Sandy Obs and Banter thread - fall 2012

[mappy]

Hat tip to combined weenieism of messenger and blizz for their analysis of nam at 84 in the NE thread. with apologies to the departed bethesda boy, i've never quite seen the like. Its PhD level weenieism.

Sent from my DROIDX 2

We've got Yoda and the NOGAPS

[H2O]

Hat tip to combined weenieism of messenger and blizz for their analysis of nam at 84 in the NE thread. with apologies to the departed bethesda boy, i've never quite seen the like. Its PhD level weenieism.

Sent from my DROIDX 2

1 down, 4 to go

[feloniousq]

There is no disincentive to hyping anymore.. it's all pure gain. At worst you can say "the models were wrong BUT it was oh so close to the worst nightmare ever."

Agreed. People made fun of the Irene hype, but if the track had even been a few miles different there would have been a much different impact.

It seems unavoidable that someone on the East Coast is going to see severe impact from this storm. Given the uncertainty and given that a lot of people are going to tune out for the weekend (it's amazing how many people still don't even know about the storm where I live and work, with only 2-3 days until major effects would be felt), I think overhype remains far preferable to underhype.

[Fozz]

Certainly wasn't lame for me. It knocked a tree onto my raised deck. Didn't loose power though. So, I can see what you're saying in that regard. At least in the derecho, I lost power for 36 hours.

Isabel certainly was far from lame.

Understood. I just expected more rain and at the time I didn't care about a few branches being knocked.......of course those near the bay or a river were outright devestated.

I was 13 at the time, less interested in the wind aspect, so those of you who don't like me (not you two), this is your chance to flame me away

[yoda]

We've got Yoda and the NOGAPS

At least it has a higher score than the 84 hr NAM... and I used NOGAPS to correlate track path

[SlowerLowerDE]

Sitting here in southern Delaware I have to agree with Windspeeds' post. We are ready here. We have a 10K propane genny with full tanks. Plenty of food and water stocked. With that said I would hate to see the barrier islands and coastal towns damaged. The 1962 storm cut the Indian River Inlet so we know these storms can do big damage.

I also don't want to see anyplace else torn up either. I'm for seeing severe weakening of the storm. Hope we get Ian's breeze and everyone can imagine what it might have been.

[needbiggerboat]

Yeah, i always thought that too, until the tornado ripped slate off my roof and rain poured in, or Irene peeled caps of my gable ends of my garage roof, ripped siding and facia off the house, then it wasn't cool anymore.

Yeah I though TCs were cool until Isabel went through MBY

[North Balti Zen]

He aint discussing it the nogaps, Just posting it. They are discussing what the wind fields are in the 84 hour panel...

Sent from my DROIDX 2

[MN Transplant]

There is no disincentive to hyping anymore.. it's all pure gain. At worst you can say "the models were wrong BUT it was oh so close to the worst nightmare ever."

The problem is that this could end up being very significant meteorologically because it is very unique and effects will extend over a huge region. However, in any one spot, this may not be even the most significant impact this year. So, even though damages may end up in the billions, people will be like "well, that wasn't nearly as bad as the derecho."

[nw baltimore wx]

He aint discussing it the nogaps, Just posting it. They are discussing what the wind fields are in the 84 hour panel...

Sent from my DROIDX 2

Wait until they extrapolate hour 90.

[mappy]

Wait until they extrapolate hour 90.

[usedtobe]

Understood. I just expected more rain and at the time I didn't care about a few branches being knocked.......of course those near the bay or a river were outright devestated.

I was 13 at the time, less interested in the wind aspect, so those of you who don't like me (not you two), this is your chance to flame me away

Well if you lived near the bay it was a big deal. The biggest storm surge ever for Baltimore harbor, lots of damage along the west side of the bay from the storm surge and coastal flooding. I lost my power for 4 days. It's all about everyone mby. Unless a storm ends up with Katrina type damage, people who weren't impacted by the storm think is's overhyped. Not sure what do about it as this storm will be less bad in some areas than people are expecting. That's the nature of weather. Ian calls it a win-win. I guess for the facebook and twitter generation it is but for a forecaster it's not. Most of us don't like being called hypers or idiots.

[H2O]

Well if you lived near the bay it was a big deal. The biggest storm surge ever for Baltimore harbor, lots of damage along the west side of the bay from the storm surge and coastal flooding. I lost my power for 4 days. It's all about everyone mby. Unless a storm ends up with Katrina type damage, people who weren't impacted by the storm think is's overhyped. Not sure what do about it as this storm will be less bad in some areas than people are expecting. That's the nature of weather. Ian calls it a win-win. I guess for the facebook and twitter generation it is but for a forecaster it's not. Most of us don't like being called hypers or idiots.

