TalcottWx Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Have to give my congrats to BGE on keeping power here. Impressive. My power didn't even flicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Surprised to see several smaller (< than 20') Bradford pear and ornamental pine trees completely uprooted in several neighbors' yards - surprised because that's the worst of the damage. Nearby mature trees, including the 90'+ oak in my backyard, dropped little in the way of sticks and limbs. I fully expected otherwise this morning, when we had gusts up past 60 mph after landfall last nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I'm kind of amazed that the trees look pretty much the same as yesterday. I guess even in the middle of Fall, leaves won't drop until they want to. yeah i was sort of surprised how many leaves are still on the trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 yeah i was sort of surprised how many leaves are still on the trees Yea, no kidding. My before and after pics of the trees in my backyard are virtually identical. I took a long dog walk around the block and didn't see a single tree down either. That's very unusual in my neighborhood after high winds. I think the combination of factors like less leaves, precip deficit, and wind direction was the perfect setup to not have much damage here even in the face of 50-60mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 whew, just got power back; lost it at midnight can't complain in light of what others have experienced p.s. today's CFS2 looks better than yesterday's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 A lot of dark intersections up here. And people are just blowing through them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 whew, just got power back; lost it at midnight can't complain in light of what others have experienced p.s. today's CFS2 looks better than yesterday's The strong block associated with this system is a good sign for the future.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 this storm reminds me of just how perfect of a track we need for extreme weather. we had a cat1 near atlantic city with historic low pressure and in the dc vicinity it was mostly a very windy, rain event. more fun to watch than destructive, at least here. not saying i want destruction...i don't...just saying that compared to some other parts of the country this is a pretty tame place to live weather-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 this storm reminds me of just how perfect of a track we need for extreme weather. we had a cat1 near atlantic city with historic low pressure and in the dc vicinity it was mostly a very windy, rain event. more fun to watch than destructive, at least here. not saying i want destruction...i don't...just saying that compared to some other parts of the country this is a pretty tame place to live weather-wise. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 It definitely wasn't as bad as advertised at least around here. It barely got into the low level of advertised. I'd also wager to say that it was not as bad as advertised everywhere but people who got it much worse would complain so I'll wait till the whole assessment process completes. Of course some of the biggest hypester mets are congratulating themselves today either way. dc is just not where you want to live if you want extreme weather. i know, i've lived here for 34 years. we have variety and our moments, but even those moments are probably exaggerated a little when it's storytelling time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Lol i'm not sure what the lol is about, but i think it's incredibly tame for the most part. we have variety, but i would say very little in the way of extreme events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 The strong block associated with this system is a good sign for the future.. I tend to agree but I looked back through NAO data and significant - anomalies in Oct appear to have no correlation to winter. It starts to show up in Nov though.OTOH- The NAO has had a negative tendency since June so that says something. And one more detail that seems to be coming in line is the NH snow cover situation. There is definitely a correlation there in October that points towards a higher probability of blocking during the winter. The state of NH snowcover followed perfectly with the theory this year too. The snow cover on the other side of the globe increased rapidly during the middle to late part of the month. This will be a very good year to test the entire theory. I'm not sure you can simply tie the two together though. I'm a bit optimistic this winter even though our Nino seems to have pooped out. I don't think it will be a bust like we would normally expect with a "nina hangover" type of enso. We need to pray that the vortex from hell doesn't set up shop in the gulf of AK in Dec. That sucker has proven time and time again that it is really hard to get rid of. If there is a tendency for ridging in those parts during Dec them I'll be pretty stoked. Keep and eye on models for next week. They are hinting at a possible coastal system to develop. Nothing big or anything but if the trough is deep enough and blocking is in the right spot then it could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 you disagree? i think it's incredibly tame for the most part. we have variety, but i would say very little in the way of extreme events. We definitely do not have the most extreme events in the country, but where else in the country can you get hurricanes, derecho's, tornadoes, blizzards, ice storms and severe thunderstorms. I think we by far have the widest variety of extreme events anywhere, they may not be the most severe of each kind but our weather is definitely not tame at all here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 dc is just not where you want to live if you want extreme weather. i know, i've lived here for 34 years. we have variety and our moments, but even those moments are probably exaggerated a little when it's storytelling time. I think we get a good assortment of weather but usually none of it is particularly extreme... well, other than heat maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 We definitely do not have the most extreme events in the country, but where else in the country can