Sandy speculation thread

[snowlord81]

Ohio looks to catch the worst of the wind in the subforum, but further west here in IN the 00z NAM shows 925 winds anywhere from 40-50 knots. And I wonder how far west this thing could retrograde after 84 hours? Hoosier, how is the inversion (or is there one on the NAM) Your the man when it comes to wind potentials! Everyone in Ohio, time to hunker down, its going to be windy for 2 days there.

[Chicago Storm]

All the way over in IL too ya thinks?

Well that was for LM, which would impact IN/MI.

Since you mention it though, far E. WI and NE. IL are on the edge.

[OHweather]

Just a bit of an analog for the wind potential...the most recent strong north wind event over northern Ohio.

April 23, 2012...a low pressure system that bottomed out in the high 980s tracked into eastern NY...with a 1020mb high over MN. Per Wunderground, gusts in northern Ohio reached 48 at KCLE...53 at KCAK...and 45 at KYNG...here is an archived HPC surface analysis valid 18z that afternoon:

This is the system that dropped a good amount of wet snow over the mountains of Western PA...and for a time threatened to spill into the extreme eastern portions of this subforum.

Here is the HPC day 4 forecast surface map:

By my math that is the somewhere around a 955mb low over the Delmarva...with pressures in the mid to upper 1020s over MN. This is a little farther away from our sub-forum than the 4/23/12 system was...however, the pressure gradient from MN to the Delmarva is somewhere around 70mb...as opposed to around 40mb on 4/23 over a slightly shorter distance.

This alone argues for much more significant gusts than the 45-50MPH gusts that occurred on 4/23. However, on that April day the sun was out over northern Ohio and mixing was half decent with cold air in the mid levels. Mixing will be weaker with clouds and precip in place on Monday night into Tuesday as Sandy moves west. However, I still think this comparison argues for 50-60MPH gusts over much of Ohio...and gusts over 40 over much of MI and IN, higher over the warmer lakes.

Then, remember that some models are driving the low west a bit faster than the HPC manual progs show, and well, the wind potential goes up even higher.

[snowlord81]

Just watching that phase, hurts, it is so "unnatural".

I agree, watching the 500 loop has been fun the last week. It does feel wierd. I find myself asking, how is this gonna work? And then boom!

[cyclone77]

Although nothing compared to areas to the east, even this far west we could get into some 20-30mph gusts from this thing. A non-event to be sure here, but still cool knowing the influences of this monster will be felt this far west.

[Stebo]

00z is lovely for SEMI...70 kts at 900mb, showing gusts to 50kts on the surface and some snow as well. Starting to look forward to this...

I approve of this

[Hoosier]

Ohio looks to catch the worst of the wind in the subforum, but further west here in IN the 00z NAM shows 925 winds anywhere from 40-50 knots. And I wonder how far west this thing could retrograde after 84 hours? Hoosier, how is the inversion (or is there one on the NAM) Your the man when it comes to wind potentials! Everyone in Ohio, time to hunker down, its going to be windy for 2 days there.

Looks like mixing above ~900 mb could be difficult.

[Stebo]

Just a bit of an analog for the wind potential...the most recent strong north wind event over northern Ohio.

April 23, 2012...a low pressure system that bottomed out in the high 980s tracked into eastern NY...with a 1020mb high over MN. Per Wunderground, gusts in northern Ohio reached 48 at KCLE...53 at KCAK...and 45 at KYNG...here is an archived HPC surface analysis valid 18z that afternoon:

This is the system that dropped a good amount of wet snow over the mountains of Western PA...and for a time threatened to spill into the extreme eastern portions of this subforum.

Here is the HPC day 4 forecast surface map:

By my math that is the somewhere around a 955mb low over the Delmarva...with pressures in the mid to upper 1020s over MN. This is a little farther away from our sub-forum than the 4/23/12 system was...however, the pressure gradient from MN to the Delmarva is somewhere around 70mb...as opposed to around 40mb on 4/23 over a slightly shorter distance.

This alone argues for much more significant gusts than the 45-50MPH gusts that occurred on 4/23. However, on that April day the sun was out over northern Ohio and mixing was half decent with cold air in the mid levels. Mixing will be weaker with clouds and precip in place on Monday night into Tuesday as Sandy moves west. However, I still think this comparison argues for 50-60MPH gusts over much of Ohio...and gusts over 40 over much of MI and IN, higher over the warmer lakes.

Then, remember that some models are driving the low west a bit faster than the HPC manual progs show, and well, the wind potential goes up even higher.

Great post I totally agree with your analysis.

[OHweather]

Great post I totally agree with your analysis.

Thanks.

I fear the amount of trees that will be downed near Lake Erie (and probably inland too if we can get gusts to push 60MPH away from the lake, which is a bit more uncertain) will be significant as Trent alluded to a page or two back...especially given the ground is actually pretty saturated out this way.

[Hoosier]

One of the notable trends on the 00z runs is that this thing has really sped up.

[snowlord81]

Looks like mixing above ~900 mb could be difficult.

Well if thats the case than i just got excited for nothing! Would still be breezy though just nothing extreme.

[Hoosier]

It's kinda hard to pinpoint right now but I think there's an area west and south of where the low tracks that has a shot at decent snow by late Oct standards. Buckeye's area in particular looks interesting.

