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Sandy Obs and Banter thread - fall 2012


mappy

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What's up with the insane strenghthening now? Not sure anyone knows but Wintrymix and I are at the same conference. I was moderating a session and saw him in the audience and had to bite my tongue vs ask right out loud what the Euro ens report was....lol..

Well he must have been impressed with it as he had his wife buy a generator. Hope he gets home quick enough to set it up.

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Attending a conference in Bethesda Mon-Wed. They added this to their website header:

The IPM 2012 Conference will kick off on October 28th, as scheduled, and we’re looking forward to seeing everyone there. The possible storm activity that is forecasted to affect the East Coast is not anticipated to be a major weather event for the Washington D.C. area.

Might be right but seems a little irresponsible for adding their own analysis. Lots of people will be flying in for this I would presume. I have a red eye back to BWI from Vegas Sunday night. Sounds like my timing should be ok.

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My personal dread is water in the basement coupled with a power outage, which means I can't stay keep ahead of any seepage through my little sump pump and frenetic use of the water vac. That's how I've minimized water in the basement in the past. I'm just hoping all the events over the past few years have Darwinized all the weaker branches and trees. (If the NWS can use "Frankenstorm" then I can use "Darwinized.") If it wasn't for the basement, I wouldn't be too apprehensive about losing power; it'll be chilly, but my daughter and I are much better with cold than heat. My wife can tolerate anything.

I have seen several Pepco crews out this morning, trimming stuff back. So at least they're being proactive. I don't recall seeing that before Irene.

Safeway was packed yesterday evening when I went there after work. Again, that's not atypical for a Friday, but all the usual suspects -- batteries, bottled water -- were running low.

Then I'll reread "The Road" by Cormac McCarthy, or watch the movie (which I've never seen), and everything'll be put in context.

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I went through the panels on the NAM. There is some serious wind just above our heads during the modeled intense rainfall. That mechanism in itself will bring the winds down to the surface. It's looking more and more likely that all 3 airports will be recording multiple gusts @ 60mph+.

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With the increasing possibility that this storm will actuall make landfall with a barometric pressure in the 940-950mb range, does anyone have historical comparisons of barometric pressure readings at landfall for other tropical events that have impacted the midatlantic/northeast over the years?

Jason from CWG blogged on this yesterday:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-sandy-may-be-unprecedented-in-east-coast-storm-history/2012/10/26/4f6660e6-1f6e-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html

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In the "first world problems" category, I'm hoping the power outages hold off until Monday morning. I would like to get through Boardwalk Empire tomorrow night before returning to the 1920s, er 1820s, in my personal life. If the winds hit TS strength gusts Sunday around dusk, I figure power starts going down by 8 in the metro DC area. Maybe even before that.

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Some in the NE are hugging the NOGAPS, Canadian and Ukie, as they are all showing east in their latest updates. While a shift either way is entirely possible, not sure I'd be hugging a NOGAPS model, even coming from a weenie like me.

I dunno...GFS & Euro consensus with S NJ - seems like thats a safer bet than the latter.

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I have a generator and I'm in the process of making as much ice as possible. I don't have a protected area outside to run my generator so I could have no juice for 48 hours before its dry enough to crank up the genny.

I'm using my kid's sandcastle molds to make ice blocks. I suggest everyone should do the same.

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I have a generator and I'm in the process of making as much ice as possible. I don't have a protected area outside to run my generator so I could have no juice for 48 hours before its dry enough to crank up the genny.

I'm using my kid's sandcastle molds to make ice blocks. I suggest everyone should do the same.

You, sir, are a genius.

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I have a generator and I'm in the process of making as much ice as possible. I don't have a protected area outside to run my generator so I could have no juice for 48 hours before its dry enough to crank up the genny.

I'm using my kid's sandcastle molds to make ice blocks. I suggest everyone should do the same.

I would prepare more, but down this way it doesn't look to be as high of an impact, though we are in for some strong NW winds coming off the mountains for an extended period. Looks to be solely a wind event here, with little precipitation, unless the Euro is correct and we get some snow/rain and wind.

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