It was hard to sleep the night of Isabel. I woke up to a neighbors tree in my yard and branches brushing up against a window to the room my then toddler son slept in. Agreed on IMBY effects. Depends on where one was.

[JamieOber]

Well if you lived near the bay it was a big deal. The biggest storm surge ever for Baltimore harbor, lots of damage along the west side of the bay from the storm surge and coastal flooding. I lost my power for 4 days. It's all about everyone mby. Unless a storm ends up with Katrina type damage, people who weren't impacted by the storm think is's overhyped. Not sure what do about it as this storm will be less bad in some areas than people are expecting. That's the nature of weather. Ian calls it a win-win. I guess for the facebook and twitter generation it is but for a forecaster it's not. Most of us don't like being called hypers or idiots.

Last year people were mocking forecasters for overhyping a "lame" Irene while people in VT were facing the worst storm of their lives and losing everything. I think that the "if it's not IMBY then it never happened" is understandable but not good. For one thing, I read last year that Red Cross donations to help people hit hard by Irene in various areas were way below other storms. Likely due to people clinging to the idea that the weather guy was wrong again.

[ThePhotoGuy]

I don't think this was posted yet but...

Governor McDonnell Declares State of Emergency in Preparation for Hurricane Sandy

– Long Duration Storm Has Potential to Produce Extensive Power Outages; Significant Flooding –

Impact in Commonwealth to Begin Saturday Night, Possibly Continue Through Wednesday; Storm Will be Followed by Colder Temperatures

RICHMOND - Governor Bob McDonnell has declared a state of emergency in Virginia in preparation for Hurricane Sandy, which is anticipated to affect the Commonwealth over the weekend and early next week. There is some uncertainty with the storm's final track, but all forecasts call for significant impacts to Virginia. Sandy will be transitioning to an extratropical storm as it reaches Virginia, leading to a broader wind field with a wider reach across the Commonwealth. In addition, current models predict a slower storm and therefore a longer duration event than usual.

http://www.governor.virginia.gov/News/viewrelease.cfm?id=1473

[Don Cherry's Jacket]

Unless a storm ends up with Katrina type damage, people who weren't impacted by the storm think is's overhyped. Not sure what do about it as this storm will be less bad in some areas than people are expecting.

The Katrina flooding was out of control, but unique to the very low elevation there. The Derecho was bad but it was over in about an hour (damage nothwithstanding).

So, I don't know what people expect for "Katrina levels" of damage. Flooding of that magnitude? Not really possible given that we don't have miles of low-lying topography once you get away from the water. But, 100,000 people without power for 2 weeks? I could see it. 48 hours of near T.S. winds over very populated areas? I think just clearing the trees from roads could take a week or more. I live inside the beltway and I expect at least a week and we might leave town (not sure where we can go and avoid damage, but that's a different discussion.) I'm betting on government shutdown levels of destruction. Call me a hype machine, or whatever, but this looks very, very bad.

[Fozz]

Well if you lived near the bay it was a big deal. The biggest storm surge ever for Baltimore harbor, lots of damage along the west side of the bay from the storm surge and coastal flooding. I lost my power for 4 days. It's all about everyone mby. Unless a storm ends up with Katrina type damage, people who weren't impacted by the storm think is's overhyped. Not sure what do about it as this storm will be less bad in some areas than people are expecting. That's the nature of weather. Ian calls it a win-win. I guess for the facebook and twitter generation it is but for a forecaster it's not. Most of us don't like being called hypers or idiots.

I never mocked any forecasters or called them overhypers or idiots, I know much better than that. Like I said, it was just my 13 year old self wanting a more direct hit. Lots of leaves and some branches fell IMBY, but luckily my home never lost power, though many others in my town did.

[usedtobe]

I never mocked any forecasters or called them overhypers or idiots, I know much better than that. Like I said, it was just my 13 year old self wanting a more direct hit. Lots of leaves and some branches fell IMBY, but luckily my home never lost power, though many others in my town did.

I know you didn't but if you read cwg or any other site like it, there are lots of comments about overhype, before, during and after most storms unless it crushes them.

[WVclimo]

It was hard to sleep the night of Isabel. I woke up to a neighbors tree in my yard and branches brushing up against a window to the room my then toddler son slept in. Agreed on IMBY effects. Depends on where one was.

