Fozz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Fuzzie i was here all summer but i just lurk because summer weather does not excite me like winter weather. The derecho was awesome though. I hope you had a great summer. Derecho was decent but I was a bit fringed, still a great season with lots of storms to track and chase. Summer was good, went to the Amwx conf (met a lot of the crowd there!) and then a vacation to Puerto Rico. So did you end up moving or are you still around my neck of the woods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Derecho was decent but I was a bit fringed, still a great season with lots of storms to track and chase. Summer was good, went to the Amwx conf (met a lot of the crowd there!) and then a vacation to Puerto Rico. So did you end up moving or are you still around my neck of the woods? No i moved to southern Baltimore County by the beltway at exit 22, that will probably cost me 2 or 3" every winter. The house is much nicer though and the kids are much happier so all is good. Another benefit is i got a whole home generator in the new house, so no power outages to worry about with this storm if it hits us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 No i moved to southern Baltimore County by the beltway at exit 22, that will probably cost me 2 or 3" every winter. The house is much nicer though and the kids are much happier so all is good. Another benefit is i got a whole home generator in the new house, so no power outages to worry about with this storm if it hits us. Still not far from me, I've always been near exit 23 a little north. Glad you like the new home, always cool to have a generator too. And maybe we'll see real snow this year....... *fingers crossed* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My forecast is that this will be nothing but some breezy showers for the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Still not far from me, I've always been near exit 23 a little north. Glad you like the new home, always cool to have a generator too. And maybe we'll see real snow this year....... *fingers crossed* I think i am about 6 or 7 miles south of you now, at least we should for sure get more than last year. I don't know anything but i get the feeling we see at least 20" in our area this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not feeling it. Big letdown coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not feeling it. Big letdown coming. The odds are with you so that is probably why you are not feeling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The odds are with you so that is probably why you are not feeling it. Yep. Using DC as an example.....they've had something like 4 or 5 days with accumulating snowfall during the month of October since they started keeping record of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yep. Using DC as an example.....they've had something like 4 or 5 days with accumulating snowfall during the month of October since they started keeping record of it. I'm not really talking about snow. I have a feeling the storm won't live up to potential overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm often too pessimistic but I sorta think the GFS will end up "righter." The euro solutions are just eye candy IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 When I see I the NHC forecast track hit the coast, I will start to get interested. Until then ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm often too pessimistic but I sorta think the GFS will end up "righter." The euro solutions are just eye candy IMO. Usually in forecasting pessimisim makes you right 90% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 tv mets. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Usually in forecasting pessimisim makes you right 90% of the time. Sometimes, certainly not most of the time, but sometimes, the significant event does occur. That's the feeling I have with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sometimes, certainly not most of the time, but sometimes, the significant event does occur. That's the feeling I have with Sandy. I think even big names are taking these extremely deep pressures etc too much verbatim. HPC has, as usual, about the best look with their longer term guidance on low placement/strength. Everyone seems to think it can't slip out east but there are ways for it to happen.. and just like 36 hours ago most people were saying that was going to happen. Too much model hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sometimes, certainly not most of the time, but sometimes, the significant event does occur. That's the feeling I have with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 5AM has to shift left I mean come on. Great analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Great analysis. Ya the models are all left. Hurricane models as well. What are they going to do, shift east cause the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ya the models are all left. Hurricane models as well. What are they going to do, shift east cause the GFS... The image you posted showed a pretty decent amount of models that were east of the track. While the majority were west, that's been the case all along compared to the NHC track. The 5am update pretty much stayed the course, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It will correct north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Tricky for me down here in Virginia beach....hmmn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm often too pessimistic but I sorta think the GFS will end up "righter." The euro solutions are just eye candy IMO. I think the gfs is likely wrong. I keep going back to what agnes did with an upper low. I don't know whether the new euro and gfdl which take the storm and track it just north of us are right. They seem to be extreme solution but when almost every ensemble member from all the different centers are saying a hit somewhere from the mid atlantic to new england is going to get hit. It's pretty wise to start talking about amjor impacts as this storm is likely to have them even if the pressures are forecast quite a bit too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think the gfs is likely wrong. I keep going back to what agnes did with an upper low. I don't know whether the new euro and gfdl which take the storm and track it just north of us are right. They seem to be extreme solution but when almost every ensemble member from all the different centers are saying a hit somewhere from the mid atlantic to new england is going to get hit. It's pretty wise to start talking about amjor impacts as this storm is likely to have them even if the pressures are forecast quite a bit too low. 2 runs back to back of the euro in generally the same place and if it is right the DC area won't get the total worst of it but there will still be enough wind/rain to make things very messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I don't want landfall south of Jersey because I want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The Irene pressure forecasts from the Euro, hurricane models, etc. were extreme in the mid-range too. Remember how Irene was "supposed" to be a 930-940 mb hurricane for the east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The Irene pressure forecasts from the Euro, hurricane models, etc. were extreme in the mid-range too. Remember how Irene was "supposed" to be a 930-940 mb hurricane for the east coast? Completely different setup though... kinda hard to compare with this particular storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Completely different setup though... kinda hard to compare with this particular storm. True but I bet they are still too deep. I still the wind field was pretty broad and I had my power knocked out by Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 True but I bet they are still too deep. I still the wind field was pretty broad and I had my power knocked out by Irene. Indeed. Winds up on the mountains should be fun in addition to whatever the coastal areas get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Completely different setup though... kinda hard to compare with this particular storm. Right.. the Euro though has already started to come back up in forecasted pressure. My point is that a 930 mb pressure is a very unlikely outcome. Even the most historic of east coast storms didn't reach 930 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 True but I bet they are still too deep. I still the wind field was pretty broad and I had my power knocked out by Irene. Yeah Irene did a bunch of damage way inland at my house, power outages, shingles ripped off the roof, soffit and facia torn off......so yeah, the wind always gets my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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