Avdave Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 My flight out of BWI on Tuesday morning.......what type of surface winds/gusts does it take to ground flights? Well for one, I dont think your filght will be going out on Tues morning or at least it will be delayed most likely. Monday is going to be hell for flights being cancelled and or delayed. IAD already has a couple flights cancelled tomorrow night. It is up to FAA and BWI ops to make the decision on when to ground stop all flights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Winds don't spike till about 18z Mon.. perhaps a little earlier. I could see it being a liberal leave day. If it performs from late Monday on Tuesday seems game... I need to figure out what happens with jury duty on tue. Doesn't matter, Monday wise...if they anticipate it being bad later, no way they wanna risk a Jan 26 esque debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 How much of that would depend on what happens with Metro/MARC/VRE, and commuter buses? If they're down, the Gov't usually closes I think. Though as you say they may well go with liberal leave and allow telecommuting if you've got an agreement for that. I'd say there's a decent likelihood that schools are closed Mon/Tue. They won't risk the bad publicity that happened with the Jan 26. I give odds of 50/50 for Monday closure. 70/30 Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Very true, they certainly are. Even if you don't regularly telework they let you sign an agreement in the event of bad weather and the like. Of course, if you've got no power, it wouldn't matter. We are allowed to telework 2 days a week, which when combined with your aws day, it really helps cut down on time commuting to and from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 They won't risk the bad publicity that happened with the Jan 26. I give odds of 50/50 for Monday closure. 70/30 Tuesday. Exactly. Even if the winds aren't really ramping up until later Monday, I don't even want to comprehend thousands of cars being unleashed during torrential rains onto flooding roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Doesn't matter, Monday wise...if they anticipate it being bad later, no way they wanna risk a Jan 26 esque debacle. And it would be a smart play. Sticking a couple hundred thousand folks on the road as things deteriorate is a bad move. Trees will be coming down between Mon am and Wed am. Less people on the roads the better. And then considering the flooding potential...no cars on the road is a good call. Risking your life or health to drive to work, grocery store, or friend's house is simply not worth it. In July 2009 I took a branch through the roof that stopped 6" from my head. I CHOSE to be looking out the patio door while my family was safe in the rec room below ground. I will NEVER make that mistake again. Putting yourself in harms way during an obvious dangerous situation is nothing more than taking an unecessary chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 We are allowed to telework 2 days a week, which when combined with your aws day, it really helps cut down on time commuting to and from. Same with us, 1-2 telework days per week and you can do an AWS. That, plus the "emergency" telework ability. I live close enough to work, so teleworking is almost a non-factor for me. (What agency do you work for, by the way? I'm with the NWS, currently at NOAA HQ in Silver Spring). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I wonder if we could end up with almost the entire Bos to DC 95 corridor in the dark. That's kind of a scary thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The 0z GFS is a major reality check. We've seen plenty of wobbling. Talk about this is bad for here and this is bad for there. The GFS is saying this is f*cking bad for anyone from Nova to coastal Maine. It's hard to really wrap your head around but we are truly on the potential verge of witnessing a storm that will talked about long after we're all dead. The benchmark of "what if". Even a non-weather geek needs to let this sink in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The 0z GFS is a major reality check. We've seen plenty of wobbling. Talk about this is bad for here and this is bad for there. The GFS is saying this is f*cking bad for anyone from Nova to coastal Maine. It's hard to really wrap your head around but we are truly on the potential verge of witnessing a storm that will talked about long after we're all dead. The benchmark of "what if". Even a non-weather geek needs to let this sink in. Yeah, the GFS basically wants to b**ch slap all of us, knee us in the groan and steal our women. Ok, ill admit, this isn't boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The 0z GFS is a major reality check. We've seen plenty of wobbling. Talk about this is bad for here and this is bad for there. The GFS is saying this is f*cking bad for anyone from Nova to coastal Maine. It's hard to really wrap your head around but we are truly on the potential verge of witnessing a storm that will talked about long after we're all dead. The benchmark of "what if". Even a non-weather geek needs to let this sink in. It says something when I bought water and food just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 It says something when I bought water and food just in case. Now i am getting nervous, i was at traget tonight at 10:45 and the place was packed. I got so nervous i bought $300 worth of food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm already so tired of this thing.. way more than normal before an event. It seems like it's been going on forever.. one of those weird times where every run just about is like "wow look at that bomb". