usedtobe Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 My comments earlier probably weren't the best. I just saw so many people acting like it was the end of the world in the leadup then running with every rumor last night it's hard to understand how it betters the science to be like that. Issues are with a relatively small number of people who are outrageous in social media etc. I'm 100% aware that places north of the center got crushed with surge. Also, a 4-8" general rainfall with ~60 mph gusts is nothing to sneeze about here. It didn't take long for the posts praising the forecasters (by other forecaster) to come out. I want to see someone write a post about how amazing modeling is. lol, it is pretty amazing. I kind of chuckle when I think of back on eastern or write when people would say they didn't need models to forecast a storm just the pattern. This storm would never have been forecast back in the mid 70s until it was too late. No forecaster could have forecast it without the models. That said, there are times when the models can lead you down the path to perdition...the boxer storm. I've been toying with going on facebook but then I might get even goofier than I am as most of the practitioners seem to go off the deep end often trying to get more views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Same for DC gov. Randy is going to cry, i hope his hangover is gone by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Some really good discussion in here the past few days regarding potentials -- and no hype, at least that I read. Our subforum is one of the best for solid analysis, realistic expectations, and controlled weenieism. Wes is the voice of reason here. One of the most important posters during the winter when things are looking exciting. All of our red taggers are great and then we get daily pop-ins from folks like Coastal and ORH when we need them most. I've spent little time in the other subforums but I did quite a bit this past week because of guys like Coastal. I've never seen such rampant weeniesm going on. I hope the MA subforum never gets that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I haven't experienced anything that has taken months/years to recover from. And I would not ever want to experience something like that. That would mean something on the lines of losing your home and damn near everything in it, having to start over. Or having your neighborhood rendered uninhabitable. Katrina-like, if you will. Would be interesting from a meteorological standpoint, but absolutely no thanks! I'd rather deal with a big snowstorm/blizzard, or something like this current event, and be "inconvenienced" for a day to several days, but be back mostly to normal within a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I haven't experienced anything that has taken months/years to recover from. I haven't recovered from winter of 11-12 yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 And I would not ever want to experience something like that. That would mean something on the lines of losing your home and damn near everything in it, having to start over. Or having your neighborhood rendered uninhabitable. Katrina-like, if you will. Would be interesting from a meteorological standpoint, but absolutely no thanks! I'd rather deal with a big snowstorm/blizzard, or something like this current event, and be "inconvenienced" for a day to several days, but be back mostly to normal within a week. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I haven't recovered from winter of 11-12 yet. lol, actually I haven't yet either. That was awful. I think the gamblers fallacy applied to last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Our subforum is one of the best for solid analysis, realistic expectations, and controlled weenieism. Wes is the voice of reason here. One of the most important posters during the winter when things are looking exciting. All of our red taggers are great and then we get daily pop-ins from folks like Coastal and ORH when we need them most. I've spent little time in the other subforums but I did quite a bit this past week because of guys like Coastal. I've never seen such rampant weeniesm going on. I hope the MA subforum never gets that way. This is pretty good subforum with some of the enthusiasts too. Ian and Matt are usually spot on. I do however miss BBoy as he offered lol with some of his outlandish forecast claims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Balt got the pressure record. DC missed it by a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Agreed. Yeah. And, I'll admit I was getting really worried about this event as the weekend progressed. Really worried. Not outrageously so, but I was totally anticipating huge power outages for many days to over a week, big time flooding (which some areas did receive) and a lot of damage. Thank goodness it wasn't like that...bad enough, but I'm breathing a bit of a sigh of relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Balt got the pressure record. DC missed it by a bit. OK. My stepmom up in Philly said she recorded a pressure of 28.21" (955mb, if I have that correctly converted), and the center pretty much crossed Philly I think after it came ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 lol, it is pretty amazing. I kind of chuckle when I think of back on eastern or write when people would say they didn't need models to forecast a storm just the pattern. This storm would never have been forecast back in the mid 70s until it was too late. No forecaster could have forecast it without the models. That said, there are times when the models can lead you down the path to perdition...the boxer storm. I've been toying with going on facebook but then I might get even goofier than I am as most