mappy Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 From Adam this morning: Euro is too far west. It's too strong with the remnants of Sandy and a stronger system comes farther west more quickly. GFS is on drugs, too. Multi-model ensemble consensus is the way to go, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 From Adam this morning: Copy paster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 For the next to nothing that its worth... 06z NAM looks like the EURO/NOGAPS idea and by 84 hrs heavy rain is entering DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 For the next to nothing that its worth... 06z NAM looks like the EURO/NOGAPS idea and by 84 hrs heavy rain is entering DCA who cares about the NAM at this range, or the NOGAPs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 who cares about the NAM at this range, or the NOGAPs? NAM is in the banter thread... and NOGAPS has been consistent like the EURO past 6b runs and looks almost exactly like it so it shows some consensus... unless you want the wild swings of the GFS... and the GGEM/UK swinging wildly as well... those two models have been locked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 NAM is in the banter thread... and NOGAPS has been consistent like the EURO past 6b runs and looks almost exactly like it so it shows some consensus... unless you want the wild swings of the GFS... and the GGEM/UK swinging wildly as well... those two models have been locked in Oh I know - but you have done a damn good job posting it In. Every. Subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 who cares about the NAM at this range, or the NOGAPs? Won't defend NAM at 84, but I thought I read in other threads from maybe some of the tropical red taggers that the NOGAPS was actually a good model for hurricanes and these kind of systems. Dunno if that is right or not, but they were not as dismissive of it in this scenario as it is perhaps okay to be for a pure winter set-up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think the gfs is likely wrong. I keep going back to what agnes did with an upper low. I don't know whether the new euro and gfdl which take the storm and track it just north of us are right. They seem to be extreme solution but when almost every ensemble member from all the different centers are saying a hit somewhere from the mid atlantic to new england is going to get hit. It's pretty wise to start talking about amjor impacts as this storm is likely to have them even if the pressures are forecast quite a bit too low. This is all I need. I'm in now and starting up The Bus . Hi Ian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Oh I know - but you have done a damn good job posting it In. Every. Subforum. He is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 That being said, anybody have the latest Korean model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Oh I know - but you have done a damn good job posting it In. Every. Subforum. Huh? Here, PHL, and SNE. That's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 That being said, anybody have the latest Korean model? CT Blizz has probably posted it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We need more COAMPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Huh? Here, PHL, and SNE. That's it probably bc metfan beat you to it in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NOGAPS ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Cut and paste discussions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Cut and paste discussions? Not time yet... when it closer you can count on me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We need more COAMPS. That still exists? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not time yet... when it closer you can count on me my day is never complete until you do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 We need more COAMPS. Does anyone have the CRAS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Cut and paste discussions? Friday through Wednesday: The Inland Northwest remains in an active and potentially rather soggy pattern as a train of systems come in from the Pacific. Temperatures and snow levels will begin to rise by late this weekend. The first shortwave system arrives Friday, with a warm front and occlusion pushing across the Cascades and stretching through the southern CWA. Strengthening isentropic ascent meets with deepening moisture in the 290-300K layer from Chelan county through the Palouse, leading to increasing PRECIPITATION through the morning to early afternoon. This expands across the remainder of the CWA through the afternoon. Throughout the day, however, the best lift and moisture and highest PRECIPITATION chances and amounts are directed across the southwest half of the CWA. Much lighter PRECIPITATION amounts are projected across the Northeast Mountains through northern Panhandle. By Friday night the weakening shortwave and slackening isentropic lifts pushes the focus for PRECIPITATION toward the mountain and southeast zones, while it wanes in the lee of the Cascades and deeper Basin. Based on 850mb temperatures between -1 to -3 C and wet-bulb zero heights, snow levels will be near valley floors during morning except across the Basin/Moses Lake area where they will be between 2500-3500 feet. By afternoon the mean snow levels across the CWA rises to between 3000-4000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What's the over/under on when grocery store panic ensues in the metro area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Media Hype Watch: Effective 5pm Tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Media Hype Watch: Effective 5pm Tonight? Most likely - Ive heard rumbles of it on all news casts I have listened to since last night. Was even mentioned on the nightly news. But its been only mentions, nothing serious. Id imagine if the Euro holds serve today, and if the GFS starts to show the same... the news will be all over it tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Does anyone have the CRAS? By my trained eye it looks NAMish and NOGAPSy with a slight hint of euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ok cool - Ill add the CRAS to the "on board for death and destruction" list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Darn... not GFDLily? Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Media Hype Watch: Effective 5pm Tonight? I'm using the DT FB scale. more posts and spelling errors the worse it will be. if i see a post titled: Eurro set to hit Whallops Is, Major damge to I-495 then i will freak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm using the DT FB scale. more posts and spelling errors the worse it will be. if i see a post titled: Eurro set to hit Whallops Is, Major damge to I-495 then i will freak. That's a good scale....spelling errors to post ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 We can add another model to the list of death and destruction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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