you get hurricanes, derecho's, tornadoes, blizzards, ice storms and severe thunderstorms. I think we by far have the widest variety of extreme events anywhere, they may not be the most severe of each kind but our weather is definitely not tame at all here. I agree with this. For year round potential with a variety of different events we live in a bit of a sweet spot. The only thing we really lack is F2 or greater tornadoes but that is a damn good thing. There really isn't a place in the country that has consistent "exciting" weather. We do better than the vast majority imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 My comments earlier probably weren't the best. I just saw so many people acting like it was the end of the world in the leadup then running with every rumor last night it's hard to understand how it betters the science to be like that. Issues are with a relatively small number of people who are outrageous in social media etc. I'm 100% aware that places north of the center got crushed with surge. Also, a 4-8" general rainfall with ~60 mph gusts is nothing to sneeze about here. It didn't take long for the posts praising the forecasters (by other forecaster) to come out. I want to see someone write a post about how amazing modeling is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 We definitely do not have the most extreme events in the country, but where else in the country can you get hurricanes, derecho's, tornadoes, blizzards, ice storms and severe thunderstorms. I think we by far have the widest variety of extreme events anywhere, they may not be the most severe of each kind but our weather is definitely not tame at all here. that's what i was getting at. yes, we have variety, but nothing that's usually off the charts (and that's actually what i like about this area). i don't really want a tightly wound cat 3 hurricane overhead or an f5 tornado or mudslides or a 7 on the richter scale earthquake or massive floods, etc. i like that we can get through a storm and usually say the worst part of it was our power going out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 The modeling was amazing, I remember when this thing showed up on the GGEM at like 9 days out and everyone was like "wtf" and then more models quickly came on board and the tone changed...and now we have this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I think we get a good assortment of weather but usually none of it is particularly extreme... well, other than heat maybe. true about the heat and humidity...good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 that's what i was getting at. yes, we have variety, but nothing that's usually off the charts (and that's actually what i like about this area). i don't really want a tightly wound cat 3 hurricane overhead or an f5 tornado or mudslides or a 7 on the richter scale earthquake or massive floods, etc. i like that we can get through a storm and usually say the worst part of it was our power going out. I agree with you on that part, but i cannot agree with the tame part of your statement. It's all good either way, let's just hope we get alot of snow this winter because 09-10 seems like decades ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Don't models typically sniff out the big ones pretty easily? Then again the unwavering nature of the euro was nothing short of amazing. Models did pretty awesome in 09-10 too. Maybe it's the strength of the block? Whenever there is a big block in place it makes it easy for models because the amount of different solutions are limited? Phasing without a block is almost impossible to get right. And that's understandable too. Tiny little timing differences can equal massive differences in downstream solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I agree with you on that part, but i cannot agree with the tame part of your statement. It's all good either way, let's just hope we get alot of snow this winter because 09-10 seems like decades ago. maybe tame wasn't the right word. when i say tame, i'm saying not extreme which is kinda stupid. i mean to say we lack extreme weather. this state as a whole is one where it's more about having a lot of options, not necessarily one or two of the best options. it's a state of variety as opposed to extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 maybe tame wasn't the right word. when i say tame, i'm saying not extreme which is kinda stupid. i mean to say we lack extreme weather. this state as a whole is one where it's more about having a lot of options, not necessarily one or two of the best options. it's a state of variety as opposed to extremes. That's a fair statement. Places like the texas coast is boring for years until a cat 3+ comes home. Same with LA, nothing exciting or extreme down there for years until a big one comes home. Up north in MN the only real extreme weather is an arctic outbreak. TBH- consistent extreme weather exists in almost no place in the US. One of the really cool things about MD is that we can have "exciting" weather happen in any month of the year. Edit: Just want to add that I lived in the CO rockies for 7 years. My house was at 10k'. The weather here is more exciting and extreme than there. Jan of 96 had 170" of snow in my backyard but even that wasn't extreme because we were used to a lot of snow. It was kinda normal in a way. We would hike ridges in the backcountry to ski and experienced 60-80mph winds several times every winter and even that felt kinda normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 The Feds are open tomorrow, the party is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 That's a fair statement. Places like the texas coast is boring for years until a cat 3+ comes home. Same with LA, nothing exciting or extreme down there for years until a big one comes home. Up north in MN the only real extreme weather is an arctic outbreak. TBH- consistent extreme weather exists in almost no place in the US. One of the really cool things about MD is that we can have "exciting" weather happen in any month of the year. Edit: Just want to add that I lived in the CO rockies for 7 years. My house was at 10k'. The weather here is more exciting and extreme than there. Jan of 96 had 170" of snow in my backyard but even that wasn't extreme because we were used to a lot of snow. It was kinda