eurojosh Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Is it too early now to say that this won't be the near-apocalyptic event some of the models were showing 48 hours ago? We're now talking about a decaying category 1; sure, damage to Jersey shore, significant storm surge coming under the Verrazano, heavy early snows in WV, and power outages (inevitably) in MD/NoVa - but nothing nearly as threatening or disastrous as could have been. Edit: Yes, I know it's also a phasing storm, so traditional Cat 1 definitions don't apply - but I think the rest of the description, plus wider wind field, does, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What did you think it was going to do before that it is not now? The only thing that seems significantly changed as far as sensible weather in the LWX area is probably a bit less rain if the 12z Euro verified compared to the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What did you think it was going to do before that it is not now? The only thing that seems significantly changed as far as sensible weather in the LWX area is probably a bit less rain if the 12z Euro verified compared to the 0z. Maybe I got a bit carried away by some of the apoco-talk in the SNE forum (ctblizz, e.g.), but even some mets are still saying 'wow, never seen anything like this.' There was talk of 'good bye Fire Island,' for example. Living in NYC in the early '90s I remember a couple of good Nor'Easters that flooded the subway and the FDR; this seems similar, but perhaps a wider area. Or am I missing something historic (apart from the set-up)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 There still is the possibility of some extreme damage to coastal areas given the surge possibilities with a tidal boost. Still possibilities of some extended power outages for MANY people. I'd have to see the 12z Euro wind forecasts, but going off of previous runs, a landfall a bit farther away from us may paradoxically give us stronger winds. For the LWX area, the 12z runs mean 2 things immediately to me: later start of serious weather (by 18 hours or so) and somewhat less rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MineralFrosty Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 DT...scrambling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 True, but I'm amazed at the new found love for the GFS. The Euro had unanimous love, while everyone hated on the GFS. The gfs is decent not sure why people hate jt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What's Bob Ryan's Twitter account? I think bobryanabc7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I hope this north trends arent foreshadowing this winters habits. Reminds me of 09-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 There still is the possibility of some extreme damage to coastal areas given the surge possibilities with a tidal boost. Still possibilities of some extended power outages for MANY people. I'd have to see the 12z Euro wind forecasts, but going off of previous runs, a landfall a bit farther away from us may paradoxically give us stronger winds. For the LWX area, the 12z runs mean 2 things immediately to me: later start of serious weather (by 18 hours or so) and somewhat less rain. Right - but that's no comparison to, say, 1938. A couple of days ago that comparison was being made. All I'm asking is, is that discussion now moot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What did you think it was going to do before that it is not now? The only thing that seems significantly changed as far as sensible weather in the LWX area is probably a bit less rain if the 12z Euro verified compared to the 0z. I don't think it changes much yet but in this range many storms will still end up trending further east for landfall. A Long Island hit might not be too intense here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The Katrina flooding was out of control, but unique to the very low elevation there. The Derecho was bad but it was over in about an hour (damage nothwithstanding). So, I don't know what people expect for "Katrina levels" of damage. Flooding of that magnitude? Not really possible given that we don't have miles of low-lying topography once you get away from the water. But, 100,000 people without power for 2 weeks? I could see it. 48 hours of near T.S. winds over very populated areas? I think just clearing the trees from roads could take a week or more. I live inside the beltway and I expect at least a week and we might leave town (not sure where we can go and avoid damage, but that's a different discussion.) I'm betting on government shutdown levels of destruction. Call me a hype machine, or whatever, but this looks very, very bad. THis was my thinking. I'm considering a natural gas generator. But not at this time. But definitely in the next 12 months. Power outages are becoming more frequent. For this storm, we considered a portable generator. But it's just two of us and we don't have THAT much food in the fridge that we'll loose. Like you, I'm considering just leaving town. What I would spend on a portable generator $500 - $1000, I could stand to spend in a hotel for a few days somewhere away from the carnage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 My oldest had just turned 3 when Isabel hit. I left work early (to a deserted beltway from Capitol Heights-Bethesda) as the winds were increasing. When I got home, my son asked me if the storm was going to knock our house down. I reassured him we'd be OK. Then the power went out minutes later and within the next hour, a large oak tree fell on the house across the street. He asked again if I was sure. With no power, I was left to wonder what conditions would become next, but that was actually the worst of it. Electricity came back 4 days later. Classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't think it changes much yet but in this range many storms will still end up trending further east for landfall. A Long Island hit might not be too intense here Yup. I've been telling folks personally a MD/DE/NJ/Long Island hit the whole time and I don't think this changes that range. I'd be surprised at a SNE hit at this point, but the East Coast is so north-south oriented, a small change in placement now or a turn in another day or two can make a big difference to landfall location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 One good thing for my neighborhood and house specifically is that most of the leaves are gone on the trees around my house. Hopefully that lessons the surface area fo the winds to push against. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Personally, I hope it keeps trending east. Let somebody else deal with this mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro snow... A chance at even a bit of snow is interesting me just as much as the chance of high winds/rain. Anyone think we have a shot at any snow especially leesburg west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Congrats to CWG! They made it to the Huffington Post Front Page. Well, at least in one of the tag lines. Meteorologist 'At A Loss For Expletives To Describe What Storm Could Do' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Still looka nw movement/jogs on visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro snow... A chance at even a bit of snow is interesting me just as much as the chance of high winds/rain. Anyone think we have a shot at any snow especially leesburg west? You'd have to head to the mountains. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I bagged a ton of leaves today. I'm now sitting on the deck drinking a beer and watching them be replaced at a fairly steady rate. I hate leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Leaves are falling and piling up like snow in the Sierras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeromus-X Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What kind of time frame are we looking at for snow in WVA? I need to drive from Va Beach to Huntington WV on Tuesday, and then to St Louis on Wednesday. Should I maybe start re-thinking those plans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I bagged a ton of leaves today. I'm now sitting on the deck drinking a beer and watching them be replaced at a fairly steady rate. I hate leaves. People may call me lazy, but I wait until all the leaves are pretty much on the ground. I live in a wooded area. So, I get leaves from other neighbor's trees. Now way I'm getting out there two or three different times I'm actually waiting to see if the storm blows them all out of my yard. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Make sure your children do their homework on Sunday night folks.... One of my tragic nightmare memories from winters past was hearing it was going to snow and then not doing my homework only to wake up to sunny skies.....fun times...good memories... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 $1 billion dollars in damages is pennies compared to these hurricanes adjusting for inflation. http://storymaps.esri.com/stories/2012/top-ten-hurricanes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wondering how the city of DC will handle this event. If the Euro, Euro Ensembles, or even GFS verified we'd have quite a storm. Hearing they might shut MTA in NYC, I wonder if Metro might shut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wish I would have been compiling unsubstantiated info being passed like wildfire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I would guess Metro would follow the same procedures it did for Isabel. Can't have people being blown off raised platforms onto the tracks now can we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I would guess Metro would follow the same procedures it did for Isabel. Wasn't living in this area then. What happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think its really interesting that some of the stronger impacts will be further from the center of the storm. A lot of people are eager to be impacted directly by the center but that may bring calmer conditions with the exception of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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