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Now i am getting nervous, i was at traget tonight at 10:45 and the place was packed. I got so nervous i bought $300 worth of food. Now the issue is trying not to eat all the food while waiting. I've basically planned to lose power for about 5-7 days.. I seriously doubt it will happen and I should be one of the quickest back given my location but that wildcard of possibly multiple tens of millions without power is a little hard to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Hopefully most leaves are blown off the trees before the real winds kick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 It says something when I bought water and food just in case. I've tried not to believe. I'm a weenie but I have this stupid hardwired trait to be realistic. Not let the digital weather fantasyland cross over into reality. I've always said "It's a computer vs sensible weather". I'm sure there are plenty here just like me that try and divide a digital solution vs the "real" solution. This specific time it has me kinda knotted up. I keep seeing something that is conventionally "unreal" being "real". I keep wanting to think "hey, the models are just running away with the data." Or, "hey, lets be honest...60-70mph gusts in dc metro over a long duration only exist with a cat 2-3 landfall and perfect track". This isn't localized perfection here. It's something different. Something much more ominous. Most who know the digital bob chill know that I'm usually at worst a high end middle of the road weenie. This high end middle of the road weenie pretty much believes that we can all pretty much expect an off and on 12 hour 2012 derecho without heat or lightening. I hope everyone can wrap their head around what that means with sensible weather. I'm still wrapping and it's weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What was the highest gust in the area during the derecho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Now the issue is trying not to eat all the food while waiting. I've basically planned to lose power for about 5-7 days.. I seriously doubt it will happen and I should be one of the quickest back given my location but that wildcard of possibly multiple tens of millions without power is a little hard to figure out. The issue i think is two things, in my area they said they will not start any restoration efforts until the wind is below 25 mph and that includes gusts. So that means they will not start restoring until Wed morning. Plus this may be the largest number of power outages on the east coast ever, as crappy as BGE and Pepco are i would think some people could potentially be without power for 10 days. I only started eating the chips and salsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 0Z GFS seems like the typical D.C. snow hole: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=10&model_dd=28&model_init_hh=00&fhour=84¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Is this thing over yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Bob Ryan @BobRyanABC7 MT So it is no longer #Sandy? TWC name? RT @GarySzatkowski: @MikeMasco We are going to see 70+ mph wind gusts but it won't be tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 0Z GFS seems like the typical D.C. snow hole: http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false You wanna talk snow hole? Look at Morgantown and see how close it is to paydirt. 50-70 miles. While I'm happy that maybe we don't lose power for a week, I'm slightly bummed that a town 40 ft higher than us gets 6-8 inches and we get bupkis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Bob Ryan @BobRyanABC7 MT So it is no longer #Sandy? TWC name? RT @GarySzatkowski: @MikeMasco We are going to see 70+ mph wind gusts but it won't be tropical. And the bastard stole all of that from Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Local NE winds already from a center of circulation hundreds of miles off the coast due east of Georgia! http://weather.weatherbug.com/DC/Washington-weather.html?zcode=z6286 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What was the highest gust in the area during the derecho? IAD 71 DCA 70 BWI 66 But it had gusts past 40 for like 15 minutes.. 57 is severe in t'storms. I'd say once you get past 50 trees start coming down at least here and there... long soaking rain only makes it easier. NAM MOS is already bringing IAD to tropical storm force sustained late Monday.. rest of area fairly close.. stays near those levels for at least 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yeah, already breezy out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Please tell Hal to relinquish the controls on the radar so we can bring it back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Thanks for all the the kind words..I like everyone . Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Would you look at that Red Line!!! I wonder what the winds under that line are in the Chesapeake Bay? http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php This storm is a frikkin' BEAST! We need torrential rain squalls because they efficiently mix down the extreme winds at the 850mb pressure surface, right down to the ground. WOW, I get to PERSONALLY EXPERIENCE my very own Perfect Storm right here in Dale City. Mark this well. We are living history!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Posting Dover AFB Radar KLWX is not working.... Message Date: Oct 28 2012 03:35:42 03:35Z KLWX just encountered a hardware failure and is down. a tech is en route to evaluate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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