mattie g Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 NCEP model site is fairly slow for some strange reason... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I still think if the Euro lands Sandy in and around Jersey to SNE, you gotta believe its going to happen............ 6 runs in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z GFS shows flurries for here and northern Md. Tuesday night and Wednesday. Clown maps even have a light accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 NCEP model site is fairly slow for some strange reason... probably because every weather nerd known to man was on it to see what the gfs would do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 probably because every weather nerd known to man was on it to see what the gfs would do No doubt...<DT>despite the fact that it's a garbage model.</DT> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 So...is the 12z GFS a real move towards the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 So...is the 12z GFS a real move towards the Euro? its the first run to show the phase, even if its much later than the euro has been showing. gfs ensembles have been trending west - so i guess it was about time the OP would get on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 So...is the 12z GFS a real move towards the Euro? I'd say so. The apparent agreement between the GFS ensemble mean and the Euro was a bit misleading...some of the recent ensemble means that APPEARED to show a Sandy capture/phase were actually averaging many/most of the members that popped a separate coastal that got some energy transfer from Sandy. This run is a full-on capture of the REAL Sandy by the trough. No separate coastal popped, although it certainly looked like it was going to based on the 500mb chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 its the first run to show the phase, even if its much later than the euro has been showing. gfs ensembles have been trending west - so i guess it was about time the OP would get on board That's what I was thinking. If the 12z Euro stays fairly consistent...say...with "landfall" between the Delmarva and LI...then I wouldn't be surprised at all if the GFS doesn't show an earlier phase over its next few runs. Model prediction...meteorology for the uneducated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 That's what I was thinking. If the 12z Euro stays fairly consistent...say...with "landfall" between the Delmarva and LI...then I wouldn't be surprised at all if the GFS doesn't show an earlier phase over its next few runs. Model prediction...meteorology for the uneducated. I agree - GFS tried to capture Sandy earlier than it did, so I wouldnt be surprised if later GFS runs do indeed have the phase happen earlier than 12z did. Plus if we want anything more than a breeze and some cold showers, we want that phase to happen earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS ensembles should be interesting to see if they capture the low earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'd say so. The apparent agreement between the GFS ensemble mean and the Euro was a bit misleading...some of the recent ensemble means that APPEARED to show a Sandy capture/phase were actually averaging many/most of the members that popped a separate coastal that got some energy transfer from Sandy. This run is a full-on capture of the REAL Sandy by the trough. No separate coastal popped, although it certainly looked like it was going to based on the 500mb chart. Much appreciated, WxUSAF. I was reading the thread in the New England forum earlier, and there was a lot of talk about the potential for a coastal to pop, rather than the capture/phase scenario, and I wasn't really too certain where that was coming from (see my post above explaining my weather education level). Things really are shaping up to be a pretty wild system, no matter how you slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I want to ask again, where do we think we want this to come in for our best chance at frozen precip? From what I've seen, South Jersey looks best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 NOGAPS fun 2-4 inches of rain in Eastern and NE part of LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 red X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 JB says "no changes" to his forecast. Except he took DC and Baltimore out of his "damaging snow threat" zone. I want to ask again, where do we think we want this to come in for our best chance at frozen precip? From what I've seen, South Jersey looks best Eh...definitely north of us. 0Z Euro hits Jersey, but then moves WSW for a bit, which limits our fantasy snowfall. We need to be close enough to get some moisture (I think a NH/ME hit is probably too far), but far enough north that the cold air can really get in here. Probably between Jersey and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I want to ask again, where do we think we want this to come in for our best chance at frozen precip? From what I've seen, South Jersey looks best I guess it depends on which direction it moves if/when it comes in. I would think northern jersey / LI landfall would be best if it is moving due west (unlikely but possible). Otherwise anywhere in jersey I suppose. It still comes down to the direction it's moving. Anything further W than NW would be optimal. With that being said, I would think anywhere just along and east of the fall line stands little chance. Maybe some window dressing of falling flakes but the ground will stay green. CPS should be a little excited for back to back years of Oct snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 red X Really? I just fixed it... does it come up now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I guess it depends on which direction it moves if/when it comes in. I would think northern jersey / LI landfall would be best if it is moving due west (unlikely but possible). Otherwise anywhere in jersey I suppose. It still comes down to the direction it's moving. Anything further W than NW would be optimal. With that being said, I would think anywhere just along and east of the fall line stands little chance. Maybe some window dressing of falling flakes but the ground will stay green. CPS should be a little excited for back to back years of Oct snow. So you mean to say those of us west of I-95/fall line have a shot at accumulating snow? Euro fantasies aside, that is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Still red X for me. Was the NOGAPS fun for our area again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Has anyone seen precip amount maps? I tried to look on NCEP but they are, how do you say, slooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I couldn't care less whether the nogaps appears or has a red X. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Still red X for me. Was the NOGAPS fun for our area again? Pretty much an I-81 east event... N VA/DC/MD (besides W MD) get heavy rain of 2-4 inches https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dynamic/NGP/2012102412/ngp10.prp.096.namer.gif https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dynamic/NGP/2012102412/ngp10.prp.102.namer.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I want to ask again, where do we think we want this to come in for our best chance at frozen precip? From what I've seen, South Jersey looks best Seems that way to me, though temps may be an issue the farther east you are until cold air gets wrapped in. But as long as it eventually tracks somewhere into southern NY or so, we should get precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I couldn't care less whether the nogaps appears or has a red X. ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yoda and his NOGAPS... smh. At least it's in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Has anyone seen precip amount maps? I tried to look on NCEP but they are, how do you say, slooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow. For the GFS? I posted one in the main thread. Here's a later one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 So you mean to say those of us west of I-95/fall line have a shot at accumulating snow? Euro fantasies aside, that is incredible. Heh, I guess if the setup was spot on perfect I suppose. I would think areas like Parr's and mt vortmax would be the southern extent if everything came together just right but that is really just a wag. We probably need to be pretty far from the center with hardcore N-NW flow to stand a chance. That's what makes it so interesting to me. We suck at wraparound snow for a multitude of reasons. Downsloping being the big culprit. Then add orographics to the north wringing the everything out before the downsloping even starts. However, a storm this strong moving in a very odd westerly (even wsw if you believe some of the models) would be just about as perfect as you could get for snow wrapping around to make it this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Has anyone seen precip amount maps? I tried to look on NCEP but they are, how do you say, slooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow. At 48-hour intervals ending at 180hr, .1" or less from Frederickburg into central MD. The pretty blues start showing up as you get into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Thanks guys. I was just curious as to how expansive the rain shield would be with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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