normal in a way. We would hike ridges in the backcountry to ski and experienced 60-80mph winds several times every winter and even that felt kinda normal. Could not have said it any better myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 That's a fair statement. Places like the texas coast is boring for years until a cat 3+ comes home. Same with LA, nothing exciting or extreme down there for years until a big one comes home. Up north in MN the only real extreme weather is an arctic outbreak. TBH- consistent extreme weather exists in almost no place in the US. One of the really cool things about MD is that we can have "exciting" weather happen in any month of the year. Yea, I think I prefer the variety, I just think we're pretty safe from a catastrophic event here at least that's been my experience so far *knock on wood*. The most extreme events I've experienced was the back to back Feb '10 blizzards. that was pretty crazy, but even that we were mostly functional within a week. I haven't experienced anything that has taken months/years to recover from. There's certain weather that worries me (tornado outbreaks) and there's certain weather that excites me (which is mostly what we get). We did have the CP tornado, though, and I would classify that as pretty extreme and very rare around here, and one that I would want no part of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 The Feds are open tomorrow, the party is over. Same for DC gov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 It didn't take long for the posts praising the forecasters (by other forecaster) to come out. I want to see someone write a post about how amazing modeling is. Actually, I'm shocked at this point to see that the models, esp. Euro, held up as well as they did on Sandy, at least that far out. Typically, when we see a storm modeled 7-8 days out, I might peek in the AmWx MA forum to see if anyone's hair was on fire about it, but then wait about a day or two out from the event (if it even comes to pass) to see what mets stopping by here are really saying. Some really good discussion in here the past few days regarding potentials -- and no hype, at least that I read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 My comments earlier probably weren't the best. I just saw so many people acting like it was the end of the world in the leadup then running with every rumor last night it's hard to understand how it betters the science to be like that. Issues are with a relatively small number of people who are outrageous in social media etc. I'm 100% aware that places north of the center got crushed with surge. Also, a 4-8" general rainfall with ~60 mph gusts is nothing to sneeze about here. It didn't take long for the posts praising the forecasters (by other forecaster) to come out. I want to see someone write a post about how amazing modeling is. Agree with this. Maybe we lucked out a bit on what some of the extreme model solutions were indicating in terms of wind (and rain). But 4-8" area-wide rain, 30-40MPH sustained winds for a prolonged time, and 60+MPH gusts is certainly nothing to sneeze at. I didn't care for the hypsters (media and others) on this storm, but I also couldn't believe how naive or willfully ignorant some people were that "it won't be a big deal" (acutally heard a couple of co-workers express that sentiment on Friday). I don't think it was too much of an overreaction to close the Fed Gov't (as well as schools and other businesses, etc.) yesterday or even today. Though one could argue about whether it's really necessary today...they were probably considering how many people might be flooded, without power still, have kids out of school, etc. Fact is, it's good to prepare, and I did what I could. The power thankfully didn't go out...make that miraculously didn't go out here where I'm at in MoCo (with Pepco!). So, I've got a stock of dry goods and water to hold onto the next time we do lose power for any prolonged period. By the way, I've seen a few comments in here that we may have fared much better in terms of power outages during this storm at least in part because the derecho on June 30 essentially already blew down all the otherwise weakened trees. Any veracity to that idea? Would make sense. That, and the fact that Pepco took a lot of heat after that event, and I think they did a ton of tree pruning and fixing up the lines throughout the summer. Oh, and I'll step in line to say the models did a fantastic job on this!! Yes, they missed some details including overdoing some of the impacts (wind) around here in the local DC area. But they basically had it pretty well nailed by the middle of last week or so. Especially the Euro. And, one final thing...a question here. Anyone here find out if DCA/IAD/BWI broke their all-time low pressure record? I believe the current records were set during the March 1993 Superstorm. Apologies if this was mentioned several pages back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 That's a fair statement. Places like the texas coast is boring for years until a cat 3+ comes home. Same with LA, nothing exciting or extreme down there for years until a big one comes home. Up north in MN the only real extreme weather is an arctic outbreak. TBH- consistent extreme weather exists in almost no place in the US. One of the really cool things about MD is that we can have "exciting" weather happen in any month of the year. Edit: Just want to add that I lived in the CO rockies for 7 years. My house was at 10k'. The weather here is more exciting and extreme than there. Jan of 96 had 170" of snow in my backyard but even that wasn't extreme because we were used to a lot of snow. It was kinda normal in a way. We would hike ridges in the backcountry to ski and experienced 60-80mph winds several times every winter and even that felt kinda normal. I worked in Denver for almost a year and did find the weather not very exciting there for the most part. It seemed to be either sunny or it would rain (uncommon), I don't remember many days when it was cloudy. It did change temperatures more so than here. I do remember days when it was 60 or 70 followed by snow the next day. That said, there are more tornado's east of Denver which I put in the extreme category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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