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Sandy Obs and Banter thread - fall 2012


mappy

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I smell a big letdown coming.

There's conflicting interpretations of the model outputs between mets in here and, for example, the CWG posts. For example, Jason posts that the worst winds and rain would happen with the VA-Delmarva hit. Others in here have posted that the worst wind/rain combo would be a NJ hit.

The write-up in the CWG post this afternoon about the "worst case scenario" for the DC area (away from the shoreline) actually isn't far from what we've experienced fairly recently-- just a rainier Isabel or a slightly windier Irene.

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WSW for high elevations of West Virginia

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV

349 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...

.THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHERN

WEST VIRGINIA...TO INTERACT WITH A STALLING COLD FRONT...AND ITS

ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

WVZ038-046-047-270400-

/O.NEW.KRLX.WS.A.0004.121029T0600Z-121031T0000Z/

WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COWEN...MARLINTON...ELKINS

349 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH

TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH

TUESDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...POCAHONTAS...RANDOLPH...WEBSTER COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 10 INCHES. HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE

HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WILL START LATE SUNDAY

NIGHT. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH

TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS...

CAUSING POWER OUTAGES OR FLUCTUATIONS. UNTREATED ROADS MAY

BECOME VERY SLICK ACROSS THE HIGHER WINDWARD TERRAIN.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FROM THE LOWER 30S UPPER VALLEYS...RANGING TO THE

UPPER 20S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

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they shut down bus and rail service at 11 am. the federal government had already announced on Wednesday that it would close on Thursday, and it was closed again on Friday. Metro service did resume, as best it could, on Friday.

if the storm stays in its current track I would guess that Metro and the feds would be shut down on Monday and Tuesday.

You may be right. I heard on WTOP that AA county is opening Annapolis HS as an emergency shelter beginning at 3PM on Sunday. Unless the forecast track changes drastically, it makes me wonder if they've already decided schools will be out Monday.

By the way, apparently "Frankenstorm" is a meteorological term. The anchor on WTOP also said, and said it several times I should add, that "hurricane Sandy will turn into a 'Frankenstorm.'"

I hate the media.

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There's conflicting interpretations of the model outputs between mets in here and, for example, the CWG posts. For example, Jason posts that the worst winds and rain would happen with the VA-Delmarva hit. Others in here have posted that the worst wind/rain combo would be a NJ hit.

The write-up in the CWG post this afternoon about the "worst case scenario" for the DC area (away from the shoreline) actually isn't far from what we've experienced fairly recently-- just a rainier Isabel or a slightly windier Irene.

Tropical storms in this area are generally not very exciting. If we didn't have third-world power infrastructure we'd barely even remember these things.

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they shut down bus and rail service at 11 am. the federal government had already announced on Wednesday that it would close on Thursday, and it was closed again on Friday. Metro service did resume, as best it could, on Friday.

if the storm stays in its current track I would guess that Metro and the feds would be shut down on Monday and Tuesday.

I remember Isabel in 2003, and yes, the Metro shut down many stations (did they shut the entire system down?). I think some of the underground stations flooded out, too, didn't they? Also, at the time I was living in the Capitol Hill neighborhood and that's the only time the power ever went out where I was at. Probably due to some switch getting flooded, as of course there are no power lines in that area.

You may be right. I heard on WTOP that AA county is opening Annapolis HS as an emergency shelter beginning at 3PM on Sunday. Unless the forecast track changes drastically, it makes me wonder if they've already decided schools will be out Monday.

By the way, apparently "Frankenstorm" is a meteorological term. The anchor on WTOP also said, and said it several times I should add, that "hurricane Sandy will turn into a 'Frankenstorm.'"

I hate the media.

I think with curent indications, it's fairly likely schools will be closed Monday (and maybe Tuesday, Wednesday?). Fed. Gov't closure is certainly a possibility, especially if the Metro, MARC, VRE, etc. are having problems.

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I wouldn't be all that concerned if it was simply a cat 1 landfall. It clearly isn't that simple here. Downplaying is a bit shortsighted. Not saying this is Armageddon or anything crazy but all aspects need to be consideted

Just look at sat/radar. A full conus latitude coldfront and strong jet is just to our west. Big honkin hp up in Canada. The gradient squeeze on the west side of the storm after landfall is intense.

We've all experienced plenty of strong noreasters. N-NW winds down here after the storm cruises up to NE can easily gust to 40mph. 40 sounds cool against the house but it really doesn't do that much. However, we all know what even brief widespread 60mph gusts can do. I don't even want to know what long duration 60mph gusts can do but it's looking pretty likely that we are going to find out.

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