[wisconsinwx]

If you compare the recent GFS Ensembles and the way they are trending, the retrogression appears to be much better on this side of Lake Michigan. Most of the ensembles for the 18z run show precip making it to this side of the lake, whereas less than half of the 12z ensembles showed the same. We'll see what 0z ensembles had to offer, but the OP looks quicker with the system which seems to allow the precip to move into the region on Tuesday night with very close 850 and 920 0C thicknesses.

[snowlover2]

0z Euro makes landfall around the VA/MD vicinity and weakens quite a bit afterwards. Then heads north through central PA and NY. Western and southwest Ohio get maybe an inch of snow going by Wundermap snowfall loop.

[PatrickSumner]

0z Euro makes landfall around the VA/MD vicinity and weakens quite a bit afterwards. Then heads north through central PA and NY. Western and southwest Ohio get maybe an inch of snow going by Wundermap snowfall loop.

00Z EURO still a windy scenario for a good portion of this sub-forum though.

[Hoosier]

00z Euro really slows down after landfall, very different than other 00z runs.

[PatrickSumner]

IND pulls the rain/snow wording for Tuesday night. How typical...lol

[andyhb]

A far less devestating run. Good to see. None of the foreign models were nearly as intense as NCEP, which gives some hope it won't be that bad. NCEP was just devestating.

What?

The Euro was more intense than the GFS at landfall. New Jersey gets absolutely raked in that scenario, and by no means is NYC or LI out of it at all in the Euro's case. The CMC/UK were along the lines of the GFS as well.

[SmokeEater]

A far less devestating run. Good to see. None of the foreign models were nearly as intense as NCEP, which gives some hope it won't be that bad. NCEP was just devestating.

The Euro is completely devastating for New Jersey, complete worse case scenario.

[Stebo]

Thanks.

I fear the amount of trees that will be downed near Lake Erie (and probably inland too if we can get gusts to push 60MPH away from the lake, which is a bit more uncertain) will be significant as Trent alluded to a page or two back...especially given the ground is actually pretty saturated out this way.

Yeah I have to agree here especially if Northern Ohio gets a decent amount of rain which the models are showing this to be the case.

[B-Rent]

Hopefully there are enough people/equipment to deal with all the power outages inland, because they are coming. My friend who lives in Cleveland is sure nothing big is coming except a "little wind".

I've heard locally that power companies and tree trimmers from the E MW/plains have been staging around the Ohio area.

[IWXwx]

Sandy is down to 957mb, lower than model predictions at this point. Hurricane force winds out 100 miles, TS winds out 450 miles from eye. Nice storm.

I'm wondering how the strength difference will affect the track. Will it reduce the amount of recurve? Will it make it more difficult for the trough to capture? Thoughts?

[tarheelwx]

I'm from NC but flying into Akron Monday morning and then driving to Lima Monday evening and a meeting in Piqua Tuesday morning. Does anyone think my flight will get cancelled (from Atlanta) and should I rent 4wd due to winter driving conditions.

Thanks

TarheelWX

[buckeye]

Sandy is down to 957mb, lower than model predictions at this point. Hurricane force winds out 100 miles, TS winds out 450 miles from eye. Nice storm.

I'm wondering how the strength difference will affect the track. Will it reduce the amount of recurve? Will it make it more difficult for the trough to capture? Thoughts?

it's a good question. I always was under the impression that a deeper system is more likely to hook left more. Although your point of making it more difficult for the trough to capture is also a good one.

[buckeye]

If nam is correct, ILN needs to change their Tuesday forecast. Intermittent drizzle, flakes, and 30-35 mph gusts ain't gonna cut it.

[SpartyOn]

I have this feeling that this is gonna be one of the most overhyped events we have seen is some time. There is no denying that the winds will be gusty and the rain will fall. But the apocalyptic aspect is way over done. I've even read a segment on the subways flooding and lower manhattan being covered by surge. Lol worthy guys.

[IWXwx]

I have this feeling that this is gonna be one of the most overhyped events we have seen is some time. There is no denying that the winds will be gusty and the rain will fall. But the apocalyptic aspect is way over done. I've even read a segment on the subways flooding and lower manhattan being covered by surge. Lol worthy guys.

I understand your skepticism about the hype, but if I suffered wind/flooding damage and was without power for several days, it would be a big deal to me.

[AppsRunner]

If nam is correct, ILN needs to change their Tuesday forecast. Intermittent drizzle, flakes, and 30-35 mph gusts ain't gonna cut it.

I'll take the NAM.... if only

I have this feeling that this is gonna be one of the most overhyped events we have seen is some time. There is no denying that the winds will be gusty and the rain will fall. But the apocalyptic aspect is way over done. I've even read a segment on the subways flooding and lower manhattan being covered by surge. Lol worthy guys.

Of course you would say that. While those two points you bring up are obviously exaggerated, it's still a dangerous system for the entire east coast.

[buckeye]

I often wonder what we would have all thought if we were back during the days leading up to Jan'78 blizzard, with all the models and tools available then that we have now. I wonder if we would have believed a 952mb over CLE. I bet there would have been some crazy model runs leading up to that monster.

[buckeye]

I'll take the NAM.... if only

Of course you would say that. While those two points you bring up are obviously exaggerated, it's still a dangerous system for the entire east coast.

lol...yea I was looking at the text soundings and the bulk of precip and highest winds all occur at the coldest temps during the event. Talk about threading the needle for snow, snow that would last about 12 hours... oh well, it would be fun to watch.