blizzard 5 days later. And the fact is, it would have made absolutely no sense for the DC region to go overboard in purchasing the amount of snow equipment they'd use for a place like Buffalo in response to what's probably a once in a lifetime winter here. Sure, we'll see the 20-incher again (knock on wood!), but that doesn't mean we need 100x more snow removal equipment because most years it will be used very lightly and would be a waste.

It's like the old joke of "back in my day, we walked uphill both ways in a blizzard but they never closed school for us!" An element of truth to how easily things close here when there's a trace of snow. But thinking back to when I grew up in northeast Ohio, while we endured our share of still having school in some adverse conditions, I also remember many snow days off. Especially during 1976-77 and 1977-78.

The power infrastructure is really a problem around here.

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Just saw a wind gust report on News 4. Ballanger Creek, MD 66mph. I thought that some of them overnight had to be up in that range.

Yeah, it seems everyone thinks this storm was a dud. I thought it was much worse up in Frederick than the derecho (which we really didn't get IMHO). Most 65+ wind gusts not out of southern MD seemed to be in the Frederick to Gaithersburg corridor. I met with the roofer today to put up tarps...half my roof is a loss. At least 5 other homes hear me had shingles also stripped down to the wood. I had two uprooted trees adjacent to my property (that weren't weak Bradford Pears). Of course, the Pears are split all over the community including one down the road that snapped in half at the trunk.

While it was bad between 8 & 11 the worst was after midnight. The 66 mph in our backyard sure seems accurate to me. Thought the storm was amazing and also hope to never see another wind storm again.

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Well, that brings up an interesting point. If someplace gets more severe weather, but people get used to it, is it extreme?

No, it really isn't. At least in relative terms. 110 degree weather means nothing to someone living in the SW but good grief, if it happened in Maine it would freak everybody out.

And I second the point about what an area is prepared for. 12 inches of snow in Atlanta is crippling but certainly not in Boston. We used to get down to -20 in rockies on a regular basis. So cold that the inside of your nose would freeze when you breathed or a tear would glue your eyelashes together. It wasn't extreme at all to me because it was "normal" but if it happened in San Diego it would be crushing.

So this brings up the difference between extreme and anomalous. Anomalous is extreme to those that live there. But anomalous weather happens equally in just about every state. Then there is extreme weather for anybody anywhere. Hurricanes, tornadoes, and powerful thunderstorms are really the only 3 events that are universally extreme.

A historic ice storm like the 1998 ice storm in canada would count too but but a 1" or less ice storm doesn't really count. Blizzards are probably in the extreme category but they can happen in a large area of the country. DC gets more blizzards than anywhere in the midwest or northern plains because of the Atlantic and potential for a noreaster. So when it comes to actual blizzards the east coast from VA-ME is much more prone than just about anywhere else.

So if we want to really drill it down, landfalling hurricanes and F2 or greater tornadoes are really the only universally extreme weather events. Hurricanes don't happen on a regular basis and they are spread out over 1000's of miles of coastline and 10 or so states. FL would take the crown here and TX second.

Big tornadoes have their "alley" so that would take the crown. OK I would assume is the winner but Texas gets alot of them too. So if you want to experience the most universally extreme weather I would think TX is the place to be. 2nd most landfalling hurricanes along with a good # of tornadoes. They also get some serious heat, BIG thunderstorms, occasional high impact ice event, exceptional droughts, and decent snow every now and then.

But then you ask yourself, "If I lived in TX would I experience the most extreme weather in the US?". Not really. At least in my opionion.

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That's not a good comparison though. Sandy was phasing into a trough with jet energy. Night and day compared to a normal landfalling cat 1. The winds were there and easily could have pounded us. They stayed off the surface though. The inversion proved to be a protective layer from the worst winds. And I'm thankful. I'm tired of dealing with tree damage and long duration power outages. It's become so commonplace around here that I fully expected to be cleaning up yet another mess while in the dark for 2+ days. I think we've turned the corner for a few years until the canopy becomes weak again in new places.

I just thought the land friction would have dampened some of the wind gusts here as opposed to Jersey/NY in which the winds were coming right off the atlantic. Sounds like there's more to it, though. In any case, I agree, I'm glad we still have power. The wind gusts were enough to keep the storm interesting without being too destructive here.

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Was driving home from Virginia beach last night and as I was coming up route 15 I encountered road closures due to Goose creek flooding. Looks like it crested at 19ft....18ft is major flooding. All time crest was 32ft...could not imagine that destruction.

I tried driving to Annapolis from Calvert County and also ran into road closures and detours. I got stopped twice and the second time when rt 2 was closed took the round about detour.

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The annual leesburg event

BTW-- did you have input into that CWG "Was Sandy overhyped?" post?

Again, that CWG forecast graphic from Sunday was spectacularly correct for what happened with Sandy (as was the original LWX warnings/impact statements from Sunday). The Monday forecasts were a tiny bit less accurate with the bump-up or reference to bump-up in wind speeds, but overall, Sanday was a well-forecasted event.

The only legitimate critiques of the forecasts have been centered around the duration of highest winds, but I think the models actually did very well with showing a 4-6 hour window of really strong winds slightly aloft. The human mets understandably added a buffer on either side of the modeled time-frame of damaging gusts (more so on the back-side maybe). But, two or three hours more of the higher gusts still wouldn't have knocked out the number transformers that the Derecho did.

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  • 1 month later...

http://www.erh.noaa....20121030_Sandy/

LWX's Sandy summary has been up for awhile. If you just looked at the graphics and had a general understanding of DC area weather history, but didn't experience the storm yourself, you probably would have assumed the area was severely impacted by the storm. 6-10" of rain? 50-70+ mph gusts covering the entire metro area? 3-6' storm surge on area shores? These stats line up pretty well with Hurricane Connie for the region.

For all the reasons discussed in here, we managed to avoid a huge impact despite the pretty significant stats.

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