My oldest had just turned 3 when Isabel hit. I left work early (to a deserted beltway from Capitol Heights-Bethesda) as the winds were increasing. When I got home, my son asked me if the storm was going to knock our house down. I reassured him we'd be OK.

Then the power went out minutes later and within the next hour, a large oak tree fell on the house across the street. He asked again if I was sure. With no power, I was left to wonder what conditions would become next, but that was actually the worst of it. Electricity came back 4 days later.

[Avdave]

I don't think this was posted yet but...

Governor McDonnell Declares State of Emergency in Preparation for Hurricane Sandy

– Long Duration Storm Has Potential to Produce Extensive Power Outages; Significant Flooding –

Impact in Commonwealth to Begin Saturday Night, Possibly Continue Through Wednesday; Storm Will be Followed by Colder Temperatures

RICHMOND - Governor Bob McDonnell has declared a state of emergency in Virginia in preparation for Hurricane Sandy, which is anticipated to affect the Commonwealth over the weekend and early next week. There is some uncertainty with the storm's final track, but all forecasts call for significant impacts to Virginia. Sandy will be transitioning to an extratropical storm as it reaches Virginia, leading to a broader wind field with a wider reach across the Commonwealth. In addition, current models predict a slower storm and therefore a longer duration event than usual.

http://www.governor....ase.cfm?id=1473

Maryland just followed suite with a state of emergency

http://www.wusa9.com/news/article/226945/44/Md-Governor-Declares-State-Of-Emergency-Before-Hurricane-Sandy

[Fozz]

I know you didn't but if you read cwg or any other site like it, there are lots of comments about overhype, before, during and after most storms unless it crushes them.

Yes, it's extremely annoying, and it sucks that the JB/Henry M types ruin the profession for everyone else. Whenever anyone asks me about where to check the weather, I make sure they go nowhere near those types, but also try to explain how well most mets usually do their jobs and save lives, something that people (even my parents to some extent) can't seem to appreciate.

I believe JamieO knows of the stats showing how often they are right, and I also read a NYT or Washington post article (can't remember which paper) not too long ago explaining how well hurricane forecasting has improved in the past 25 years or so, and what it means not only in terms of saving lives, but also warning the right areas to go out of their way to prepare/evacuate.

[ThePhotoGuy]

Maryland just followed suite with a state of emergency

http://www.wusa9.com...Hurricane-Sandy

Thanks Dave! I saw some information on Twitter but couldn't find any articles.

[sauss06]

Maryland just followed suite with a state of emergency

http://www.wusa9.com...Hurricane-Sandy

many others to soon follow that lead.

[Ian]

The problem is that this could end up being very significant meteorologically because it is very unique and effects will extend over a huge region. However, in any one spot, this may not be even the most significant impact this year. So, even though damages may end up in the billions, people will be like "well, that wasn't nearly as bad as the derecho."

I have no doubt that it can end up significant and it seems like there is a strong chance it will be. However, there is a clear connection between using flowery language and getting extra views/retweets/reshares etc. It's obviously irresistible to just about everyone involved to "go there." I'm not really trying to call anyone out but there is a fine line between trying to inform and trying to excite for revenue/fame/etc. As far as I can tell that line gets crossed more and more these days... tho of course everyone involved acts like they are in it for purely altruistic reasons.

[LongRanger]

hmm, 936mb, so maybe I'll finally get to see the needle of my old aneroid barometer point to "Stormy"

[WxUSAF]

CTBlizz and SNE weenies about to start lovin' them some GFS.

[Ian]

CTBlizz and SNE weenies about to start lovin' them some GFS.

Just like we love the Euro... everyone is a hometown fan to some degree.

[stormtracker]

Just like we love the Euro... everyone is a hometown fan to some degree.

True, but I'm amazed at the new found love for the GFS. The Euro had unanimous love, while everyone hated on the GFS.

[Avdave]

Thanks Dave! I saw some information on Twitter but couldn't find any articles.

No problem

many others to soon follow that lead.

For sure, I bet PA will have one soon enough, especially for where you are bro. So prone to flooding there and easily too with the amount of water

[stormtracker]

I have no doubt that it can end up significant and it seems like there is a strong chance it will be. However, there is a clear connection between using flowery language and getting extra views/retweets/reshares etc. It's obviously irresistible to just about everyone involved to "go there." I'm not really trying to call anyone out but there is a fine line between trying to inform and trying to excite for revenue/fame/etc. As far as I can tell that line gets crossed more and more these days... tho of course everyone involved acts like they are in it for purely altruistic reasons.

What's Bob Ryan's Twitter account?