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Sandy Obs and Banter thread - fall 2012


mappy

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My flight out of BWI on Tuesday morning.......what type of surface winds/gusts does it take to ground flights?

Well for one, I dont think your filght will be going out on Tues morning or at least it will be delayed most likely. Monday is going to be hell for flights being cancelled and or delayed. IAD already has a couple flights cancelled tomorrow night. It is up to FAA and BWI ops to make the decision on when to ground stop all flights.

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Winds don't spike till about 18z Mon.. perhaps a little earlier. I could see it being a liberal leave day. If it performs from late Monday on Tuesday seems game... I need to figure out what happens with jury duty on tue.

Doesn't matter, Monday wise...if they anticipate it being bad later, no way they wanna risk a Jan 26 esque debacle.

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How much of that would depend on what happens with Metro/MARC/VRE, and commuter buses? If they're down, the Gov't usually closes I think. Though as you say they may well go with liberal leave and allow telecommuting if you've got an agreement for that.

I'd say there's a decent likelihood that schools are closed Mon/Tue.

They won't risk the bad publicity that happened with the Jan 26. I give odds of 50/50 for Monday closure. 70/30 Tuesday.

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Very true, they certainly are. Even if you don't regularly telework they let you sign an agreement in the event of bad weather and the like. Of course, if you've got no power, it wouldn't matter.

We are allowed to telework 2 days a week, which when combined with your aws day, it really helps cut down on time commuting to and from.

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Doesn't matter, Monday wise...if they anticipate it being bad later, no way they wanna risk a Jan 26 esque debacle.

And it would be a smart play. Sticking a couple hundred thousand folks on the road as things deteriorate is a bad move. Trees will be coming down between Mon am and Wed am. Less people on the roads the better. And then considering the flooding potential...no cars on the road is a good call. Risking your life or health to drive to work, grocery store, or friend's house is simply not worth it.

In July 2009 I took a branch through the roof that stopped 6" from my head. I CHOSE to be looking out the patio door while my family was safe in the rec room below ground. I will NEVER make that mistake again. Putting yourself in harms way during an obvious dangerous situation is nothing more than taking an unecessary chance.

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We are allowed to telework 2 days a week, which when combined with your aws day, it really helps cut down on time commuting to and from.

Same with us, 1-2 telework days per week and you can do an AWS. That, plus the "emergency" telework ability. I live close enough to work, so teleworking is almost a non-factor for me.

(What agency do you work for, by the way? I'm with the NWS, currently at NOAA HQ in Silver Spring).

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The 0z GFS is a major reality check. We've seen plenty of wobbling. Talk about this is bad for here and this is bad for there. The GFS is saying this is f*cking bad for anyone from Nova to coastal Maine.

It's hard to really wrap your head around but we are truly on the potential verge of witnessing a storm that will talked about long after we're all dead. The benchmark of "what if". Even a non-weather geek needs to let this sink in.

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The 0z GFS is a major reality check. We've seen plenty of wobbling. Talk about this is bad for here and this is bad for there. The GFS is saying this is f*cking bad for anyone from Nova to coastal Maine.

It's hard to really wrap your head around but we are truly on the potential verge of witnessing a storm that will talked about long after we're all dead. The benchmark of "what if". Even a non-weather geek needs to let this sink in.

Yeah, the GFS basically wants to b**ch slap all of us, knee us in the groan and steal our women. Ok, ill admit, this isn't boring :)

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The 0z GFS is a major reality check. We've seen plenty of wobbling. Talk about this is bad for here and this is bad for there. The GFS is saying this is f*cking bad for anyone from Nova to coastal Maine.

It's hard to really wrap your head around but we are truly on the potential verge of witnessing a storm that will talked about long after we're all dead. The benchmark of "what if". Even a non-weather geek needs to let this sink in.

It says something when I bought water and food just in case. ;)

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I'm already so tired of this thing.. way more than normal before an event. It seems like it's been going on forever.. one of those weird times where every run just about is like "wow look at that bomb".

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Now i am getting nervous, i was at traget tonight at 10:45 and the place was packed. I got so nervous i bought $300 worth of food.

Now the issue is trying not to eat all the food while waiting.

I've basically planned to lose power for about 5-7 days.. I seriously doubt it will happen and I should be one of the quickest back given my location but that wildcard of possibly multiple tens of millions without power is a little hard to figure out.

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It says something when I bought water and food just in case. wink.png

I've tried not to believe. I'm a weenie but I have this stupid hardwired trait to be realistic. Not let the digital weather fantasyland cross over into reality. I've always said "It's a computer vs sensible weather". I'm sure there are plenty here just like me that try and divide a digital solution vs the "real" solution.

This specific time it has me kinda knotted up. I keep seeing something that is conventionally "unreal" being "real". I keep wanting to think "hey, the models are just running away with the data." Or, "hey, lets be honest...60-70mph gusts in dc metro over a long duration only exist with a cat 2-3 landfall and perfect track".

This isn't localized perfection here. It's something different. Something much more ominous. Most who know the digital bob chill know that I'm usually at worst a high end middle of the road weenie. This high end middle of the road weenie pretty much believes that we can all pretty much expect an off and on 12 hour 2012 derecho without heat or lightening. I hope everyone can wrap their head around what that means with sensible weather. I'm still wrapping and it's weird.

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Now the issue is trying not to eat all the food while waiting.

I've basically planned to lose power for about 5-7 days.. I seriously doubt it will happen and I should be one of the quickest back given my location but that wildcard of possibly multiple tens of millions without power is a little hard to figure out.

The issue i think is two things, in my area they said they will not start any restoration efforts until the wind is below 25 mph and that includes gusts. So that means they will not start restoring until Wed morning. Plus this may be the largest number of power outages on the east coast ever, as crappy as BGE and Pepco are i would think some people could potentially be without power for 10 days. I only started eating the chips and salsa.

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0Z GFS seems like the typical D.C. snow hole: http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false

You wanna talk snow hole? Look at Morgantown and see how close it is to paydirt. 50-70 miles. While I'm happy that maybe we don't lose power for a week, I'm slightly bummed that a town 40 ft higher than us gets 6-8 inches and we get bupkis.

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What was the highest gust in the area during the derecho?

IAD 71

DCA 70

BWI 66

But it had gusts past 40 for like 15 minutes.. 57 is severe in t'storms. I'd say once you get past 50 trees start coming down at least here and there... long soaking rain only makes it easier.

NAM MOS is already bringing IAD to tropical storm force sustained late Monday.. rest of area fairly close.. stays near those levels for at least 12 hours.

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Would you look at that Red Line!!! I wonder what the winds under that line are in the Chesapeake Bay?

http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php

This storm is a frikkin' BEAST!

We need torrential rain squalls because they efficiently mix down the extreme winds at the 850mb pressure surface, right down to the ground. WOW, I get to PERSONALLY EXPERIENCE my very own Perfect Storm right here in Dale City.

Mark this well. We are living history!!

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