of the practitioners seem to go off the deep end often trying to get more views. For the most part even the really deep pressures no one expected to verify ended up happening.. Maybe not the hwrf. Of course just when you think the models are good they bust... Probably for our first big snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Yeah. And, I'll admit I was getting really worried about this event as the weekend progressed. Really worried. Not outrageously so, but I was totally anticipating huge power outages for many days to over a week, big time flooding (which some areas did receive) and a lot of damage. Thank goodness it wasn't like that...bad enough, but I'm breathing a bit of a sigh of relief. I don't know much (just a hobbyist), but just from experience around here I didn't think being on the southern side of a minimal hurricane was going to be conducive to too many 60+ mph wind gusts. I was kind of skeptical as far as that's concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Just got word from my brother that his bay front beach condo in Ocean City is a total loss. At least 2 feet of water into the structure. Many (said he saw at least 50) sunken boats in the canals and bay. Rt.1 in Fenwick still closed. Flooding is unreal. Truly a tragic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Of course just when you think the models are good they bust... Probably for our first big snow threat. I thought this was supposed to be our first big snow threat! At least according to Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I don't know much (just a hobbyist), but just from experience around here I didn't think being on the southern side of a minimal hurricane was going to be conducive to too many 60+ mph wind gusts. I was kind of skeptical as far as that's concerned. Probably generally true, but I think this was a different kind of beast. Besides, here in MoCo, where every time a leaf rustles the power goes out somewhere, you worry about any kind of strong wind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 For the most part even the really deep pressures no one expected to verify ended up happening.. Maybe not the hwrf. Of course just when you think the models are good they bust... Probably for our first big snow threat. Let's hope not. We need a big snowstorm to verify so Jason will want to keep me another year.... PLus I don't want to get beat up on CWG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Just saw a wind gust report on News 4. Ballanger Creek, MD 66mph. I thought that some of them overnight had to be up in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 One quick question -- just glanced at current radar, and Sandy's "residual spin" is still pretty visible between the East Coast and the Great Lakes (though much less pronounced). Was the impressive precipitation shield that came ashore last night supposed to break up so quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 This storm really got me pumped up for winter and snow tracking season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 One quick question -- just glanced at current radar, and Sandy's "residual spin" is still pretty visible between the East Coast and the Great Lakes (though much less pronounced). Was the impressive precipitation shield that came ashore last night supposed to break up so quickly? I think so, most of the heavy rain was supposed to be over by this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 This is pretty good subforum with some of the enthusiasts too. Ian and Matt are usually spot on. I do however miss BBoy as he offered lol with some of his outlandish forecast claims. I totally agree. Overall it really is top notch and quite entertaining at times. I'm really glad I stumbled into eastern back in 06. It's been a game changer for me irt deepening my understanding of weather. I've been an enthusiast for as long as I can remember. I used to call 983-1212 three times a day when I was in elementary school (wonder how many on here remember that #. lol) I can't believe how much I've learned by being a regular here. I kinda miss bb in a really weird way too. The entertainment value more than offset the irritating side until near the end of his tenure. Too bad he had to go over the top and off the deep end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I think so, most of the heavy rain was supposed to be over by this time. I was curious about the same thing...thanks for verifying that. On a related topic, was the wind expected to die down so quickly and (relatively) early late last night? Maybe LWX was playing it safe, but even in the evening forecasts and statements they were highlighting the strongest winds to be from yesterday evening through this morning, with gradual weakining throughout today. I'm not criticizing in any way, but just wondering something changed in that regard which was not expected initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I used to call 983-1212 three times a day when I was in elementary school (wonder how many on here remember that #. lol) Was 931-1212 in Cleveland when I was growing up. And yes, I admit to calling that number quite often when a snow event was imminent! That and listening to the weather radio I had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I don't know much (just a hobbyist), but just from experience around here I didn't think being on the southern side of a minimal hurricane was going to be conducive to too many 60+ mph wind gusts. I was kind of skeptical as far as that's concerned. That's not a good comparison though. Sandy was phasing into a trough with jet energy. Night and day compared to a normal landfalling cat 1. The winds were there and easily could have pounded us. They stayed off the surface though. The