NEOH Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If I had to bet, regarding differences in GGEM, GFS, and Euro.... Even with the Euro consistency, I'd bet we see the euro begin to cave to the east and north solutions. Most of the mets in the NE subforum also seem to feel that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Lol. The ukie and the gefs made steps towards the ecm. gee, what was I thinking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Post tropical with hurricane force winds.. I've never seen that before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The 00z Euro was really almost a perfect case of maximizing inland conditions. Instead of slowing in the hours right after landfall, it just keeps barreling west. FWIW, 00z Euro ensemble mean was farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm still trying to wrap my brain around the idea of sustained 60 mph winds over Lake Erie. IIRC the flow would not have been over the lake for the blizzard of 78 and likewise for hurricane Ike remnants. I have no idea if there are storm surge models for Lake Erie, but you've got to wonder if that will be an issue. I can't think of any other events that would have produced 60 mph winds out of the NE for coastal Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 gee, what was I thinking.... lol. good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 12z Euro is slower and farther north. Looks like S NJ landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sits in Southern NJ for 24 hrs and then blasts NE----Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's going to be tricky to pin down the exact motion in this setup...does the phasing happen quicker and cause less of an initial eastward move or do we see more of a fujiwhara interaction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm still trying to wrap my brain around the idea of sustained 60 mph winds over Lake Erie. IIRC the flow would not have been over the lake for the blizzard of 78 and likewise for hurricane Ike remnants. I have no idea if there are storm surge models for Lake Erie, but you've got to wonder if that will be an issue. I can't think of any other events that would have produced 60 mph winds out of the NE for coastal Ohio. A storm surge is definitely possible for Lake Erie or any Great Lake. Happens on the southern end of Lake Michigan once every year or every other year - usually in the winter. Newest NHC forecast map cone. Looks like they are siding with the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 EURO still looks windy for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 EURO still looks windy for us... So is the GFS! ~ Trent you better have everything nailed down at your place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 There will be damage here along the coastline. The shore to west of Cleveland is the most densely populated place between Chicago and the East Coast. You have a lot of buildings and a ton of huge oak trees with intact leaves, combine that with wet soils from a very wet fall and strong winds coming directly from the lake and there will be fallen trees everywhere, and when they fall they go through rooftops. As exciting as this may be, I know it spells damage here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Latest satellite image of Frankenstorm. It has 2 eyes!: Sorry Hoosier, I had to post this. You can ban me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 BAMD FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 BAMD FTW Quite the outlier, but I'd take it. This storm is fun enough. That track would be even more amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That's probably being conservative at this point. 000 FXUS61 KCLE 262000 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 400 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012 .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ATTENTION FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL STRUGGLE TO GET WEST OF CENTRAL PA BEFORE DRIFTING INTO EASTERN NY ON WEDNESDAY. THE REGION SHOULD SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THE MAIN STORY FOR NORTHERN OHIO INTO NW PA APPEARS TO BE THE WIND. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE A GOOD BET WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE BY MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PROLONGED BATTERING FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION COULD TOPPLE MORE TREES THAN USUAL. SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That's probably being conservative at this point. 000 FXUS61 KCLE 262000 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 400 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012 .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ATTENTION FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL STRUGGLE TO GET WEST OF CENTRAL PA BEFORE DRIFTING INTO EASTERN NY ON WEDNESDAY. THE REGION SHOULD SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THE MAIN STORY FOR NORTHERN OHIO INTO NW PA APPEARS TO BE THE WIND. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE A GOOD BET WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE BY MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PROLONGED BATTERING FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION COULD TOPPLE MORE TREES THAN USUAL. SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. Areas near the lake at least should be able to gust higher. There are really strong winds just off the deck at CLE (18z GFS has 900 mb winds of 65 kt at 96 hours). Precip is a double edge sword...on the one hand it could cause enough low level stability to keep gusts a bit in check but on the other hand the high winds may be able to mix down in heavier bursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18z GFS throws some a bone and snows on us here in northeast IL weds morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't want to jinx it, but the odds this goes out to sea is quite miniscule at this point ... but wow at the Euro for sniffing this one out over 5 days ago now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18z GFS throws some a bone and snows on us here in northeast IL weds morning. Awesome! Looks like the 18z brings Sandy into Sandy Hook, NJ! Winds are really going to whipping back here too. ... at the satellite image! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't want to jinx it, but the odds this goes out to sea is quite miniscule at this point ... but wow at the Euro for sniffing this one out over 5 days ago now! Actually the GGEM showed this monster storm a day or two before the Euro latched on to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Satellite may look junky but the pressure is falling again...now below 970. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah, but then it lost it. The fact of the matter is it (GGEM) showed it first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Heading to Bloomington Illinois. Passed a convoy of 30-40 utility and tree trimming trucks heading east. I guess they are staging crews already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 How is this looking for the Toronto and southern Ontario region? The 18z GFS scenario would seem to have Sandy hitting us with high winds, possibly close to tropical storm force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 How is this looking for the Toronto and southern Ontario region? The 18z GFS scenario would seem to have Sandy hitting us with high winds, possibly close to tropical storm force. I was wondering the same thing. I don't think many people in Toronto have a clue about this storm. It's expected to rain a lot this weekend with the passage of a slow-moving cold front. The addition of even more rain this weekend could really be a problem with the ground already being so saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just drove to southern Ohio and passed a convoy of about a dozen utility trucks headed north on 71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just drove to southern Ohio and passed a convoy of about a dozen utility trucks headed north on 71 Probably a good thing to follow the $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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