wisconsinwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The fact of the matter is it (GGEM) showed it first. To me a model that has consistently pegged a storm is more impressive than a model that pegged it a day earlier, but has been all over the place since. It's not like the Euro joined the GGEM camp b/c it knew the GGEM pegged it, it carved its consistent runs independent of other models. Btw, I'm not saying you're claiming the GGEM did better with this storm, I'm just making a separate point of discussion that the Euro did the best so far overall, if things go according to the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 I was wondering the same thing. I don't think many people in Toronto have a clue about this storm. It's expected to rain a lot this weekend with the passage of a slow-moving cold front. The addition of even more rain this weekend could really be a problem with the ground already being so saturated. Even without the OTS solution on the table, there's still a bit of uncertaintly. The 0z GGEM/12z GFS had Sandy stall in E NY/W SNE, which would have kept the heaviest rain to our east. The EURO also has been occluding the storm rapidly once it reaches PA, which tends to shear out the rain shield. So a flood event (at least river flooding) here is not a lock yet. With all the leaves covering the storm sewers though, even lesser QPF will probably cause some urban and small stream issues. Wind potential is a little more certain. Wind field for this thing is going to be huge, even if the center were to stay well to our E/SE. Plus, it's a good flow off lake Ontario to reduce the effect of friction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm not saying this will be another Ike but it's interesting how we're apparently on the way toward another anomalous strong wind event from a transitioned tropical system. The return rate on these is not very frequent in the OV/Lakes area. This is almost an ideal scenario in a way...it gets a baroclinic assist prior to landfall and will have a massive/expanding wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm not saying this will be another Ike but it's interesting how we're apparently on the way toward another anomalous strong wind event from a transitioned tropical system. Yet from a completely different direction. Cool stuff for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yet from a completely different direction. Cool stuff for sure. I was wondering about wether there has EVER been a remnant scenario with a storm coming from out East that effected areas so far to the west in the GL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 00z NAM is jacked. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yet from a completely different direction. Cool stuff for sure. Yeah, from a freak factor this is like 9.5 on a scale of 1-10. To get a system backing in from the east like this...very unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Even without the OTS solution on the table, there's still a bit of uncertaintly. The 0z GGEM/12z GFS had Sandy stall in E NY/W SNE, which would have kept the heaviest rain to our east. The EURO also has been occluding the storm rapidly once it reaches PA, which tends to shear out the rain shield. So a flood event (at least river flooding) here is not a lock yet. With all the leaves covering the storm sewers though, even lesser QPF will probably cause some urban and small stream issues. Wind potential is a little more certain. Wind field for this thing is going to be huge, even if the center were to stay well to our E/SE. Plus, it's a good flow off lake Ontario to reduce the effect of friction. NAM says hi. Though of course, it's the NAM doing tropical/sub-tropical stuff...and beyond 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Beau doing a snow chase to WV. Awesome. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37470-sandy-snow-chase-west-virginia/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Here's a look at the NAM for Monday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 There could be some monster waves on Lake Michigan especially if the western tracks pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Interesting to note that IWX, IND, and DTX don't seem to be mentioning the wind threat in there AFD's unless I missed something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Too bad this couldn't have happened later in the season or with more cold air available. I couldn't have drawn a better setup and storm track for a major blizzard in the eastern Ohio Valley than that depicted by the 00z NAM. I mean geez, a 958 mb bomb making landfall over NYC and tracking west into north central Pennsylvania. Where is this storm track during the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Most of the models imply some wind threat, but I really think there is a lot of potential for what could be a pretty significant wind event from Northern and Eastern Indiana into most of Ohio and Southeastern Michigan. Of course even higher winds possible near the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Too bad this couldn't have happened later in the season or with more cold air available. I couldn't have drawn a better setup and storm track for a major blizzard in the eastern Ohio Valley than that depicted by the 00z NAM. I mean geez, a 958 mb bomb making landfall over NYC and tracking west into north central Pennsylvania. Where is this storm track during the winter? Well you usually don't have the monster block over Greenland like we do here at any time of year, let alone with a powerful storm coming up the Eastern Seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 There could be some monster waves on Lake Michigan especially if the western tracks pan out. With a full fetch, sustained winds of 40mph+ and gusts to 50mph+ on that run, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 00z GFS looks west of 18z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Certainly could be a wild end of October for much of Ohio... with wind gusts up to 50-60mph and a chance of rain/snow mix. Just amazing how this storm works though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 How would it look for us in western michigan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 00z is lovely for SEMI...70 kts at 900mb, showing gusts to 50kts on the surface and some snow as well. Starting to look forward to this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 00z is lovely for SEMI...70 kts at 900mb, showing gusts to 50kts on the surface and some snow as well. Starting to look forward to this... How about Northern and Northeastern IN??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Still ~970 mb in NW PA at 90 hours on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Poor Cleveland and eastern ohio, mercy child. Ditto Toronto. SImply sickening. That sucker is well inland, my god. This run might be even more impressive than that 00z Euro run from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 How would it look for us in western michigan? Well the further west you are, the lower your chances will be to see anything significant. But tough at this point to tell exactly how far west Sandy will be pulled in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 My birthday's on Tuesday and as of now according to the models including tonight's 0Z GFS, if any moisture/Flakes were to make it this far out west it would be on Tuesday. My point forecast looks amazing!! Tuesday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Would be one hell of a birthday present from mother nature!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm not saying this will be another Ike but it's interesting how we're apparently on the way toward another anomalous strong wind event from a transitioned tropical system. The return rate on these is not very frequent in the OV/Lakes area. This is almost an ideal scenario in a way...it gets a baroclinic assist prior to landfall and will have a massive/expanding wind field. most notable diff with IKE (for here at least), is that Ike had NO precip at all...not a drop of rain. It was a dry wind storm. As impressive as Ike was, it lasted about 6 hours. This monster coming in looks like it has some major staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 With a full fetch, sustained winds of 40mph+ and gusts to 50mph+ on that run, no doubt. GFS pretty much shows the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 00z is lovely for SEMI...70 kts at 900mb, showing gusts to 50kts on the surface and some snow as well. Starting to look forward to this... 80 kts of northerly flow at 850 mb on the GFS sounding for DTW at 12z Tue (though above the inversion). That is super impressive if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 80 kts of northerly flow at 850 mb on the GFS sounding for DTW at 12z Tue (though above the inversion). That is super impressive if it happens. if the EURO and GFS has it's way, high wind warnings will be widespread across the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS pretty much shows the same. All the way over in IL too ya thinks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.