inversion proved to be a protective layer from the worst winds. And I'm thankful. I'm tired of dealing with tree damage and long duration power outages. It's become so commonplace around here that I fully expected to be cleaning up yet another mess while in the dark for 2+ days. I think we've turned the corner for a few years until the canopy becomes weak again in new places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I was curious about the same thing...thanks for verifying that. On a related topic, was the wind expected to die down so quickly and (relatively) early late last night? Maybe LWX was playing it safe, but even in the evening forecasts and statements they were highlighting the strongest winds to be from yesterday evening through this morning, with gradual weakining throughout today. I'm not criticizing in any way, but just wondering something changed in that regard which was not expected initially. Yes and no, as the storm got right near us the winds were expected to weaken as the eye got bigger. Then on the back side the winds on the models were only forecast to be 40 kts at 925 mb at least on the 18Z prog from yesterday. With a stable airmass and lots of clouds to limit mixing, that made the top end probably below 40, more like 25 to 30. The earlier progs kept the winds stronger at 925 which would have made this morning breezy. This is all predicated on my memory which isn't as good as it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTHunter Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Posted this on my FB page... and after seeing some of the comments here, figured it fit here too. Between the mess east of us on the coast, the outright devastation to our north and the blizzard that is still going on to our west... central Maryland somehow dodged the Big One. Yes, we have scattered reports of flooding, 380,000 without power at last report and two storm related deaths, but overall I'd have to say I could actually hear a collective sigh this morning in our area. On a side note... I've seen some comments here and there(even on my weather forums, mostly by newbs with only 5-6 posts) calling this storm a bust. There's a big difference between being a bust and just getting lucky. A) We're lucky we had the Derecho come through and weed out all the deadwood before this storm. The storm actually accelerated as it was making landfall and didn't park itself over us for 24 hours, otherwise the forecasts(especially the Euro) were spot on. C) Lastly, I don't think you could convince anyone on the coast from North Carolina to Maine that this was "Nothing". While the final reports are nowhere near complete, hundreds of weather records have been broken, billions of dollars in damages have been suffered and as of the last reports I've seen, we're closing in on 100 deaths(33+ in the U.S.). "Nothing", "Bust", "Disappointed", "Over-Hyped".... nah, I don't think I'd use any of those terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Balt got the pressure record. DC missed it by a bit. If I had known that before the storm was coming, I'd have thought the damage here would have been severe. I still can't believe how unscathed we are around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 That's a fair statement. Places like the texas coast is boring for years until a cat 3+ comes home. Same with LA, nothing exciting or extreme down there for years until a big one comes home. Up north in MN the only real extreme weather is an arctic outbreak. TBH- consistent extreme weather exists in almost no place in the US. One of the really cool things about MD is that we can have "exciting" weather happen in any month of the year. Edit: Just want to add that I lived in the CO rockies for 7 years. My house was at 10k'. The weather here is more exciting and extreme than there. Jan of 96 had 170" of snow in my backyard but even that wasn't extreme because we were used to a lot of snow. It was kinda normal in a way. We would hike ridges in the backcountry to ski and experienced 60-80mph winds several times every winter and even that felt kinda normal. Well, that brings up an interesting point. If someplace gets more severe weather, but people get used to it, is it extreme? Or if the infrastructure/environment is more hardened for it? DC has a variety of extreme weather, but since it doesn't happen very often, we generally aren't as prepared for it. We don't have the snow removal capabilities of northern states and our landscape/power infrastructure is more susceptible to winds than the same in the plains. Since you mention MN, I experienced more snow, wider temperature swings (my highest temp is 107, set in MN, not here), more severe weather, actual supercells, and large-scale wind storms there. Where DC has the advantage is the moisture fetch off of the Atlantic. That is a more direct feed into winter storms, and the opportunity for tropical remnants. In total, I feel like there were more extremes in MN, but more impact here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I was curious about the same thing...thanks for verifying that. On a related topic, was the wind expected to die down so quickly and (relatively) early late last night? Maybe LWX was playing it safe, but even in the evening forecasts and statements they were highlighting the strongest winds to be from yesterday evening through this morning, with gradual weakining throughout today. I'm not criticizing in any way, but just wondering something changed in that regard which was not expected initially. Winds weakened quicker than forecast particularly today .. Most were still calling for bigger gusts at least. Sorta surprising since the low was so deep but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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